View Full Version : If Xbox 360 loses, "We'll play again." - Bill Gates
Chairman Bill Gates said on Monday.
"We'll play again," Gates told Reuters in a telephone interview ahead of the Xbox 360 launch on Tuesday.
"We learned a lot in the first round. We've got a chance not just to have higher market share, but also to grow the size of this market substantially," Gates said.
"In terms of how we've balanced technology in the machine, we feel certain we've done a better job than Sony," he said.
"You won't really know that until a year from now, when people are talking about how the games on our machines compare to the games on Sony's machines," Gates said.
This is quite shocking to me. Especially since this is the day before your console launchs in the United States. I guess Bill Gates isn't very confident. :mad:
Short Story (http://onthexbox.com/3/article/464.html)
Full Story (http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyID=2005-11-21T214730Z_01_ROB178351_RTRUKOC_0_US-MEDIA-XBOX-GATES.xml)
I guess Bill Gates isn't very confident. :mad:
In terms of how we've balanced technology in the machine, we feel certain we've done a better job than Sony
Right....
Cheers
I think this time they'll figure out how important power is. Especially after 5 years of possible Xbox 1.5 references, being raked over the coals gleefully by hating journalists as less powerful than PS3, and such.
And they say MS gets it right on the third try..
If MS sets their mind too it, they can always beat Sony on power if launched in the same timeframe. Simply because they can lose more money.
I do think for the most part MS has shown to be vastly better hardware engineers than Sony. Interesting Gates hinted at that.
The only quibble I have with 360 is the EDRAM. That's a huge one. But Sony is making things a lot more difficult for themselves than it needs to be on the other hand.
I think this time they'll figure out how important power is. Especially after 5 years of possible Xbox 1.5 references, being raked over the coals gleefully by hating journalists as less powerful than PS3, and such.
And they say MS gets it right on the third try..
If MS sets their mind too it, they can always beat Sony on power in the same timeframe. Simply because they can lose more money.
I wonder what Sony is going to do with the PlayStation 4 when the time comes... I wonder if they'll even have enough money to bring another console in the market. :???:
Jon Brittan
22-Nov-2005, 12:34
I think this time they'll figure out how important power is. Especially after 5 years of possible Xbox 1.5 references, being raked over the coals gleefully by hating journalists as less powerful than PS3, and such.
And they say MS gets it right on the third try..
I think that statement in itself proves just how irrelevant power actually is and how important mindshare is instead.
Last generation MS had a notable power advantage over both Sony and Nintendo, yet Sony were still the major player and the largest number of people raved about Sony's games etc.
Now we're at a point where people are pointing at Sony as going to lead this generation (which they almost certainly will, but not for this reason) because they have the most powerful machine...
What it is, is simply an entrenched mindset that Sony is the dominant player, the reasoning people come up with to establish why is more to justify the feeling than a reason for it. The one thing Sony truly have done well is to establish the concept that they are the dominant gaming company, they'll then pretty much let people decide for themselves just why that is.
I think that statement in itself proves just how irrelevant power actually is and how important mindshare is instead.
.
Well that's interesting that people devote so many posts to showing X360 is underpowered, then. If it's not important.
It's very important and they know it.
Also Xbox won 2004 in the largest videogame market. Then MS basically killed it themselves. Pretty impressive frankly. It had all the momentum.
london-boy
22-Nov-2005, 12:39
I wonder what Sony is going to do with the PlayStation 4 when the time comes... I wonder if they'll even have enough money to bring another console in the market. :???:
Oh please, not this "Sony are teh broke, they have a 1Trillion debt!!11" argument again...
Jon Brittan
22-Nov-2005, 12:45
Well that's interesting that people devote so many posts to showing X360 is underpowered, then. If it's not important.
It's very important and they know it.
Also Xbox won 2004 in the largest videogame market. Then MS basically killed it themselves. Pretty impressive frankly. It had all the momentum.
But if you really look at it closely, many of those people posting about X360 being under-powered were likely the same people who were stating that power didn't matter when it came to Xbox vs PS2, the vast majority of people are very fickle with their views, changing them to suit their allegiances at any point in time. Many of those same people, if for whatever reason they suddenly decided to get an X360 instead of a PS3 would almost certainly rapidly change that view again.
Power, IMO, is not very important, it is simply important, much like many of the other factors which some of these people role out to be the sole reason why any given console will suceed or fail.
Realistically a console will suceed or fail based upon a combination of its power, the games available for it, its market penetration and the mindset of the current and potential consumers.
All of those factors and more are equally important, certain people try to bring the argument down to focusing on a single issue as it suits the requirements of their argument far more simply, or in some cases because they simply don't understand the reality of the situation.
Xbox might have been gaining momentum, but it wasn't purely down to power and the Xbox brand will continue to gain momentum with the X360.
Xbox was the most powerful console of its generation, but did it win that generation? No.
Did Xbox get MS the foothold it was looking for in the market? Yes.
Xbox 360 will not be the most powerful console of its generation, but will it win this generation? Most likely, no.
Will X360 continue to expand MSs market share as a percentage of the total market? Most likely, yes.
Oh please, not this "Sony are teh broke, they have a 1Trillion debt!!11" argument again...
No, you misunderstand me. Sorry. I just hope Howard Stringer can bring Sony back to the top again. :???:
Bad_Boy
22-Nov-2005, 12:56
how can billy say they have done better than sony this time around when sony has barely even shown their hand yet? either way, dealer wins.
dealer = teh consumer. ;)
london-boy
22-Nov-2005, 12:59
Also Xbox won 2004 in the largest videogame market. Then MS basically killed it themselves. Pretty impressive frankly. It had all the momentum.
Did you mean that in 2004 Xbox sold more in the US than Sony? Is that even true?
Did you mean that in 2004 Xbox sold more in the US than Sony? Is that even true?
Ditto. Sony shipped roughly 3 million PS2s in America during the whole of 2004 (http://www.scei.co.jp/corporate/data/bizdataps2_e.html).
An hardware with an obsolete DVD-Rom, an hardware without a digital output.
Two version, one of its without hard disk.
I'm not so sure he said the truth.
I know MS outsold Sony in hardware in December and November 2004 in North America. The two biggest months obviously.
And they won 6 or 7 months overall.
Overall it had to be close, anyway. If MS didn't outsell them.
I really find that hard to believe, really. Without any links to back this up, I for one am going to remain sceptical. :wink:
Johnny Awesome
22-Nov-2005, 13:30
What it is, is simply an entrenched mindset that Sony is the dominant player, the reasoning people come up with to establish why is more to justify the feeling than a reason for it. The one thing Sony truly have done well is to establish the concept that they are the dominant gaming company, they'll then pretty much let people decide for themselves just why that is.
That is exactly right. Very well said. MS is trying to change that mindset. We'll see how successful they are in doing so.
http://forum.pcvsconsole.com/viewthread.php?tid=11067
Google will tell you all you need to know as well.
dantruon
22-Nov-2005, 13:31
so what if it beat Sony in NA by a small margin, just look at Japan where it seel less than the ps1 almost every single week.
Johnny Awesome
22-Nov-2005, 13:36
But if you really look at it closely, many of those people posting about X360 being under-powered were likely the same people who were stating that power didn't matter when it came to Xbox vs PS2, the vast majority of people are very fickle with their views, changing them to suit their allegiances at any point in time. Many of those same people, if for whatever reason they suddenly decided to get an X360 instead of a PS3 would almost certainly rapidly change that view again.
Power, IMO, is not very important, it is simply important, much like many of the other factors which some of these people role out to be the sole reason why any given console will suceed or fail.
Realistically a console will suceed or fail based upon a combination of its power, the games available for it, its market penetration and the mindset of the current and potential consumers.
All of those factors and more are equally important, certain people try to bring the argument down to focusing on a single issue as it suits the requirements of their argument far more simply, or in some cases because they simply don't understand the reality of the situation.
Xbox might have been gaining momentum, but it wasn't purely down to power and the Xbox brand will continue to gain momentum with the X360.
Xbox was the most powerful console of its generation, but did it win that generation? No.
Did Xbox get MS the foothold it was looking for in the market? Yes.
Xbox 360 will not be the most powerful console of its generation, but will it win this generation? Most likely, no.
Will X360 continue to expand MSs market share as a percentage of the total market? Most likely, yes.
I couldn't agree more. Power is only a small part of the equation IMO. Especially when the consoles are going to be essentially running the same 3rd party games.
http://forum.pcvsconsole.com/viewthread.php?tid=11067
Google will tell you all you need to know as well.
Excellent, thanks. I really didn't know - must of been those two months when Halo 2 came out?
In anycase, over the entire year 2004 based on that data, it wasn't that close at all: PS2 sales 4606,545 vs Xbox 2979,771. Not bad I suppose though.
london-boy
22-Nov-2005, 13:40
Oh so MS outselling Sony 2 months of the year (and Sony outselling MS the other 10) suddenly means, in your own words, "Also Xbox won 2004 in the largest videogame market" ?
Funny enough it was only when Halo 2 came out and PS2 had no big games coming out in that period except maybe MGS3, and the momentum lasted 2 months. Hardly anything to write home about.
I know MS outsold Sony in hardware in December and November 2004 in North America. The two biggest months obviously.
And they won 6 or 7 months overall.
Overall it had to be close, anyway. If MS didn't outsell them.
That doesnt mean much actually considering that the PS2 approached all its possible consumers it could get by that time.It wasnt because XBOX was prefered more than the PS2.And we are talking about small differences too.
drpepper
22-Nov-2005, 13:59
Yes, Halo 2 coming out probably explains the surge in Xbox sales. But it was hardly enough to sustain that momentum.
Shortly after I believe GT4, God of War and Devil May Cry 3 came out for winter-spring 05.
MS has to compete with the likes of these. that's why Sony has so much sway. :shock:
Nick Laslett
22-Nov-2005, 14:08
I wonder what Sony is going to do with the PlayStation 4 when the time comes...
I think Sony are playing the long game. A much longer game than MS. I figure Sony expect MS to play a third hand.
The painful and expensive shift to CELL will come into it's own in 8 years time.
I expect Sony to scale up the Playstation 4. It won't be a new console at all, just a PS3 with more CELLS. They should reap major economies of scale, die shrink, and all those other things about Chip manufacturing which goes over my head.
People with a PS3 will be able to upgrade the console to a PS4 by buying an add-on.
Blu-Ray will still be the format of choice. Without a major shift in display devices there is no need to go to a new format.
The adoption of 360 and PS3 will be slower than with the present generation. We are reaching the point of diminishing returns for the mass market consumer. You need a HDTV to enjoy these new consoles, that will make the adoption rate much slower.
On a SD TV the difference between the current gen and next gen is not great enough.
The PS2 still has to hit the $99 price point.
Once the Hardcore have all bought their next-gen consoles, sales will be very hard to come buy.
For me the next-gen is like High End PC gaming, DVD-Audio and Laser Discs - a niche market for commited enthusiasts.
Mr Massmarket will stick with his current console for 3 - 4 years.
The situation in Europe is even more conservative, going from 575i PAL to 720p is not the same leap as crappy 480i NTSC. HDTV will struggle to take hold in Europe for a long time. House sizes are much smaller and screen sizes above 32" are rare. HD TV really shines at sizes above 32".
In Japan we have the opposite situation. The next gen is needed more than ever to grow the market. But it is there that the Nintendo Revolution will probably have the greatest disruption effect. The Japanese culture prizes innovation over raw power. Both MS and Sony could find themselves on the receiving end of this paradigm shift.
Very happy to be proved wrong about my assumptions about the adoption of new technology. It will be interesting to look back in 2 years time and see if MS have shifted a significant number of 360s worldwide.
deathstar121
22-Nov-2005, 14:10
It's not if they lose, it's when they lose, I am not too big on 360 after what my friend has told me, I live just outside of NYC and my friend is the biggest xbox F@NB0Y that i know, and he thought 360 sucked, I am gonna go to his house and play the system today should tell you what I think by 10 pm tonite, but if this guy don't like what he saw MS is gonna be screwed big time.
dukmahsik
22-Nov-2005, 14:20
It's not if they lose, it's when they lose, I am not too big on 360 after what my friend has told me, I live just outside of NYC and my friend is the biggest xbox F@NB0Y that i know, and he thought 360 sucked, I am gonna go to his house and play the system today should tell you what I think by 10 pm tonite, but if this guy don't like what he saw MS is gonna be screwed big time.
yeah ur friend totally represents all 360 owners.
So i guess Office and Windows prices will not drop after all :-)
deathstar121
22-Nov-2005, 14:41
yeah ur friend totally represents all 360 owners.
Yep he does J/K, personally 360 looks good, but not great, it kinda reminds me of Dreamcast where it looked great, then PS2 was release and even though DC and PS2 launch games looked the same, DC still lost, because of the PS2 hype, it's the same thing all over, I don't think that MS nor Nintendo can dethrone Sony, Sony's control on the market is just too strong, and if my friend doesn't like the system too much and he's a hardcore gamer and a big xbox fan, what chance does MS have? remember they have to find a way to attract the current xbox supporters, and get new ones, and if a hardcore xbox fan doesn't like your system, what makes you think MS will able to attract Sony fans or Nintendo fans, the way I see it MS isn't going to be #1, Sony will win this race easy and probably going away like they did with PS2.
dukmahsik
22-Nov-2005, 14:44
Yep he does J/K, personally 360 looks good, but not great, it kinda reminds me of Dreamcast where it looked great, then PS2 was release and even though DC and PS2 launch games looked the same, DC still lost, because of the PS2 hype, it's the same thing all over, I don't think that MS nor Nintendo can dethrone Sony, Sony's control on the market is just too strong, and if my friend doesn't like the system too much and he's a hardcore gamer and a big xbox fan, what chance does MS have? remember they have to find a way to attract the current xbox supporters, and get new ones, and if a hardcore xbox fan doesn't like your system, what makes you think MS will able to attract Sony fans or Nintendo fans, the way I see it MS isn't going to be #1, Sony will win this race easy and probably going away like they did with PS2.
if u already have made up your mind and predicted the future then what's the point? all 3 next gen systems will have must have games. i too think sony will win next gen but hey who's going to miss out on halo 3? not i :D
deathstar121
22-Nov-2005, 14:52
if u already have made up your mind and predicted the future then what's the point? all 3 next gen systems will have must have games. i too think sony will win next gen but hey who's going to miss out on halo 3? not i :D
I am gonna get a 360 but not right now, I just think that the early adopters like my friend and the millions out there will get robbed, waiting a year or so is the best thing, by then alot of second generation games will be releasing, and alot of the launch games that i am interested in will be dirt cheap, and the system will be in a price war with PS3 and Rev.
dukmahsik
22-Nov-2005, 15:12
I am gonna get a 360 but not right now, I just think that the early adopters like my friend and the millions out there will get robbed, waiting a year or so is the best thing, by then alot of second generation games will be releasing, and alot of the launch games that i am interested in will be dirt cheap, and the system will be in a price war with PS3 and Rev.
2nd gen games don't take a year. if millions enjoy their 360 they won't be robbed.
Dr Evil
22-Nov-2005, 16:03
Also Xbox won 2004 in the largest videogame market.
WHY THE HELL DID YOU WROTE THAT!?
PS2 sold over 1.5million units more than Xbox and out of 12 months, PS2 won 7 and the 5 Xbox won, it was only by a small margin, whereas most PS2 victories were quite large. So please answer why you have to post total garbage like that, please tell us!.
silhouette
22-Nov-2005, 16:15
I think the most important aspect of this interview is 360 will not definitely end up like Dreamcast. It seems that MS will continue to support it even if it does not gain more marketshare... That's a good news to me actually.
So i guess Office and Windows prices will not drop after all :-)
lol as if they were :lol:
scooby_dooby
22-Nov-2005, 16:35
Oh so MS outselling Sony 5 months of the year (and Sony outselling MS the other 7) suddenly means, in your own words, "Also Xbox won 2004 in the largest videogame market" ?
Fixed!
Bill's point was that in the biggest sales months, nov and dec, xbox outsold PS2 in north america. That doesn't mean they "won 2004" but it's something to be proud of if your MS, and speaks very loudly to momentum, mindset and the current marketplace in the US and Canada.
drpepper
22-Nov-2005, 16:41
Fixed!
Bill's point was that in the biggest sales months, nov and dec, xbox outsold PS2 in north america. That doesn't mean they "won 2004" but it's something to be proud of if your MS, and speaks very loudly to momentum, mindset and the current marketplace in the US and Canada.
Not really, it speaks of the anticipation leading up to the release of Halo 2.
london-boy
22-Nov-2005, 16:44
Fixed!
Bill's point was that in the biggest sales months, nov and dec, xbox outsold PS2 in north america. That doesn't mean they "won 2004" but it's something to be proud of if your MS, and speaks very loudly to momentum, mindset and the current marketplace in the US and Canada.
That's fab for americans. Shame there is the rest of the world to worry about too, but that doesn't seem to be one of America's priorities, and the videogame market is just one of the many examples. Getting political now so i'll stop.
That's fab for americans. Shame there is the rest of the world to worry about too, but that doesn't seem to be one of America's priorities, and the videogame market is just one of the many examples. Getting political now so i'll stop.
If we worry about the rest of the world we're being an arrogant empire and if we don't worry we're acting self-absorbed and callous. I know it's trendy to be anti-american when i was young it was converse chucks that got you laid, but I'd like to point out the Japanese console/software makers never catered toward world markets or tastes. The rest of the world adopted their tastes for anime style rpgs and 2d fighters. I don't understand why you expect MS, whom you dislike, to do something companies you like would never did.... until markets tastes shifted.
Ms isn't going to make mongolian chicken chasers 3000 until theirs a percieved demand but then agin neither will Sony. or Nintendo.
Dr Evil
22-Nov-2005, 17:38
Fixed!
Bill's point was that in the biggest sales months, nov and dec, xbox outsold PS2 in north america. That doesn't mean they "won 2004" but it's something to be proud of if your MS, and speaks very loudly to momentum, mindset and the current marketplace in the US and Canada.
Actually he thought that Xbox sold more in 2004 and proclaimed Xbox the winner without checking up the facts, and that's annoying... Now I don't mean Xbox did poorly, because 2004 was pretty good year for Xbox, but I still wouldn't say it had more momentum than PS2. Big reason why Xbox beat PS2 during the holidays was because Sony had problems shipping the new Slim PS2, had there been supply, it's more than likely that PS2 would have sold more.
Titanio
22-Nov-2005, 17:44
Bill's point was that in the biggest sales months, nov and dec, xbox outsold PS2 in north america. That doesn't mean they "won 2004" but it's something to be proud of if your MS, and speaks very loudly to momentum, mindset and the current marketplace in the US and Canada.
If you look at the months following Nov/Dec, PS2 went back to outselling the Xbox by a large margin. So far this year, they've sold over twice as many PS2s in NA as MS has sold Xboxs, and have done so consistently throughout the year to date, despite the advent of the PSP to boot. (By the way, have already sold well over 3m PS2 units to Oct alone - are we sure they only shipped 3m in NA in 2004?). That's the current "momentum, mindset and marketplace" in NA. Nov/Dec last year was anomolous and the margins were small - almost certainly down to Halo2 (if not also PS2-shortage related, as I believe there were wide reports of large PS2 shortages in NA at the time).
Shifty Geezer
22-Nov-2005, 18:57
Ibut I'd like to point out the Japanese console/software makers never catered toward world markets or tastes.If MS wants worldwide hardware penetration, that have to appeal to a worldwide audience, same as any other company. SE and friends are happy to produce Japanese software for Japanese gamers and if others like that, fair enough. They're not trying to attract US and European (and Australian, but not India :p) tastes. They don't care too much about those markets, though will release to them if they think they can make money. Sony do care, and haven't released Japan-only software. They've software houses that produce an interesting mix of genres to appeal to all.
If the tastes of one area are burgers and you try to open up a Sushi Bar, don't be surprised if you don't get the customers. If MS only release 'American' games, they're not going to attract gamers with different tastes.
mckmas8808
22-Nov-2005, 20:23
Fixed!
Bill's point was that in the biggest sales months, nov and dec, xbox outsold PS2 in north america. That doesn't mean they "won 2004" but it's something to be proud of if your MS, and speaks very loudly to momentum, mindset and the current marketplace in the US and Canada.
It was due to SHORTAGES!!!!!!!!
Don't you guys actually remember this? This was when Sony was trying to squeeze in the slim-line PStwo's. Which Sony has shipped as many worldwide as MS have shipped Xbox's.
scooby_dooby
22-Nov-2005, 20:36
If you look at the months following Nov/Dec, PS2 went back to outselling the Xbox by a large margin. So far this year, they've sold over twice as many PS2s in NA as MS has sold Xboxs, and have done so consistently throughout the year to date, despite the advent of the PSP to boot. (By the way, have already sold well over 3m PS2 units to Oct alone - are we sure they only shipped 3m in NA in 2004?). That's the current "momentum, mindset and marketplace" in NA. Nov/Dec last year was anomolous and the margins were small - almost certainly down to Halo2 (if not also PS2-shortage related, as I believe there were wide reports of large PS2 shortages in NA at the time).
I don't know why you twisted my post into being a comparison between which has "more" momentum or mindshare.
The simple fact it did outsell PS2 during the holiday season, tells you the strength of the XBOX brandname in the US. Is it equal to PS2? Hell no. But it's extremely strong, and it's something I think people in europe don't realize sometimes, how strong the XBOX brand name has actually become over here.
Diesel2
22-Nov-2005, 20:55
I don't know why you twisted my post into being a comparison between which has "more" momentum or mindshare.
The simple fact it did outsell PS2 during the holiday season, tells you the strength of the XBOX brandname in the US. Is it equal to PS2? Hell no. But it's extremely strong, and it's something I think people in europe don't realize sometimes, how strong the XBOX brand name has actually become over here.
Ahh, maybe because you posted this,
and speaks very loudly to momentum, mindset and the current marketplace in the US and Canada.
I think what Bill wrote earlier proves even more so that it is games that sell consoles. GAMES. GAMES. GAMES.
Said that three times for dramatic effect. ;)
Of course Gates and MS has to signal that it's in it for the long-haul.
What do you expect him to say, "If this doesn't win it for us or make a lot of money, we're bailing."?
If he did that, it would undercut the sales of the X360. Some are going to hesitate because there may not be long-term support for the platform. Some would argue for instance that they're bailing on the Xbox, whereas Sony is talking about a 10-year or more cycle for the PS2.
Megadrive1988
22-Nov-2005, 21:11
I wonder what Sony is going to do with the PlayStation 4 when the time comes... I wonder if they'll even have enough money to bring another console in the market. :???:
http://techon.nikkeibp.co.jp/article/NEWS/20051027/110194/1027sce_cell_roadmap.jpg
try to outpower MS again with an advanced next-gen CELL processor
Bill's point was that in the biggest sales months, nov and dec, xbox outsold PS2 in north america. That doesn't mean they "won 2004" but it's something to be proud of if your MS, and speaks very loudly to momentum, mindset and the current marketplace in the US and Canada.
If you think about it just at face-value as you did, then MS won; but Sony was transitioning from the 50K series to the new slim PStwo during those months and there was a pretty nasty shortage due to Sony bleeding down the supply in the channels. For example, C|Net's headline was:
"PlayStation 2 shortage rattles shoppers"
I don't really consider it a win, not even to speak towards the concept of "momentum," when your competitor is shifting to a vastly higher profit product and selling every unit/sold out of a 4 year old, $150, console which is selling in for $350 on Amazon Marketplace and $750USD equivalent in the UK. (Link (http://news.com.com/PlayStation+2+shortage+rattles+shoppers/2100-1043_3-5471766.html))
EDIT: I was just going to post about who was going to be the first to post the quisi-Cell Roadmap, but MD beat me to it. :)
Megadrive1988
22-Nov-2005, 21:18
I think Sony are playing the long game. A much longer game than MS. I figure Sony expect MS to play a third hand.
The painful and expensive shift to CELL will come into it's own in 8 years time.
I expect Sony to scale up the Playstation 4. It won't be a new console at all, just a PS3 with more CELLS. They should reap major economies of scale, die shrink, and all those other things about Chip manufacturing which goes over my head.
People with a PS3 will be able to upgrade the console to a PS4 by buying an add-on.
Blu-Ray will still be the format of choice. Without a major shift in display devices there is no need to go to a new format.
The adoption of 360 and PS3 will be slower than with the present generation. We are reaching the point of diminishing returns for the mass market consumer. You need a HDTV to enjoy these new consoles, that will make the adoption rate much slower.
On a SD TV the difference between the current gen and next gen is not great enough.
The PS2 still has to hit the $99 price point.
Once the Hardcore have all bought their next-gen consoles, sales will be very hard to come buy.
For me the next-gen is like High End PC gaming, DVD-Audio and Laser Discs - a niche market for commited enthusiasts.
Mr Massmarket will stick with his current console for 3 - 4 years.
The situation in Europe is even more conservative, going from 575i PAL to 720p is not the same leap as crappy 480i NTSC. HDTV will struggle to take hold in Europe for a long time. House sizes are much smaller and screen sizes above 32" are rare. HD TV really shines at sizes above 32".
In Japan we have the opposite situation. The next gen is needed more than ever to grow the market. But it is there that the Nintendo Revolution will probably have the greatest disruption effect. The Japanese culture prizes innovation over raw power. Both MS and Sony could find themselves on the receiving end of this paradigm shift.
Very happy to be proved wrong about my assumptions about the adoption of new technology. It will be interesting to look back in 2 years time and see if MS have shifted a significant number of 360s worldwide.
PS3 will not be upgradable into PS4. it is almost impossible in every way, including technically. PS3 will not have the bandwidth or architecture to support PS4 CPU and GPU.
mckmas8808
22-Nov-2005, 22:00
http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=632599
try to outpower MS again with an advanced next-gen CELL processor
This man speaks the truthess.:lol:
Inane_Dork
22-Nov-2005, 22:08
WHY THE HELL DID YOU WROTE THAT!?I don't know why he write that either. ;)
scooby_dooby
22-Nov-2005, 23:10
Ahh, maybe because you posted this,
Ahhhh maybe you should learn how to read?
I said this shows the level of momentum and brand awareness that the XBOX posesses in the NA market. No more, no less, don't blame me if you read more into my words than what I've written.
The mere fact that it even surpassed PS2 is a feat in itself, and should silence once and for all those poster who insist on maintaining the position that XBOX a failiure, far from it.
If someone had've said back in 2001 that 3 years later XBOX would outsell PS2 for the biggest two months of the year in NA they would've been laughed at.
Shortages is a convenient excuse, but there was no real PS2 shortage, if you wanted one you could get one.
I just see people in denial and rationalising, "Oh well that's when Halo came out" or "Oh well PS2 had shortages you see"....whatever....excuses aside this shows that the XBOX brand is a very close 2nd in NA which is much more than most people here give it credit for.
mckmas8808
22-Nov-2005, 23:15
Shortages is a convenient excuse, but there was no real PS2 shortage, if you wanted one you could get one.
I just see people in denial and rationalising, "Oh well that's when Halo came out" or "Oh well PS2 had shortages you see"....whatever....excuses aside this shows that the XBOX brand is a very close 2nd in NA which is much more than most people here give it credit for.
For real scooby there was a PS2 shortage then. BUT, at the sametime I agree with you that being MS selling more Xboxes than Sony could PS2s in those two months does mean ALOT!!
Xbox is FAR FAR FAR from a failure. Just don't take those two months to your head and think more of it than it is.
drpepper
22-Nov-2005, 23:33
Scooby, those 2 months were an anomoly... Why? Cause Halo 2, its release was enough to spur a spike in Xbox sales. After those months though the Halo 2 "halo" effect was over.
It's easy to point out outliers in a statistical sample, but its the overall trends that speak out.
Helstar
23-Nov-2005, 02:06
Will X360 continue to expand MSs market share as a percentage of the total market? Most likely, yes.
Everything is happening to Microsoft SHRINK their market share.
-PS3 is as easy as X360 to program for (while Xbox1 was way ahead of PS2 in this point);
-PS3 is WAY more powerfull than X360 (more than XBOX is more powerfull than PS2);
-PS3 is today more expected and more well known than PS2 in 1999;
- The top3 games from these 18 X360 games do not look or fell any better than 2004 PC games, so gamers could NOT see next gen in these 18 titles... they now KNOW Next Gen is yet to come in 2006.
-PS3 is WAY more powerfull than X360 (more than XBOX is more powerfull than PS2);
I thought this didn't matter?
Anyway, we dont know that yet.
<nu>faust
23-Nov-2005, 02:26
what is going on woth these forums lately,in just one week(i'm wondering if this has to do with 360 launch?) beyond3d forums turned in to other gaming forums which has hundred something obsessive teenager yelling ps3 wil Ownzzz,doWn with TeH ms/sonYY to each other.Fan boyish childish comments,pointless polls&threads everywhere lately?!!! What happened to respectful,intelligent arguments ppl?!?
lip2lip
23-Nov-2005, 02:39
I feel this is a valid point:
microsoft feels it can capture atleast 51% of home (usa) market with 360, and wish to start laying ground for new 3rd gen box. life cycle for xbox is 4 years, may be demand and short life cycles (relative) forces microsoft to make comittments now.
dukmahsik
23-Nov-2005, 03:06
Everything is happening to Microsoft SHRINK their market share.
-PS3 is as easy as X360 to program for (while Xbox1 was way ahead of PS2 in this point);
-PS3 is WAY more powerfull than X360 (more than XBOX is more powerfull than PS2);
-PS3 is today more expected and more well known than PS2 in 1999;
- The top3 games from these 18 X360 games do not look or fell any better than 2004 PC games, so gamers could NOT see next gen in these 18 titles... they now KNOW Next Gen is yet to come in 2006.
- wrong
- not proven
- wrong
AlphaWolf
23-Nov-2005, 03:38
Everything is happening to Microsoft SHRINK their market share.
-PS3 is as easy as X360 to program for (while Xbox1 was way ahead of PS2 in this point);
-PS3 is WAY more powerfull than X360 (more than XBOX is more powerfull than PS2);
-PS3 is today more expected and more well known than PS2 in 1999;
- The top3 games from these 18 X360 games do not look or fell any better than 2004 PC games, so gamers could NOT see next gen in these 18 titles... they now KNOW Next Gen is yet to come in 2006.
:lol:
You are basing this on what information?
mckmas8808
23-Nov-2005, 05:49
I feel this is a valid point:
microsoft feels it can capture atleast 51% of home (usa) market with 360, and wish to start laying ground for new 3rd gen box. life cycle for xbox is 4 years, may be demand and short life cycles (relative) forces microsoft to make comittments now.
You don't think the Xbox 360 will have a 4 year life cycle do you?
You don't think the Xbox 360 will have a 4 year life cycle do you?
Why not if X360 plays out to be similar to X1? MS will do it again if they're in a similar position with with Xbox.
The issue is they'll end up like Sega.. pissing off a lot of their supporters.
thatdude90210
23-Nov-2005, 06:46
Those Walmart and Best Buy lines didn't look all that pissed off... seems like people are ready for the next gen. With the rate of development of today's tech, maybe the 5 - 6 years life cycles are just too long.
MS will probably keep shortening the life cycle until Sony can't affort to keep up. :)
Those Walmart and Best Buy lines didn't look all that pissed off... seems like people are ready for the next gen. With the rate of development of today's tech, maybe the 5 - 6 years life cycles are just too long.
MS will probably keep shortening the life cycle until Sony can't affort to keep up. :)
Compared to keeping up with the latest graphics cards, the console cycle is way too long and the cost is drop in the bucket. The difference is the shift of development as one platform to another is not as transparent.
Personally, 5-6 is is fine by me as I still have plenty of Xbox/PS2/Cube games to get into. This also allows devs to work their magic on the platform. In a 4 year cycle, good games (wrt to the platform) dont see daylight 'til its 2 or 3 yr of the console life.
If 4 yrs be the norm, then I might as well stick with my PC if that was the case.
Ms will be in deep trouble though, if their hardware is markedly weaker.
In that case, they will just lose worse and worse. Then they will have to bring out new hardware.
While Sony would have the luxury of launching later with better tech yet again.
That's why MS was dumb with Xbox1. They had more power, and they should have let this gen gone on until Sony launched PS3. This gen's dynamics only favored Xbox more and more over time.
Basically whoever is more powerful can ride the current gen as long as they want. Dont tell me with more hype and the triple A titles it was already getting Xbox1 wouldn't have kept gaining on PS2 indefinitly.
On another note, I know they're middle aged men running billion dollar companies, but I bet the high ups at MS like consoles, and stay in consoles, partly because face it, they're toys, and boys like toys.
I mean I bet this market is a helluva lot more fun than software. Because it's hardware. It's competition. It's toys. It's my toy is better than your toy. You cant get that in "Office 900082" versus..whatever.
mckmas8808
23-Nov-2005, 07:47
Those Walmart and Best Buy lines didn't look all that pissed off... seems like people are ready for the next gen. With the rate of development of today's tech, maybe the 5 - 6 years life cycles are just too long.
MS will probably keep shortening the life cycle until Sony can't affort to keep up. :)
Dude every console provider is coming out with a new console now. In 2009 that will not be the case. Please don't repeat this old tired excuse.
Thanks.:smile:
6 years is way too long.
I'm a technology guy. I'm always ready for the next gen. And I really dont "get" people who aren't.
Also, if anything, I think technology has slowed down. You used to get six months graphics card cycles. Now last gen Nvidia waited 15 months between major architectural changes (6800 Ultra was the top Nvidia card from March 2004 until June 2005). ATI attempted a half hearted refresh that cycle with X850, but you were talking 10% on the clocks. Nvidia didn't even bother. And sites rarely even do CPU reviews anymore, which used to be regular.
I suppose as multi-core picks up, that may change. Still, I suspect increasing heat and other issues will slow the pace of advancment somewhat over what it was five years ago.
6 years is way too long.
I'm a technology guy. I'm always ready for the next gen. And I really dont "get" people who aren't.
Also, if anything, I think technology has slowed down. You used to get six months graphics card cycles. Now last gen Nvidia waited 15 months between major architectural changes (6800 Ultra was the top Nvidia card from March 2004 until June 2005). ATI attempted a half hearted refresh that cycle with X850, but you were talking 10% on the clocks. Nvidia didn't even bother. And sites rarely even do CPU reviews anymore, which used to be regular.
I suppose as multi-core picks up, that may change. Still, I suspect increasing heat and other issues will slow the pace of advancment somewhat over what it was five years ago.
Shortening the cycle will only give developers less time to reach the potential of the system, resulting in expensive hardware that never really gets maxed out. This would neither benefit the consumer, the hardware vendor nor the developers/publishers. Or do you prefer to buy PC GPUs in 6 months intervals that never reach their potential YOU payed for? I'd rather buy something today knowing it's going to be effectively used 4-6 years down the line, enabling developers to make use of libraries they developed, experience they gained resulting in new gameplay elements and innovation. At the same time, they can make money on the products which will enable them to invest into newer consoles once the cycle restarts.
6 years is way too long.
I'm a technology guy. I'm always ready for the next gen. And I really dont "get" people who aren't.
Also, if anything, I think technology has slowed down. You used to get six months graphics card cycles. Now last gen Nvidia waited 15 months between major architectural changes (6800 Ultra was the top Nvidia card from March 2004 until June 2005). ATI attempted a half hearted refresh that cycle with X850, but you were talking 10% on the clocks. Nvidia didn't even bother. And sites rarely even do CPU reviews anymore, which used to be regular.
I suppose as multi-core picks up, that may change. Still, I suspect increasing heat and other issues will slow the pace of advancment somewhat over what it was five years ago.
Bill.. I am all for new tech and toys, but there should be a balance. Fine 6 yrs is too long for your liking, but are saying you don't play any of the latest games on the PS2 (assuming u have one) just because the console is that old?
I have no issue forking out $500-650 AU$ for a X360 when it is release in Australia, but at the moment I am not impressed with its line up and dont feel the need to pick one up until there are games I see as 'must have'. This is very similar to what happened with the Xbox and only in the last couple of years IMO there were 'must have' titles.
It might just be me, but I don't sense the excitement and buzz like when the PS2 was about to launch. That or MSG4 has set a precedence and or expectation.
Wow looking at all these posts maybe the console forums should be re-named " PS3 forums " ... :)
http://techon.nikkeibp.co.jp/article/NEWS/20051027/110194/1027sce_cell_roadmap.jpg
try to outpower MS again with an advanced next-gen CELL processor
Oh wow. :) The Cell chip will be very cheap if they got it down to that size. But would it be cheaper in 45nm process? :???:
- wrong
- not proven
- wrong
According to some developers it is not as hard as they thought it would have been to develop on the Cell proc.
Power is not a concern to me.
Yes the PlayStation 3 will be more anticipated than PlayStation 2. Why? The brand name is more recognized than it ever was.
fulcizombie
23-Nov-2005, 10:22
Everything is happening to Microsoft SHRINK their market share.
-PS3 is as easy as X360 to program for (while Xbox1 was way ahead of PS2 in this point);
-PS3 is WAY more powerfull than X360 (more than XBOX is more powerfull than PS2);
-PS3 is today more expected and more well known than PS2 in 1999;
- The top3 games from these 18 X360 games do not look or fell any better than 2004 PC games, so gamers could NOT see next gen in these 18 titles... they now KNOW Next Gen is yet to come in 2006.
-No
-No.You could see the xbox'superiority in raw numbers(ram,GPU e.t.c) while you can't when comparing the numbers between the 360 and the ps3 which is to be expected since there was an 18 month difference between the ps2 launch(in its home territory.March2000) and the xbox launch(in its home territory November 2001).Now we are talking about a few months difference(PS3 is supposed to launch in Japan this spring).
-No.It's quite evident that the xbox360 can certainly hold its own when it comes to marketing/hype and financial resourses compared to the ps3.
Except that the casulas that bring the $$$ dont have a gaming pc and for many of them the transition is from the ps2 to the xbox360.Let's wait and see how the ACTUAL LAUNCH PS3 games will look before making more comments,
And i agree,next gen will come in 2006 with games like Gears of war and mass effect.
Oh so MS outselling Sony 2 months of the year (and Sony outselling MS the other 10) suddenly means, in your own words, "Also Xbox won 2004 in the largest videogame market" ?
Funny enough it was only when Halo 2 came out and PS2 had no big games coming out in that period except maybe MGS3, and the momentum lasted 2 months. Hardly anything to write home about.
You just had to forget about GTA SA.. :P
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