View Full Version : The next-gen Game Boy: Isn't it of strategic importance to ATI?
Megadrive1988
11-Dec-2005, 22:00
Assuming Nintendo will give the 3D chip contract for the next-generation Game Boy to ATI, would you not imagine that it is of great strategic importance to ATI given the likely volume of units involved ? with the potental to sell tens of millions of new Game Boys from launch date through the end of the decade -- and probably sell more than both Xbox360 and Revolution put together, one would think this is a priority for Orton and his company. I was somewhat surprised that DS did not have an ATI chip in it, but I almost cannot imagine the next Game Boy without one.
AlphaWolf
11-Dec-2005, 22:20
Assuming Nintendo will give the 3D chip contract for the next-generation Game Boy to ATI, would you not imagine that it is of great strategic importance to ATI given the likely volume of units involved ? with the potental to sell tens of millions of new Game Boys from launch date through the end of the decade -- and probably sell more than both Xbox360 and Revolution put together, one would think this is a priority for Orton and his company. I was somewhat surprised that DS did not have an ATI chip in it, but I almost cannot imagine the next Game Boy without one.
You are talking about relatively low dollar items. I imagine they would like to have the business but I don't see it contributing that much to their bottom line.
With portables being the largest market for graphics and ATi all but shut out of it currently, an inside track to the next Game Boy contract, while not as high volume as a major chip manufacturer's application processor, might be ATi's best opportunity. Their difficulty as a company who typically produces their own chips has been that the major chip suppliers to the portable market all license their graphics IP and are already settled in with a solution for at least the next generation. The likes of ATi and nVidia have a lot of inroads left to make in the industry in order to secure a significant spot in the market.
ATi does have a processor for handhelds on the way that achieves the requirements for Shader Model 3.
AlphaWolf
11-Dec-2005, 23:59
With portables being the largest market for graphics and ATi all but shut out of it currently, an inside track to the next Game Boy contract, while not as high volume as a major chip manufacturer's application processor, might be ATi's best opportunity.
Largest market? Excluding pcs and cellphones perhaps.
Cellphones are portables.
AlphaWolf
12-Dec-2005, 00:03
Cellphones are portables.
Well if you are counting cellphones as portables, then ATI isn't shut out of that market. The problem is that the chips that go into cellphones have an ASP of $5. If they have a 20% margin you are only looking at $1 per unit.
wireframe
12-Dec-2005, 00:04
You are talking about relatively low dollar items. I imagine they would like to have the business but I don't see it contributing that much to their bottom line.
I don't know that the margins woud be any real concern. These handheld gaming cosoles are a big business and is probably going to grow. I am sure someone like ATI could get some nice income from licensing IP and reaping the rewards on quantities.
It seems logical to me that portable gaming consoles require higher performance graphics than mobiles phones and can therefore offer better margins and more commonality with the core business to make it interesting.
Cellphone volumes reach into the hundreds of millions.
AlphaWolf
12-Dec-2005, 00:16
Cellphone volumes reach into the hundreds of millions.
So if ATI had the entire market to themselves they could increase their overall sales by 30%?
Their difficulty as a company who typically produces their own chips has been that the major chip suppliers to the portable market all license their graphics IP and are already settled in with a solution for at least the next generation.
Graphics in the current generation has been a non-event, with many companies taking out token licenses of whatever happens to be available (many of which will never be enabled). Once graphics in mobiles is taken more seriously, the choice of which vendor's graphics to use will be taken more seriously.
Dave Baumann
12-Dec-2005, 00:19
ATi does have a processor for handhelds on the way that achieves the requirements for Shader Model 3.
More or less it will be a cut down Xenos.
Xenos's large tile approach could pressure the size limits of a portable chip with a lot of embedded memory.
More or less it will be a cut down Xenos.
Cut down would have to be one hell of an understatement if true.
Presumably, ATi's processor is custom designed for wireless requirements using a Xenos-like architecture.
Megadrive1988
13-Dec-2005, 22:43
Cut down would have to be one hell of an understatement if true.
yeah like maybe 8 unified shader ALUs instead of 48, and maybe 2 MB EDRAM
Dave Baumann
14-Dec-2005, 00:04
In terms of architecture, I wouldn't know whether it has eDRAM or not (although enough for 640x480 may be wise).
Some time ago AJ from Futuremark joined ATI, his job is to evangelise to handheld developers the use of shaders - this it kind of an odd job at the moment seeing as ATI have no shader enabled handheld parts yet. I met with Richard Huddy recently and asked after AJ and having pointed out that he must be having an easy time of it at the moment (;)) because he's got nothing to evangelise; Richard pointed out that he can already evangelise the capabilities as they already exist. I already knew that they were working on Xenos for the mobile space, given what Bob had said when he was initially wheeled out at E3, but from Richards comments it sounds like the shader capabilities will be very similar, if not the same.
Its wouldn't surprise me if 65nm was the target for the first version of this.
In terms of architecture, I wouldn't know whether it has eDRAM or not (although enough for 640x480 may be wise).
Some time ago AJ from Futuremark joined ATI, his job is to evangelise to handheld developers the use of shaders - this it kind of an odd job at the moment seeing as ATI have no shader enabled handheld parts yet. I met with Richard Huddy recently and asked after AJ and having pointed out that he must be having an easy time of it at the moment (;)) because he's got nothing to evangelise; Richard pointed out that he can already evangelise the capabilities as they already exist. I already knew that they were working on Xenos for the mobile space, given what Bob had said when he was initially wheeled out at E3, but from Richards comments it sounds like the shader capabilities will be very similar, if not the same.
Its wouldn't surprise me if 65nm was the target for the first version of this.
Would it be too much to infer that since Xenos is the MS name for the C1 that perhaps there is more to read into that comment from Richard?
arjan de lumens
14-Dec-2005, 03:11
Well if you are counting cellphones as portables, then ATI isn't shut out of that market. The problem is that the chips that go into cellphones have an ASP of $5. If they have a 20% margin you are only looking at $1 per unit.
$1 per unit?? Sounds unsustainable to me, at least. ARM claims that they are on average collecting ~8 cents for each CPU core; IME, it's very hard to sell a GPU at 12 times the price of the CPU.
The mobile phone market for 3D IPs may be gigantic in terms of number of units; in terms of actual revenue it's very small (~1-3% of the total 3d graphics hardware market, if you're optimistic). There are also a lot more companies offering 3D IPs in this market than on the desktop, which also puts a strong downward pressure on what prices you can expect.
AlphaWolf
14-Dec-2005, 03:18
$1 per unit?? Sounds unsustainable to me, at least. ARM claims that they are on average collecting ~8 cents for each CPU core; IME, it's very hard to sell a GPU at 12 times the price of the CPU.
The mobile phone market for 3D IPs may be gigantic in terms of number of units; in terms of actual revenue it's very small (~1-3% of the total 3d graphics hardware market, if you're optimistic). There are also a lot more companies offering 3D IPs in this market than on the desktop, which also puts a strong downward pressure on what prices you can expect.
I was just using that as a potential upper limit, I am only aware of their ASP from their conference call earlier this year.
http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/showthread.php?t=24342
Assuming ATi is trying to compete directly with PowerVR for the next generation, their processor could be in consumer products not much later than first-half 2007. SGX is already prototyping in silicon, presumably as the wireless processor Stanwood at Intel. Some of the major fabricators could have their 65nm processes ready around that time.
Some idea of royalty and licensing rates for wireless graphics processor IP can be figured from ImgTec's recent financial reports which list some general results on sales volume and revenue.
Would it be too much to infer that since Xenos is the MS name for the C1 that perhaps there is more to read into that comment from Richard?
Xenos is Ati's name. No one at Ati calls it C1.
kemosabe
17-Dec-2005, 17:56
ATI's already significant presence in 3D-capable cellphones will only be getting larger as Qualcomm's MSM 7xxx series chipsets will soon integrate Imageon technology into highend handhelds from many suppliers. And those profit margins are currently the company's highest after DTV (~40%). Qualcomm deal will be royalties like Xenos.
Considering the cozy relationship with both Nintendo and MSFT, Orton would be nuts not to go after both upcoming handheld console platforms. Anyone know when MSFT will announce theirs, by the way? :p
P.S. If ARM collects only 8 cents per CPU sold, then that must be on a royalty basis (100% profit margin) and doesn't reflect the actual cost of the CPU, so it can't be compared to ATI's current business model for supplying Imageon chipsets.
Dave Baumann
17-Dec-2005, 18:30
Xenos is Ati's name. No one at Ati calls it C1.
C1 is the development name, "Xenos" is the name tacked on at the end.
C1 is the development name, "Xenos" is the name tacked on at the end.
No. C1 was the code name before there was a contract. Xenos is the development name.
Dave Baumann
21-Dec-2005, 20:29
Orton just spoke about embedded memory specifically when addressing the next generation Imageon, so it looks like a built in Framebuffer may be on the cards.
blakjedi
21-Dec-2005, 22:48
I thought xenos' design was wholly owned by MS....
Applying tiling and a unified shading model to a portable processor would be a carryover of concept and learned lessons from a settop part more than any copying of specific design.
I thought xenos' design was wholly owned by MS....
Nope. No company in their right mind would give away a design like that and not still be able to use it themselves.
Bobbler
22-Dec-2005, 05:14
I thought xenos' design was wholly owned by MS....
I think they just own the rights to that implementation of it (so they can take the fabbing wherever they please). I think ATI probably still holds the patents/rights to many of the ideas in it (as I imagine there will be gpus in the future very similar to Xenos).
Maybe not though... who knows?
Assuming Nintendo will give the 3D chip contract for the next-generation Game Boy to ATI, would you not imagine that it is of great strategic importance to ATI given the likely volume of units involved ? with the potental to sell tens of millions of new Game Boys from launch date through the end of the decade -- and probably sell more than both Xbox360 and Revolution put together, one would think this is a priority for Orton and his company. I was somewhat surprised that DS did not have an ATI chip in it, but I almost cannot imagine the next Game Boy without one.
What company provided the DS's graphics? Nintendo went without ATI previously, there's no reason they couldn't look elseware again. (a gamecube based portable in 2007/2008 wouldn't be bad though and would seem like a missed opportunity for easy ports if nintendo doesn't do it)
Ailuros
29-Dec-2005, 10:06
Graphics in the current generation has been a non-event, with many companies taking out token licenses of whatever happens to be available (many of which will never be enabled). Once graphics in mobiles is taken more seriously, the choice of which vendor's graphics to use will be taken more seriously.
While I don't disagree, it does also count who gets there first with working prototypes.
Some time ago AJ from Futuremark joined ATI, his job is to evangelise to handheld developers the use of shaders - this it kind of an odd job at the moment seeing as ATI have no shader enabled handheld parts yet.
We've been busy in a good kind of way. 8) Pretty confident about the future too.
BTW: If you listened throught the last conf call one interesting piece of information about handheld is that during this year ATI has shipped more than 80 million media processors for mobile phones. This is pretty impressive IMHO. Company also expects to ship more than 80 million media processors for mobile phones during 1H 2006, which is even more impressive. You can check out which phones ATI has done from here:
http://www.ati.com/products/handheld/onboard.html
Cheers,
AJ
Dave Baumann
30-Dec-2005, 22:11
Hey AJ, Happy Christmas.
I did listen to the CC, but we're not interested in what has happened, such as how many you've sold, but more interested in whats coming up! I note from the CC the next part would appear to have embedded RAM and DVB-H capabilities - given the comments from Richard this appears to sound more like a mini Xenos on the 3D side. Any other details you can fill us in on? ;)
Hey AJ, Happy Christmas.
I did listen to the CC, but we're not interested in what has happened, such as how many you've sold, but more interested in whats coming up! I note from the CC the next part would appear to have embedded RAM and DVB-H capabilities - given the comments from Richard this appears to sound more like a mini Xenos on the 3D side. Any other details you can fill us in on? ;)
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to UK too,
Yeah, I know that the past is only so exiting. :) I just thought the 80 million figure was a good one to point out because it indicates that ATI is gaining rather positive momentum in this space. It also indicates that there's a serious market for multimedia processors in handheld environements.
Looking forward it's still a tad early to spill the beans. But we've been busy so keep watching this space...
linthat22
02-Jan-2006, 12:50
Couldn't Nintendo go with Bitboys?
Rodéric
02-Jan-2006, 13:27
Couldn't Nintendo go with Bitboys?
I would prefer PowerVR...
Going with ATI would be easy, but having only one partner would also be a problem (might want too much of the cake), so having another one on the handheld market might be a good idea.
Dave Baumann
14-Jan-2006, 16:16
LOL! I just found out last night that Bob Felstien, formerly the VP of Engineering heading up the Xbox project is now the head of engineering for handheld devices...
LOL! I just found out last night that Bob Felstien, formerly the VP of Engineering heading up the Xbox project is now the head of engineering for handheld devices...
in MS itself?
kemosabe
14-Jan-2006, 23:26
Nope, that would be within ATI (http://www.firingsquad.com/features/xbox_360_interview/).
nihilistcanada
15-Jan-2006, 09:32
LOL! I just found out last night that Bob Felstien, formerly the VP of Engineering heading up the Xbox project is now the head of engineering for handheld devices...
Let me guess, a velcro wrist strap for the Virtual Boy relaunch?
Nope, that would be within ATI (http://www.firingsquad.com/features/xbox_360_interview/).
Thanks for link, but Dave only mentioned Xbox. :wink:
Megadeth
18-Jan-2006, 18:46
http://www.buzzscope.com/features.php?id=1248
"The first generation mobile 3D parts from ATI and nVidia were both botched a bit, but in different ways. I expect the second generation parts to be clean and effective. We are negotiating with ATI about possibly making a dedicated 3D accelerated version of an upcoming mobile game, which would really let me do some cool work on it."
:)
--Mega
Looking forward it's still a tad early to spill the beans. But we've been busy so keep watching this space...
I smell a handheld Xbox. Of course you are free to correct me if I am mistaken.
kemosabe
20-Jan-2006, 04:15
Somehow I doubt very much that you are mistaken. :smile:
Goragoth
21-Jan-2006, 02:40
A handheld from MS could certainly happen but it's going to be tough to compete. With Nintendo entrenched as they are and Sony going after the hip/cool mobile entertainemnt centre craving crowd with the PSP I don't really see any niche for MS.
Ontopic: With the competetion from the PSP, the next-gen Gameboy or DS is going to have to deliver nice graphics so I think it is going to be pretty much inevitable that Nintendo will use a chip from one of the major players but if it will be ATi will really depend on what they have to offer vs the competition. I doubt that their current deal with them for the Gamecube and Revolution will have any significant bearing on the decision.
kemosabe
22-Jan-2006, 03:37
I doubt that their current deal with them for the Gamecube and Revolution will have any significant bearing on the decision.
Huh? Assuming Nintendo is looking for a GPU provider and considering ATI's ongoing momentum in mobile/handheld, the existing relationship with ATI can't possibly not have a significant bearing on such a decision.
Evil_Cloud
23-Jan-2006, 12:10
I remember reading an article about the designer of several GameBoy handhelds (Pocket, Color, GameBoy Advance and GameBoy Advance SP), in Edge's Equip series which was released in 2003. Back then, he already stated Nintendo was working on the next GameBoy handheld.
It was before Nintendo DS was revealed, so I am wondering wether Nintendo had two handhelds in development at the same time? Iwata said DS's success would affect the timeframe for the next GameBoy (more success = GameBoy is pushed back).
Also, he said he was still thinking about the incorperation of media features like music and movies. I feel Nintendo would have had an insane success with GameBoy Micro, if they had put some flash memory + MP3 playback in.
Will PSP push Nintendo into a 'multimedia' device or wil they stay with pure gaming devices? I think they will take the middle road and try to find a balance between cost and features. Besides, most people already have MP3 players, Mobile Phones,... PSP will be priced lower over the coming years, Nintendo will have to anticipate that (more cost/value).
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