Analyst claims Halo 3 will perform better than GTA IV

[archangelmorph]

Link:

http://gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=22884


Grand Theft Auto IV may only enjoy modest sales when its launched later this year, due to competition from another highly anticipated gaming franchise, Halo 3.

Analyst Michael Pachter sees a more loyal following for the Bungie sci-fi shooter than Rockstar's urban crime sim, while a small installed base of next-gen console owners and increased competition from the Nintendo Wii will also hamper sales.

The analyst detailed a significant number of warnings over the future of publisher Take-Two, including concern about profitability, the performance of the rest of its gaming portfolio and the possible loss of key creative staff.

"We expect only modest results for Grand Theft Auto IV when it launches this Fall," said Pachter.

"Although we expect demand to be high, we think that the addressable market will be quite small, with only approximately 13 - 14 million Xbox 360 owners at launch and only around 5 - 6 million PS3 owners in the US and Europe," he detailed.

"GTA IV may attach at a slower rate than many anticipate, given that it is expected to launch in the same window as Halo 3 on the Xbox 360. In our view, Xbox 360 owners who choose to buy only one of the two games at launch will opt to buy Halo 3 first, because of its well-developed online gameplay and fiercely loyal fan base."

The opinions on Grand Theft Auto IV are one of a number of blows the analyst dished out in it's latest note to investors.

Wedbush Morgan also believes that apart from the GTA license, Take-Two has a poor portfolio of titles, including a sports division struggling to turn a profit.

"We think that Take-Two's flagship franchise, Grand Theft Auto, will continue to generate significant profits, but are less optimistic about the profit potential from its sports business and from everything else," said Pachter.

The analyst believes that the publisher has made erratic choices in the pursuit of profits over the past two years.

"Other content is the wild card for Take-Two," he said.

"We think that the company's strategy over the last two years has been unsound, as it appears to us to have chased revenues from any source without regard to the profit potential of the game," he commented.

Wedbush has downgraded Take-Two's stock to 'sell'. The company also lists the ongoing corporate investigations by the SEC and the quitting of key employees such as former COO Gary Lewis and co-founder of Rockstar Games, Terry Donovan, as other key factors in making Take Two a risky company to invest in.

"We think that there remains significant risk at the company," said Wedbush.

"This risk consists of ongoing risks from the NY DA investigation, the risk that the company could lose key talent that is responsible for its flagship game, the risk that GTA may decline in popularity, and the risk that the company's recent losses are not a reflection of the console transition, but are instead a symptom of bad decisions."

"We think it is is important to note that while Take-Two lost an estimated US $70 million in calendar 2006, its closest competitors were all profitable," concluded the analyst.

Hahahahaha!

I can't believe they ACTUALLY think that GTA IV will ever come out this yr!!!!

:lol: :lol:

[Dr Evil]

Hahahahaha!

I can't believe they ACTUALLY think that GTA IV will ever come out this yr!!!!

:lol: :lol:

Well I do too... why wouldn't it?
and I'm pretty sure it will sell well.

[scooby_dooby]

Lol, Pachter has set an altime low for the quality in his predictions. Has he taken a look at the attach rates for AA next gen titles yet??

With new IP's like GoW selling 3million+, he's worried about the install base for GTA4?? And he truly does not understand the console market if he thinks GTA and Halo 3 are really competing with eachother.

[Fu3lFr3nzy]

Well I do too... why wouldn't it?
and I'm pretty sure it will sell well.

I agree. I dont see what else can make the game delayed to 2008.

It will definately sell well. In a way he's right. I know a couple of people that will buy Halo 3 over GTAIV in a heartbeat if they only had $60, but, those same people are very much considering buying both games.

And of course, theres still the PS3 userbase. Outside the X360 userbase, no one else cares about Halo 3 so I can definately see PS3 owners buying GTAIV as their AAA title this year(or am I failing to see a bigger picture :oops: )

[TheChefO]

I think the bigger problem is available userbase and cost of entry.

GTA3 sold on a large userbase that was cheap (~$200) to get into if you wanted GTA3 but didn't yet have a ps2. PS3 on the other hand is significantly more expensive and it will likely have less than the 20million+ userbase ps2 had when gta3 hit. XBox360 is also likely to have a smaller userbase and (potentially) higher price point of entry.

[Dr Evil]

I agree. I dont see what else can make the game delayed to 2008.

It will definately sell well. In a way he's right. I know a couple of people that will buy Halo 3 over GTAIV in a heartbeat if they only had $60, but, those same people are very much considering buying both games.

And of course, theres still the PS3 userbase. Outside the X360 userbase, no one else cares about Halo 3 so I can definately see PS3 owners buying GTAIV as their AAA title this year(or am I failing to see a bigger picture :oops: )

Yes exactly, PS3 owners will feast on GTA 4 and eventhough most X360-owners like myself would choose Halo 3 over GTA, there is enough cash for both.

[Laa-Yosh]

They need to get GTA 4 out in the first half of this generation - so that they can release at least another 2-3 GTA games using the same technology, to make as much money on the franchise as possible ;)

[Cheezdoodles]

Doesnt the X360 have like the strongest attach rate so early compared to any console in history?

Im pretty sure people can afford to buy both.

[dobwal]

I think Pachter's opinion is based on the fact that Halo was the more popular title of the two games on the Xbox. In addition, I think he assumes that the majority of the xbox 360 were sold to xbox owners. Therefore, with the 360 having a higher userbase in 2007, Halo will sales more than GTA on the 360 and the PS3 combined.

I think that Halo 3 outselling the GTA4 is possible. But I also think Pacter's logic is flawed. First GTA on the Xbox suffered from its step child status. GTA Xbox interations were always released after the PS2 version which means any multi-console owners who owned both consoles usually purchased the PS2 version. Thus, allowing the PS2 GTA to eat into the potential market of the Xbox's GTA. Furthermore, the marketing for the xbox versions weren't as extensive as the PS2 version creating less anticipation for the xbox titles.

Releasing both on the PS3 and the 360 allows each platform to compete equally for GTA dollars, with each able to take advantage of the huge marketing campaign and initial anticipation. We will find out whose the more popular title when on the same platform.

I doubt Halo would of seen the same level of success if it had first been released on the PS2 and came to the xbox almost as an afterthought.

[TheChefO]

I think Pachter's opinion is based on the fact that Halo was the more popular title of the two games on the Xbox. In addition, I think he assumes that the majority of the xbox 360 were sold to xbox owners. Therefore, with the 360 having a higher userbase in 2007, Halo will sales more than GTA on the 360 and the PS3 combined.

I think that Halo 3 outselling the GTA4 is possible. But I also think Pacter's logic is flawed. First GTA on the Xbox suffered from its step child status. GTA Xbox interations were always released after the PS2 version which means any multi-console owners who owned both consoles usually purchased the PS2 version. Thus, allowing the PS2 GTA to eat into the potential market of the Xbox's GTA. Furthermore, the marketing for the xbox versions weren't as extensive as the PS2 version creating less anticipation for the xbox titles.

Releasing both on the PS3 and the 360 allows each platform to compete equally for GTA dollars, with each able to take advantage of the huge marketing campaign and initial anticipation. We will find out whose the more popular title when on the same platform.

I doubt Halo would of seen the same level of success if it had first been released on the PS2 and came to the xbox almost as an afterthought.

Great post.

Personally I think GTA4 has the potential to sell more, but this has more to do with how the individual games turn out than anything else.

If GTA4 is more of the same with a new layer of semigloss and Halo3 rewrites the book on FPS standards of excellence, well it isn't hard to imagine which would sell more. Reverse the situation and the opposite result would surely occur.

Both great - who cares which sells more as they would both enjoy a healthy profit.:grin:

[archangelmorph]

Great post.

Personally I think GTA4 has the potential to sell more, but this has more to do with how the individual games turn out than anything else.

If GTA4 is more of the same with a new layer of semigloss and Halo3 rewrites the book on FPS standards of excellence, well it isn't hard to imagine which would sell more. Reverse the situation and the opposite result would surely occur.

Both great - who cares which sells more as they would both enjoy a healthy profit.:grin:

Consider the Halo demographic for a second..

I'd say that the vast majority of Halo owners probably bought GTA on the Xbox on release..

Now considering that same demographic, If GTA DID see release sometime this yr then i'd fuly expect GTA to superceed Halo 3 in sales purely because it would hit multiple-platofrms as opposed to Halo 3's singular, and i'm sure GTA will continue to appeal to the Halo players, the non-FPS-centric xbox360 owners, AND the long-time fans of the GTA series who are enthusiastic PS3 owners and have very few other AAA titles coming on the platform to get excited about.. Especially since by that point the PS3 will still be a mass swell of hardcore gamers with more money than sense, long time playstation fanatics and fans of the GTA series (as is the vast majority of the games industry)...

However I stand my ground in the belief that, considering the immense void of information, media and hype surrounding the next-gen GTA game (where's the bloody flash site they always put online about a yr before the game goes gold???), that GTA IV will never see relase this side of new yrs 2008...

Just my oppinion.. Feel free to disagree.. :wink:

[dobwal]

However I stand my ground in the belief that, considering the immense void of information, media and hype surrounding the next-gen GTA game (where's the bloody flash site they always put online about a yr before the game goes gold???), that GTA IV will never see relase this side of new yrs 2008...

Isn't that typical of GTA games that besides some cheeky website there always seem to be a lack of information just to prior to release?

[Hardknock]

"We think it is is important to note that while Take-Two lost an estimated US $70 million in calendar 2006, its closest competitors were all profitable," concluded the analyst.

How in the world did they lose 70 million dollars last year??

[TheChefO]

How in the world did they lose 70 million dollars last year??

GTA4 must be INCREDIBLE! :shock:


:lol:

[TurnDragoZeroV2G]

Consider the Halo demographic for a second..

I'd say that the vast majority of Halo owners probably bought GTA on the Xbox on release..

I've honestly seen more to the contrary. Of the 10 people I know in real life who bought Halo 1 and 2, and played it a lot, only 2 of them bought GTA. One of them on PS2, actually. Of the rest, some of us had played GTA, but I know that my good friend and I couldn't care less about GTA.

I can take a look at two of my nephews (brothers), and one used to play GTA quite a bit. He likes Halo, but not as much as most of the people referenced above. On the other hand, his brother could easily be described as a Halo fanboy, yet I never saw him play much of any GTA on PS2.

Just a sidenote, not commenting on anything else.

[Hayter]

GTA4 will be a huge decline from SA. It has lost some mindshare. Exclusive-deal would make it hot again.


However I stand my ground in the belief that, considering the immense void of information, media and hype surrounding the next-gen GTA game (where's the bloody flash site they always put online about a yr before the game goes gold???), that GTA IV will never see relase this side of new yrs 2008...

http://www.rockstargames.com/grandtheftauto4/

[dobwal]

GTA4 will be a huge decline from SA. It has lost some mindshare. Exclusive-deal would make it hot again.

Mindshare was lost because its not time exclusive?

I could fathom that thought on the basis that GTA being exclusive on one of the platform would elicit more chatter of GTA4 in the PS3 vs. 360 discussion. But, GTA4 doesn't need that inclusion in useless debates in forums all over net to generate demand. All GTA4 has to do to generate demand is to show a more interactive world than SA, inclusion of a well acted cutscenes that insinuate a grand story and theme and the GTA logo and its mayhem all over again.

[TheChefO]

All GTA4 has to do to generate demand is to show a more interactive world than SA, inclusion of a well acted cutscenes that insinuate a grand story and theme and the GTA logo and its mayhem all over again.

or

GTA logo

...

its mayhem all over again

:razz:

Seriously I don't think this title needs much buzz. A small clip at e3 should be all that's necessary. Followed by a commercial or two stating it's coming the week prior and that should do the trick.:wink:

The people that bought gta3 a,b,c, are already asking their local game shops/ searching the net I'm sure.

If the concensus reviews say it's garbage then who knows. Otherwise it's gold. Same for Halo3

[Deepblue]

At the risk of getting myself in trouble...I fall into the Halo as an automatic purchase, and GTA as a enticing maybe, but hey I have Crackdown, what more do I need? :wink:

GTA4 is going to have to do a LOT to convince 360 buyers because Crackdown is just so much fun to play, even if it doesn't have the variety of GTA.

[mckmas8808]

Lol, Pachter has set an altime low for the quality in his predictions. Has he taken a look at the attach rates for AA next gen titles yet??

With new IP's like GoW selling 3million+, he's worried about the install base for GTA4?? And he truly does not understand the console market if he thinks GTA and Halo 3 are really competing with eachother.


I completely agree. And I mean isn't GTA IV going to be on two systems day one this time? I'd be surprised if Halo 3 sold more.

[mckmas8808]

GTA4 is going to have to do a LOT to convince 360 buyers because Crackdown is just so much fun to play, even if it doesn't have the variety of GTA.


GTA4 will be 100x different than Crackdown. R* is nothing to worry about when it comes to Crackdown.

[Crossbar]

They need to get GTA 4 out in the first half of this generation - so that they can release at least another 2-3 GTA games using the same technology, to make as much money on the franchise as possible ;)

I think there is a lot of truth in that. GTA is a cow that can be milked, and she will be milked regulary.

What I would like to know is what will Sonys answer to Halo3 be, will they try to outshine/spoil it by using some high profile title in the same genre or something completely different or will they just ride out the wave and follow their own path?

MS release date of Gears of War was such an obvious attempt to steal attention from the PS3s launch titles I wonder if that kind of behaviour will be common practise for high profile first party titles in the future.

[Hardknock]

I think there is a lot of truth in that. GTA is a cow that can be milked, and she will be milked regulary.

What I would like to know is what will Sonys answer to Halo3 be, will they try to outshine/spoil it by using some high profile title in the same genre or something completely different or will they just ride out the wave and follow their own path?

MS release date of Gears of War was such an obvious attempt to steal attention from the PS3s launch titles I wonder if that kind of behaviour will be common practise for high profile first party titles in the future.

It's pretty common place. Killzone was released around Halo 2 wasn't it? I can imagine Killzone 2 being positioned to counter Halo 3 this fall.

[Crossbar]

It's pretty common place. Killzone was released around Halo 2 wasn't it? I can imagine Killzone 2 being positioned to counter Halo 3 this fall.

Yeah, you are right. This is was wiki says:
Killzone received a great deal of hype in June 2003 when video game websites began releasing previews and rumors about the game. Most fans of Sony's second-generation console had been waiting for a game to top Microsoft's Halo: Combat Evolved, which has been released for its Xbox gaming system. Halo was a huge success, and was the best-selling Xbox game at the time, which led to PlayStation fans to dub Killzone the "Halo Killer".

We all know what happened, will history repeat itself? Actually I would be surprised if Killzone was released this year, Sony will probably not be releasing it before it is ready anyhow.
There will be several good multiplayer FPS available for PS3 this fall such as Warhawk and Unreal Tournament, so they are probably not in a hurry to get Killzone out of the door.

[Cheezdoodles]

There will be several good multiplayer FPS available for PS3 this fall such as Warhawk and Unreal Tournament, so they are probably not in a hurry to get Killzone out of the door.

What? Warhawk will be a good multi FPS game?

I thought Warhawk was mainly a flying game...

Oh and i see Ken Kutagari was right, the PS3 is really 4d, how else did you travel forward in time, try out 2 games that arent released, and go back?

[TheChefO]

What I would like to know is what will Sonys answer to Halo3 be

Killzone2

If it's not ready for a live demonstration, expect a believable cgi vid (in-engine cut scene rendered off-line with all settings maxed).

They won't show a WIP of this franchise that casts doubt (negatively or positively). Sony may decide to wait until MS shows their hand and base their decision on what/when to show based how on Halo3 singleplayer shapes up.

[Rangers]

Halo probably will outsell GTA, do you know why? Because when GTA comes out the console with more userbase in the USA will not be playstation this time around, it will be Xbox. And Xbox owners will likely choose Halo over GTA. Therefore, by default, Halo will have a edge.

Also, I think the GTA formula grew tired incredibly fast. There's no real way to iterate on it..

[TheChefO]

Halo probably will outsell GTA, do you know why? Because when GTA comes out the console with more userbase in the USA will not be playstation this time around, it will be Xbox. And Xbox owners will likely choose Halo over GTA. Therefore, by default, Halo will have a edge.

Also, I think the GTA formula grew tired incredibly fast. There's no real way to iterate on it..

I agree with your assessment however what of the gta fans that want GTA4, yet have only a ps2?

Will they cough up $500-600 for ps3 or $300-400 for xb360 to get their gta4 fix?

I am of the opinion both will see a $100 pricedrop by late this year. Leaving this scenario:

$400-500 for ps3 or $200-300 for xb360 to get their gta4 fix

If Gta4 is marketed at all and the reviews are as favorable as they have been in the past, expect the core to sell out quick along with open space behind the gta4 stickers on shelves.

[baten]

I bought an xbox1 just to play halo 2, since everybody was so high on that game - and although the game was good, I felt cheated since that was the most "expensive" game I ever played, and I didnt felt like it was worth all that money. (I ended up playing also KOTOR and a couple of other xbox only games in the end to level up the costs and finally I sold them all).
I will never to this again with the 360, and I'm not planing to buy even a PS3 anytime soon, the old PS2 still does the trick for me for the moment.
I cannot see Halo 3 evolving to a MUCH better gaming experience, as it is "only" a FPS. On the other hand, GTA4 has a huge potential of improvement over every aspect of the gameplay in SanAndreeas.

[Johnny Awesome]

At the risk of getting myself in trouble...I fall into the Halo as an automatic purchase, and GTA as a enticing maybe, but hey I have Crackdown, what more do I need? :wink:

I'm in the same camp. I might get GTAIV, but Crackdown is more my style and Halo 3 is automatic for me.

[Crossbar]

What? Warhawk will be a good multi FPS game?

I thought Warhawk was mainly a flying game...?
From the TGS hands-on video it looked more like a Battlefield type of game to me, maybe a bad choice.

Oh and i see Ken Kutagari was right, the PS3 is really 4d, how else did you travel forward in time, try out 2 games that arent released, and go back?Yes, you are right I don´t know if they will be good games. We don´t know if GTA4 or Halo3 will be good games either, which makes the thread kind of pointless, maybe we should ask the mods to close the thread?

BTW I don´t have a PS3, so I can´t travel in time yet. :wink:

[AntShaw]

Killzone2

If it's not ready for a live demonstration, expect a believable cgi vid (in-engine cut scene rendered off-line with all settings maxed).

They won't show a WIP of this franchise that casts doubt (negatively or positively). Sony may decide to wait until MS shows their hand and base their decision on what/when to show based how on Halo3 singleplayer shapes up.


While this make complete sense, and will most likely be what we see for Killzone2, this is just going to be a repeat of Killzone1 vs Halo 2.

We were fed a steady dose of high quality footage prior to Killzone, only to find out we were playing a game that wasn't even close to the same level of Halo 2.

All we are being setup for right now is a letdown in the final product of Killzone 2. It will be no competion with Halo 3, and thats even if Killzone2 sees any day of light in 2007 (calendar.)

With that being said, both GTAIV and Halo3 will sell over 4-5 million copies a piece. With Halo3 being exclusive, it gets the nod.

[spwolf]

I agree. I dont see what else can make the game delayed to 2008.

It will definately sell well. In a way he's right. I know a couple of people that will buy Halo 3 over GTAIV in a heartbeat if they only had $60, but, those same people are very much considering buying both games.

And of course, theres still the PS3 userbase. Outside the X360 userbase, no one else cares about Halo 3 so I can definately see PS3 owners buying GTAIV as their AAA title this year(or am I failing to see a bigger picture :oops: )

I think main point will be PS2 userbase, who have purchased previous GTA titles in millions and hence will be moving up to PS3.

If that happens, then yes, GTAIV will have great sales.

Halo on the other hand, has currently bigger installed base of consoles, so first month sales will be better for sure.

Always hated the GTA though.

[Cheezdoodles]

I think main point will be PS2 userbase, who have purchased previous GTA titles in millions and hence will be moving up to PS3.
.

90% of the PS2 userbase bought their consoles at $200 or less, so if you actually think that the ps2 userbase will all be moving to the PS3, it might take a good while.

Which means GTA4 wont sell all that well, because, in 3 years when the PS3 is $200, nobody will care about GTA4.

[spwolf]

90% of the PS2 userbase bought their consoles at $200 or less, so if you actually think that the ps2 userbase will all be moving to the PS3, it might take a good while.

Which means GTA4 wont sell all that well, because, in 3 years when the PS3 is $200, nobody will care about GTA4.

and nobody would buy PS3 without any games, yet look at us know :-).

[infinity4]

an analyst talking about games he has never played, for one game he hasn't even saw a screenshot or single gameplay info, is pathetic

[Cheezdoodles]

and nobody would buy PS3 without any games, yet look at us know :-).

What? People do buy PS3 without any games, that is evident from the attach ratios.

[scooby_dooby]

I think main point will be PS2 userbase, who have purchased previous GTA titles in millions and hence will be moving up to PS3.

If that happens, then yes, GTAIV will have great sales.

Like 80% of those people bought the PS2 at $200 or less. Assuming pricedrops of $100 all around by then, what in the world makes you think they'll be willing to spend $399 on a PS3 when they can get a 360 core for $199?

Granted, many will migrate from PS2 and PS3 through brand loysalty, but many also bought the PS2 in the first place because of it's low price, and these people if they really want to play GTA will most likely by the cheaper 360, it's simply dollars and cents.

[Fillibuster]

Another deciding factor could be DC. 360 will get a few more episodic downloads, but PS3 owners will get new areas to explore with missions...that could sway people more than the price if they are looking for a certain kind of replayability

[assen]

Another deciding factor could be DC. 360 will get a few more episodic downloads, but PS3 owners will get new areas to explore with missions...that could sway people more than the price if they are looking for a certain kind of replayability

Can you please provide a link with evidence that the downloadables will be fundamentally different? I don't think I've seen anything of the kind.

[Acert93]

Not that it matters, but I think Halo 3 will outsell GTAIV in 2007. The 360 install base has a huge Halo fanbase and will also have a large install base lead through 2007. Between the beta and the free maps this summer being 360 only MS is pushing the Halo fans onto the 360 in 2007. Looking at Gears sales I can easily see Halo 3 (with all the hype MS will have behind it as THE 360 title) breaking 4M in 2007.

There are a lot of factors (like how good they are, hype and marketing, PS3 install base growth, competition), but looking at the ratios last gen we see Halo 2 with over 7M copies on 24M machines and GTAs each selling in the 10M range or so on 130M total machines (or more with the PC). So while Halo is limited to a small market it dominates a larger percentage of that market. So using some rough numbers, if MS has ~18M units by the end of FY2007 and Sony has ~12M by the end of FY2007, using the rough proportions from last gen MS would break 4M Halo copies and Rockstar would be about 2-3M. I know this is really a crude methodology but hey, I wanna be like the analysts!

Now what could really throw a wrench in this is if Halo 3 underwhealms and GTAIV is absolutely the BEST game on both systems. PS3 fans could flock to it and Xbox 360 fans would need to get the bitter taste of Halo out of their mouths. Of course GTAIV has a stigma and age issue, but then again how many pre-teens are buying $500 consoles?

[Fillibuster]

Can you please provide a link with evidence that the downloadables will be fundamentally different? I don't think I've seen anything of the kind.

It's been out there for a long time, this was just the first link I found from a google search...
http://www.eurogamer.net/article.php?article_id=68768

[assen]

It's been out there for a long time, this was just the first link I found from a google search...
http://www.eurogamer.net/article.php?article_id=68768

Well, that's the same announcement I've read, and I don't read in it that the types of add-ons will be fundamentally different - one of the platforms will get additional island X with three additional missions there, the other will get additional island Y with its own three missions.

[Johnny Awesome]

Halo 2 sold 7.89 million copies on Xbox according to vgcharts. I'm expecting Halo 2 to hit 4.5 million right out of the gate in 2007. Eventually it will probably outsell Halo 2 IMO. GTAIV will do well and it's tough to make a call on which will do better. They'll both sell incredibly well.

[Nesh]

If what mr Gates said is true that most 360 owners didnt own an XBOX beforehand(which means they didnt get their hands on Halo before), if we consider that many of these owners are also huge GTA fans, that GTA has broken selling records, that GTA and Halo belong to different genres and that GTA will exist not on 1 console but on 2 and probably the PC at the same time I see no way of being able to jump to conclusions regarding which is going to sell the most

GTA and Halo arent as correlated with each other in my opinion as the analysts are making them to sound. Also there is no real measure of people who will only opt to buy one game instead of both or one at launch and the other one on a very short period later.

But perhaps they used some kind of statistics that estimated some behaviours which indicated to this and I could be wrong

[TheChefO]

Of course GTAIV has a stigma and age issue, but then again how many pre-teens are buying $500 consoles?

Not many, but a <$200 console makes a compelling gift option. :wink:

Christmas 2007 possible options:
$200 core + Forza2
$200 core + Halo3
$200 core + *GTA4(not a kids game but many parents are ...ehem :sad: )
$200 core + platform game (possibly: Banjo, Viva2, Kameo2, etc)

$250 Wii + wiisports

$400 PS3 + Heavenly Sword
$400 PS3 + GTA4(not a kids game but many parents are ...ehem :sad: )
$400 PS3 + ?


*I still think MS screwed up big time by not making Crackdown a pg13 game.

[mckmas8808]

Where is this $200 core coming from? You think they will sell the system cheaper than what the Wii cost?

[TheChefO]

Where is this $200 core coming from? You think they will sell the system cheaper than what the Wii cost?

No facts, just an assumption based on historical timing and amount of price drops. :wink:

As for Wii, they have no reason to drop the price yet. When the market softens, they can consider it. They may decide to match the 360 core price by removing Wii sports but I don't think Nintendo is worried with what MS/Sony are charging/offering yet.

[mckmas8808]

No facts, just an assumption based on historical timing and amount of price drops. :wink:

But wouldn't it be smart to drop the price to $250 or something higher than that?

[NERO]

I'm positive that Halo 3 will perform better than GTA4 - on the Xbox360. Overall GT4 will likely outsell Halo. Joshua's reasoning makes sense other than not accounting for the PS3 not having any other games in the crucial 07 fall season but MGS4. In the Fall season Halo 3 will be the must-have app for the 360 with GTA4 coming second. For the PS3 GTA4 will be the must-have app for it with MGS4 being a close second (MGS does not sell like GTA though I like the former much more). So even though the reasoning is simplistic I will take GTA4.

[mckmas8808]

I'm positive that Halo 3 will perform better than GTA4 - on the Xbox360. Overall GT4 will likely outsell Halo. Joshua's reasoning makes sense other than not accounting for the PS3 not having any other games in the crucial 07 fall season but MGS4. In the Fall season Halo 3 will be the must-have app for the 360 with GTA4 coming second. For the PS3 GTA4 will be the must-have app for it with MGS4 being a close second (MGS does not sell like GTA though I like the former much more). So even though the reasoning is simplistic I will take GTA4.


Trust me. PS3 will have more must haves than just MGS4 and GTA4 this holiday season.

[NERO]

I'm positive that Halo 3 will perform better than GTA4 - on the Xbox360. Overall GT4 will likely outsell Halo. Joshua's reasoning makes sense other than not accounting for the PS3 not having any other games in the crucial 07 fall season but MGS4. In the Fall season Halo 3 will be the must-have app for the 360 with GTA4 coming second. For the PS3 GTA4 will be the must-have app for it with MGS4 being a close second (MGS does not sell like GTA though I like the former much more). So even though the reasoning is simplistic I will take GTA4.

Ok there are a few more games that will be great. But in terms of sales there are the franchises above and then everything else.

[TheChefO]

I'm positive that Halo 3 will perform better than GTA4 - on the Xbox360. Overall GT4 will likely outsell Halo. Joshua's reasoning makes sense other than not accounting for the PS3 not having any other games in the crucial 07 fall season but MGS4. In the Fall season Halo 3 will be the must-have app for the 360 with GTA4 coming second. For the PS3 GTA4 will be the must-have app for it with MGS4 being a close second (MGS does not sell like GTA though I like the former much more). So even though the reasoning is simplistic I will take GTA4.

The other x-factor is how gta4 compares to Crackdown for xb360 sales. As it is Crackdown completely outclasses gta3. How gta4 will answer remains to be seen but if Crackdown continues to sell well, they may start second quessing the dollars they put up to secure equal launching of gta4.

Ps3 software sales will obviously lean to gta4. But how big will the userbase be by then that also appreciate a game like gta4? I'm curious what the overlap is right now of gta3 owners and ps3 owners.

I think even if Halo3 pulls another Halo2 (letdown) it will still sell very well. Especially if/when they hit the $200 pricepoint. :wink:

My vote, it's up to the games and marketing but overall I agree with Joshua,
I think Halo3 will take the cake.


@ NERO
Are you publicly arguing with yourself? ;)

[TheChefO]

Trust me. PS3 will have more must haves than just MGS4 and GTA4 this holiday season.

I wouldn't be surprised if they did. Then again, I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't.

What does the public q3 q4 launch lineup look like?

[mckmas8808]

I wouldn't be surprised if they did. Then again, I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't.

What does the public q3 q4 launch lineup look like?


Unfortuntely Sony isn't letting us know. But some potential games are Naughty Dog's Uncharted, NT's Heavenly Sword, and Insomniac's Rachet and Clank. That's the only 1st and 2nd party that I can think about right now.

And Devil May Cry 4 should be huge too.

[infinity4]

am i the only person who is looking forward to pro evo 7 for ps3??? was disgusted with 360 pes 6 version, hopefully konami keeps its policy, to always being generous to japs systems :twisted:

[scooby_dooby]

I'm positive that Halo 3 will perform better than GTA4 - on the Xbox360. Overall GT4 will likely outsell Halo. Joshua's reasoning makes sense other than not accounting for the PS3 not having any other games in the crucial 07 fall season but MGS4. In the Fall season Halo 3 will be the must-have app for the 360 with GTA4 coming second. For the PS3 GTA4 will be the must-have app for it with MGS4 being a close second (MGS does not sell like GTA though I like the former much more). So even though the reasoning is simplistic I will take GTA4.

The main prob;em with Josh's analysis imo, is that GTA was never available on XBOX from day 1, so it's not possible to accurately judge how many units the XBOX userbase would've purchased if they could've gotten it on day 1.

In addition, 50% of 360 owners did not own Xbox, which means they are probably ex Playstation owners, and also, not huge Halo fans.

Also, I think Halo 3 will suffer from the dissapointment of Halo 2. Halo 2 was riding on the success of Halo 1, and set records, but the game itself was a let down for many. I doubt Halo 3 will be more succesful or even as succesful as Halo 2.

GTA is riding on the red hot San Andreas, by a mile teh best game in the series, and assuming that the game itself is as awesome as it should be, I think it will be no contest, GTA all the way.

[NERO]

I just want to mention that my putting GTA4 (multi-platform) and Halo 3 above everything else is because of a borderline irrationality between consumers with loyalty to these two brands. Both games could be sub-par and still sell 5 million each. There is no fancy analysis involved. I feel that having two platforms and an overall install base will give GTA4 the edge. The PS2 to GTA attachment numbers are not necessarily relevant to the PS3. The PS2 reached a price point that made its install base expand but fracture. It was cheap enough to appeal to many folk for many different games, the Maddens, DDRs, GTAs and Katamaris of the world. There was no predictability with why who purchased what. The PS3 is not there and has a much smaller but growing base that needs more killer apps. Motor Storm will be the next but for the holidays GTA4 will be looming.

[infinity4]

i am sure majority of majority xbox 360 owners who never bought a xb before bought a 360 because of GTA IV announcement with exclusive contents. we cannot say anything about how good it will sell until we play the game. so far i have yet to get a single gameplay information from rockstar about the game.

edit: i am bad at wording english. sorry about that.

[TheChefO]

Trust me. PS3 will have more must haves than just MGS4 and GTA4 this holiday season...


...Unfortuntely Sony isn't letting us know. But some potential games are Naughty Dog's Uncharted, NT's Heavenly Sword, and Insomniac's Rachet and Clank. That's the only 1st and 2nd party that I can think about right now.

And Devil May Cry 4 should be huge too.

When did MGS4 get confirmed for this year?

[mckmas8808]

Why are people still comparing Crackdown to what GTA4 might/could be?

[infinity4]

Why are people still comparing Crackdown to what GTA4 might/could be?

exactly. people shouldn't be talking about game's success when nobody in the world knows about the game. i am shutting my mouth about how good the game is until it comes out on PS3. i was thinking of buying 360 version, but then i sold it because i was worried about rings of death :twisted:

[TheChefO]

exactly. people shouldn't be talking about game's success when nobody in the world knows about the game. i am shutting my mouth about how good the game is until it comes out on PS3. i was thinking of buying 360 version, but then i sold it because i was worried about rings of death :twisted:

2 Year Extended Warranty ftw :wink: $60

Crackdown compared to GTA is an obvious one. How GTA4 ends up is anyone's guess, but Crackdown is establishing what appears to be a rival franchise worth considering in the same space. I know for me personally GTA4 will have to significantly out-do Crackdown to be considred purchase worthy.

[infinity4]

2 Year Extended Warranty ftw :wink: $60

Crackdown compared to GTA is an obvious one. How GTA4 ends up is anyone's guess, but Crackdown is establishing what appears to be a rival franchise worth considering in the same space. I know for me personally GTA4 will have to significantly out-do Crackdown to be considred purchase worthy.

i was also thinking of getting vista a week ago, but thought that its too early.

i sold it for another reason thinking hdmi will be superior to component, but looking at this picture, i need to reconsider :twisted:

HDMI
http://ruliweb3.empas.com:8080/ruliboard/gup/img_screen_con/40706.jpg

Component
http://ruliweb3.empas.com:8080/ruliboard/gup/img_screen_con/40706_3.jpg

component looks far more realistic IMO

[TheChefO]

FYI-

Rockstar just licensed NaturalMotion for "future titles". Hopefully GTA has been built around it and isn't just slapped on.

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4826&Itemid=2

This company should be licensing this tech for every nextgen game. :smile:

Madden next. :grin: => reality => :cry:

[mckmas8808]

How GTA4 ends up is anyone's guess, but Crackdown is establishing what appears to be a rival franchise worth considering in the same space. I know for me personally GTA4 will have to significantly out-do Crackdown to be considred purchase worthy.

You should want to buy GTA4 anyways. As long as it's good. How can one franchise make you not want to buy another franchise?


And that's besides the point. NOBODY and I mean nobody has ever done open-ended games that's had story, music, character development, city/state level design, etc as good as Rockstar and their numbers show that.

What you and some other people are doing is comparing a next-gen title to what R* was doing on last gen technology. When it comes to the single player portion GTA III, Vice City, and San Andreas did things that no other game on the Xbox and PS2 were doing.

So it's really not fair to GTA4 to compare it to Crackdown right now. Hell it's not fair to Crackdown either. That game is good in its own right. No need to be compared to GTA4.

[PG2G]

You should want to buy GTA4 anyways. As long as it's good. How can one franchise make you not want to buy another franchise?

Crackdown raised the bar :P

[mckmas8808]

Because Crackdown is fun, and past GTAs (to me)... not so much.


Oh well that's different. I thought he was saying that GTA was fun for him, but he didn't want to buy it because Crackdown was out.

And Crackdown should have raised the bar. It's a next-gen game.

[TheChefO]

What you and some other people are doing is comparing a next-gen title to what R* was doing on last gen technology. When it comes to the single player portion GTA III, Vice City, and San Andreas did things that no other game on the Xbox and PS2 were doing.


Agreed, we don't know what GTA4 is going to do. However, what I'm saying is Crackdown has raised the gta bar for me personally. GTA4 may blow Crackdown completely out of the water, or it may not. They are different in some aspects and similar in some as well. We will have to wait and see what Rockstar has up their sleeve, but if its GTA + graphics polish, I think I'll stick with Crackdown.

[Tap In]

i sold it for another reason thinking hdmi will be superior to component, but looking at this picture, i need to reconsider :twisted:


component looks far more realistic IMO

on my TV, component looks better than my HDMI inputs.

to assume that HDMI is a superior format, other than to have security features (allowing 1080p movies) and to carry audio as well as video is a mistake IMO.