View Full Version : PS3 is a nuclear accident waiting to happen?
If all the PS3 speculations have some truth in them, will Sony Playstation face its first defeat in a decade?
Hundreds of Cells?
Distributed grid computing?
Downloading games from Sonynet?
Massively parallel hardware?
Broadband everything?
We might have delays, high cost hardware, high development costs, infrastructure problems. Bad for Sony, bad for consumers and bad for developers.
It sounds like a very humongous mission ahead of Sony if they want to fulfil their visions. Is Sony really up to the task? Will their lack of IT specialities impair their work?
What ways can Sony do the advert this impending calamity?
This is not an anti Sony topic, i love my PS2. I just need to hear some views regarding Sony's choices. :oops:
sergio_r
15-Dec-2002, 17:06
I dont know the details of course, but the whole distributed computing thing seems totally weird.
Wonder if it will suck.
I dont fancy the ps3 sucking cycles to render a square from the cpu in my microwave
i really wish they'd pick something with a more simple design.
Hundreds of Cells?
Distributed grid computing?
Downloading games from Sonynet?
Massively parallel hardware?
Broadband everything?
I would think the only major problem areas there are Distributed Grid Computing, and massively parallel hardware. The latter will once again present devs with a difficult a platform to program, deja vu PS2. The former is just too publicly undefined to know for sure how it will be used, but it certainly appears that even the broadband internet is too laggy to do real-time games on a distributed network. Downloading games and broadband won't be a major issue in 2005, just implement a large hdd and hope that broadband penetration will be much greater from 2005 - 2010. It probably will be, and there may still be a DVD drive so peeps who don't have broadband can still buy/rent games.
I dont fancy the ps3 sucking cycles to render a square from the cpu in my microwave
I've been wondering about that too, and my conclusion so far is that this is all a massive hype job by Sony. I believe that PS3 games will be rendered completely and only by the onboard CPU and GPU. No real-time gfx, AI, physics, or other gameplay will be farmed out to any kind of distributed network, as there is just too much lag on the Internet for that.
Rather, I think PS3's purported "grid" will be a more advanced version of Xbox Live's current P2P network. Maybe the Cell will even have the ethernet controller built in, instead of a separate CPU/MCP of the Xbox. And for the games that require central servers (mmorpgs, namely), I expect PS3s will be designed to network together into server farms to serve that purpose. Sony may be attempting to standardize their entire entertainment services infrastructure, from client PS3s to the servers, on a single machine. That would improve their hardware economy of scale, and provide a competing platform to the PC, at least in the gaming market, and possibly in other entertainment/content delivery markets. I won't be surprised if they base the software (at least for the servers) on Linux, seeing as how they've been experimenting with Linux on PS2 already. Maybe the Linux kernel and a custom GUI for the PS3 clients?
So fwiw, that's my prediction based on Sony's hype and what we know of grid networks. Basically I don't buy their hype, but the details on the capabilities of the Cell and its infrastructure are still sketchy.
CaptainHowdy
15-Dec-2002, 23:48
I agree if all is true, it will be a flop, people are just not getting a PS2, in 2004, they will not be ready for a new console, especially not a $400 console.
i really wish they'd pick something with a more simple design.
Yes true.
Your average consumers are not too adaptable to sweeping changes. Xbox 2 with the familiar PC architecture might prove to be Sony downfall. :(
archie4oz
16-Dec-2002, 04:53
So fwiw, that's my prediction based on Sony's hype and what we know of grid networks. Basically I don't buy their hype, but the details on the capabilities of the Cell and its infrastructure are still sketchy.
I don't know if I'd really call it 'hype' yet, especially since details are as you put it "sketchy". Any less so, you wouldn't know it existed!
Your average consumers are not too adaptable to sweeping changes. Xbox 2 with the familiar PC architecture might prove to be Sony downfall.
IIRC your average consumer has a tendency to just go with the flow. And I'm sure that most consumers are relatively clueless to the architecture of the internals inside the little box that plays their games...
IIRC your average consumer has a tendency to just go with the flow. And I'm sure that most consumers are relatively clueless to the architecture of the internals inside the little box that plays their games...
I meant if Ps2 has to download games and all and has to share cpu time, it might be confusing to the consumers and not the internals.
randycat99
16-Dec-2002, 05:23
Couldn't be any worse than getting Xbox Live up and running...
http://www.tomshardware.com/game/20021214/xbox_live-02.html
Aside from that, as long as the tech stuff is invisible to the user, they aren't going to care who makes it or how it produces the results it does- just that fun is to be had. That's the whole point of consoles, after all.
BTW, all of the hasty predictions by naysayers seem to be awfully similar to those bandied about when PS2 was just out and XBox was on the horizon. I don't know about other people, but I find it exciting that Sony is trying something radically different instead of same old, same old. Maybe it will flop, maybe it will redefine the SOTA of computer architecture. Who knows, honestly? I sure don't look forward to yet another x86/nVidia incarnation (not saying it shouldn't exist, it just doesn't excite me in the slightest).
God I hate your posts Chap!!
If all the PS3 speculations have some truth in them, will Sony Playstation face its first defeat in a decade?
So, you're predicting a defeat based on (a) Hype, (b) Your lack of understanding of the said hype (c) want to start a fight.
Lets take a look at this, ok, hopefully you'll remember this for more than 2 weeks before posting yet another Anti-Sony thread on this topic:
Hundreds of Cells?
Distributed grid computing?
Hundreds of Cells? Ok, although all IBM's proposed plans on Cellular computing have been based around 16-24 computational 'cores' per die.. lets accept your ubsurd and cluessless 'hundreds' idea and think about this. How would this, which is totally unfounded, differ from an advanced design like the P10 or the NV3x's T&L front-end? This is the future, specifically the type of architecture like the P10.
Dumb comment on the first part.
'GRID' computing (Globus, et al) are all based around the dynamic sharing of processor resources (Networking, Processing, Memory). Isn't this whats needed within the die that contains several sub-cells? This is more of a complimentary function, which perhaps isn't going to be used as I, and others have thought.
Recent comments from members within SCE and IBM have stated that they turned to the established R&D at Universities and such Institutions to help them solve the software based problems of Cellular designs. GRID's being worked on activally at most large R&D universities, I know UofC and UIUC are both activly workin on it - I assume it's the same at similar calibur schools.
Downloading games from Sonynet?
How is this a bad thing? Didn't Sega have something similar during the 32-bit generation? MS will offer something similar, as will Sony. If they work out the DRM issues this is not only positive for the vendors, but developers.
Fuck, Valve just unveilied a simlilar distrobution idea at GDC 2002 and it was great. Whats the diffrence? Oh yeah.... Sony
Massively parallel hardware?
Broadband everything?
What the hell is this? Name me contemporary 3D hardware thats not highly parrallel. Just because you don't see it because it's masked by a HAL and DX/OGL layer doesn't mean the architecture isn't. Thats the only diffrence, how many people have to tell you that any hardware would be difficult to program for if you were given such a low-level view??
We might have delays, high cost hardware, high development costs, infrastructure problems. Bad for Sony, bad for consumers and bad for developers.
The hell is this? This is relevent of ANY IHV or vendor that develops hardware or software for any platform, at any time. Why don't I see you bitching out nVidia for totally dropping the ball concerning anything based on CineFx? Oh yeah... no Sony.
It sounds like a very humongous mission ahead of Sony if they want to fulfil their visions. Is Sony really up to the task? Will their lack of IT specialities impair their work?
So has been any advance, of any genre, or any people, at any time in the history of civilization. What makes this so diffrent? Actually nothing, there will allways be King John's who ademently oppose any idea that they can't see - unfortunatly the internet has allowed you to annoy the rest of us. Fortuntaly, there are still some Ferdinand's - of which Microsoft and Sony are.
This is not an anti Sony topic, i love my PS2. I just need to hear some views regarding Sony's choices. :oops:
Right... I need alot of things too
Am I the only one watching as sony fans set them self up for a dissapointment. I mean really does everyone think sony is going to throw in a 3ghz cell chip with 16-32 cores in it ? The cell chip will be for high end servers and workstations and will cost more than the ithium 2s . I can see them going with a 3ghz athlon 64 or sledgehammer before they would throw that chip in there..
randycat99
16-Dec-2002, 06:35
I don't know anyone whose "satisfaction" hinges around an alleged 3 Ghz Cell chip. If the end result architecture (whatever that may be) gets the job done, that's all that matters in the context of console games. So I'll take it your assertion is simply a mental premise of your own making, rather than an observation of what people out there are really thinking. Imagine that?! The only people who I think the term "3 Ghz" means anything to are potentially Xbox and PC people. In that respect, who really cares what they think about PS3. It's not like the world revolves around them.
I don't know if I'd really call it 'hype' yet, especially since details are as you put it "sketchy". Any less so, you wouldn't know it existed!
Well, the hype I had in mind was Ken Kutaragi's public comments about the PS3 being 1000 times (or was it 100?) more powerful than PS2, due in part to its ability to draw computing power off its grid network. Whether or not that turns out to be true, it sure sounded like hype, and it certainly had the intended effect of hype on the fanboys.
archie4oz
16-Dec-2002, 20:16
Yes but Kutaragi's statements are just that, statements. A few business partnership press-releases, and a GDC presentation hardly constitute hype.
It's when it get's to threads like this, or platform/gaming news sites that regurgitate along with a smidgin of editorial commentary that it becomes 'hype'. The term 'hype' gets bandied around WAAAAY too much these days to the point where one can't even make a public statement without being accused of "hyping" something...
I see your point, but I think many people, myself included, assume that someone like Kutaragi knows that people will listen to and disect every word he utters. I was under the impression that he was unofficially starting their PS3 hype machine early, to take the media (and phanboi) focus off Xbox during its launch and first year. What better way than to comment on a huge performance improvement driven by innovative-sounding breakthrough technology (that no phanboi has a clue about), that outpaces Moore's Law (that no phanboi has a clue about), and therefore already beats all future competitors?
uhm, is f-a-n-b-o-y censored? I just tried to use it above, and each occurence was erased when I previewed and posted.
Testing: fanboy
WTF?
JF_Aidan_Pryde
17-Dec-2002, 00:10
What hype? To to your average X-box owner and ask them if the know anything about PS3/CELL/GRID. In fact, go to the Beyond3D 3D tech forums and ask. Only a handful of peole who chose specifically to follow the news have a rough idea what what CELL is, most people, even 3D guys haven't even heard of it. If anything, the Xabre has 10x more hype. :D
I've seen fanboy threads at Xbox.com and TXB forums arguing about the Cell. 99.999% is bullshit, but people at least know about it. I guess the majority of the ~40 million PS2 owners probably know nothing about it, but the ones who follow this stuff on the web have at least heard of it. Perhaps this is just targetted hype, not intended to reach the general market, but to set the stage for PS3 to gain mindshare when it gets a little closer to launch. Kutaragi is whetting peoples' appetite for the real hype later on.
In the end, $ony will deliver a product for the mass-market with a reasonable pricetag. They're not stupid, they're not being run on the whims of a madman, and they will not limit their market with some radical paradigm shift.
crystalcube
17-Dec-2002, 02:20
they will not limit their market with some radical paradigm shift.
On other hand they can expand their market with some radical paradigm shift.
Its way too early to predict anything at all in respect to PS3.
JF_Aidan_Pryde
17-Dec-2002, 02:59
Targetted hype? What the heck is that? Hype by definition is mass. If most people in the console world don't know much about it, how can you call it hype? The word hype has been hyped up too much.
randycat99
17-Dec-2002, 03:25
Ironically, the PS3 "hype" seems to effect the owners of the "other" consoles the most, yet they invariably accuse the PS2 owners of being hopelessly entranced by it. :-?
Fine, call it whatever the hell you want. I originally called it "hype" b/c hype has the connotation of stretching the truth. Okamoto's public claims of PS3 based on a grid network being 1000 more powerful than PS2 had no technical detail to back them up, and sounded like an exaggeration for publicity to me. I simply cannot see the feasibility in what they suggest (drawing CPU cycles from a network to power real-time games). Hence the word "hype". Okamoto may not not have been speaking to the mass market in a launch press release, but at GDC he certainly sounded like he was trying to hype up game devs about PS3, hence "targetted hype."
This is an absurd argument anyway. I was hoping people would respond to my speculative predictions about what PS3 will actually turn out to be, and that I might actually learn something new about PS3, the Cell, Grid Networks, SOI, how Sony's claims may actually be feasible, or anything interesting for that matter. Instead I get drawn into an argument over semantics. Wtf is this, an English forum?
marconelly!
17-Dec-2002, 05:30
As far as I know, all that's been officially said is that they are hoping to make a machine 1000x more powerful than the PS2. Will the Cell be used in it or no has never been firmly specified.
sas_simon
17-Dec-2002, 08:08
How would a developer develop a game to take advantage of a system using distributed networks when the developer knows that not every ps3 will be networked.
It does sound very interesting and I would love to see how it is actually implemented in the final release of the ps3.
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