View Full Version : Peter Moore on a worldwide launch
Shifty Geezer
13-Oct-2005, 11:42
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=12214
Microsoft vice president Peter Moore has conceded that organising a global launch for the Xbox 360 is proving to be a huge challenge, admitting: "If we knew what we were getting into, we might not have done it."
...
Speaking to the BBC, Moore said: "There's a reason no one has done this before and we are figuring that out."
"We're going to ship all around the world; how we're going to do that, I don't know. We're going to rent every 747 we can find," he added.
Perhaps this'll be the one and only worldwide launch? Is there any reason this is harder than the usual supplying the world after launch other than the volumes required?
london-boy
13-Oct-2005, 12:09
I've read somewhere that MS intend to make 150.000 X360 each month for the first year. Not a lot but it's to be expected.
Not sure how many they have made already, i suppose they will have about a million ready at launch (figure pulled out from my very nice ass).
I can only imagine how slow PS3 production is going to be...
Gholbine
13-Oct-2005, 12:29
Wouldn't Sony have more production capacity than Microsoft?
And wouldn't they have already made millions of Cells so they can focus on RSX 100% for a while?
london-boy
13-Oct-2005, 12:33
Wouldn't Sony have more production capacity than Microsoft?
And wouldn't they have already made millions of Cells so they can focus on RSX 100% for a while?
Well not many people on here will be able to answer those questions! :grin:
I think Cell and RSX are the least of Sony's problem. It's that Bluray drive that i expect will make things a lot more complicated than we thought. If they need to keep price down and still have a working drive, that will take some real skill. And time.
Gholbine
13-Oct-2005, 12:40
Yeah, I sort of forgot about Blu-Ray :-D
Interesting to see how Sony handles that, although I think it's fairly safe to say that Blu-Ray production techniques/costs is very high on Sony's list. At the top of the list, probably.
Harry Ola
13-Oct-2005, 12:42
I did wonder if some of this was aimed at Sony. Perhaps Peter Moore is trying to disuade Sony from trying a similar world wide launch, and hence extend the time advantage of launching first in some territories.
Or it could be a case of getting the bad news in early, so that when it turns out OK, everyone thinks well done MS.
Or it could be they are making a pigs ear of launching this console and this is just one part of it. Yeah, it'll be this one.
london-boy
13-Oct-2005, 13:28
DC Again? heheheh
Please stop trolling these boards. You made the exact same comment on this thread last month http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/showthread.php?p=571744#post571744 and got it locked by Sonic.
Thanks.
(BTW Am i the all-seeing-all-knowing or what...!)
Powderkeg
13-Oct-2005, 14:05
Wouldn't Sony have more production capacity than Microsoft?
And wouldn't they have already made millions of Cells so they can focus on RSX 100% for a while?
Sony had massive supply problems with the PS2, despite it being a staggered launch. The PS3 has even more unproven tech in it, so I would be very surprised if they could avoid having supply problems as well.
And, I think both companies will "suffer" from a higher than expected demand.
Shifty Geezer
13-Oct-2005, 14:12
There's a difference between the expected supply problems of a staggered launch and a worldwide launch I'd guess, seeing as MS are talking about it proving very difficult and suggesting if they had known beforehand what it would take (bad research there!) they probably would have stuck with the tried staggered approach.
Still, going through that difficult worldwide launch process might be very beneficial, as it could set XB360 up in some territories many months before the rivals appear.
london-boy
13-Oct-2005, 14:14
Sony had massive supply problems with the PS2, despite it being a staggered launch. The PS3 has even more unproven tech in it, so I would be very surprised if they could avoid having supply problems as well.
And, I think both companies will "suffer" from a higher than expected demand.
I still expect Sony to be in more trouble though. Not only demand will be higher, but that Bluray drive gives me the creeps. I can't imagine the amounts of faulty early units.
DISCLAIMER: This is not a comment on Sony's manufacturing abilities or Quality Control, just saying that a new low-cost Bluray drive WILL be troubly. Even a "simple" DVD drive on PS2 was troubly.
I've read somewhere that MS intend to make 150.000 X360 each month for the first year. Not a lot but it's to be expected.
Not sure how many they have made already, i suppose they will have about a million ready at launch (figure pulled out from my very nice ass).
I can only imagine how slow PS3 production is going to be...
Not quite..
It was more aprox 100 000 a week til launch and after launch (or close to launch) it would have been up:ed to 150 000 a week.
150 000 a month is like.."A worldwide-release.. forgeraborit" :D
london-boy
13-Oct-2005, 14:23
Not quite..
It was more aprox 100 000 a week til launch and after launch (or close to launch) it would have been up:ed to 150 000 a week.
150 000 a month is like.."A worldwide-release.. forgeraborit" :D
Oh yeah then maybe it was "a week"... :oops:
Well 150k units a week is quite a lot, everything considered....
mckmas8808
13-Oct-2005, 14:27
Really interesting comment. I can't wait to see how it plays out.
Powderkeg
13-Oct-2005, 14:35
There's a difference between the expected supply problems of a staggered launch and a worldwide launch I'd guess, seeing as MS are talking about it proving very difficult and suggesting if they had known beforehand what it would take (bad research there!) they probably would have stuck with the tried staggered approach.
Still, going through that difficult worldwide launch process might be very beneficial, as it could set XB360 up in some territories many months before the rivals appear.
Based on Peter Moore's comments, I would think the problems are logistical, rather than a shortage of supplies.
"We're going to ship all around the world; how we're going to do that, I don't know. We're going to rent every 747 we can find,"
Sony had massive supply problems with the PS2, despite it being a staggered launch. The PS3 has even more unproven tech in it, so I would be very surprised if they could avoid having supply problems as well.
And, I think both companies will "suffer" from a higher than expected demand.
Well, among other things Sony was having very real problems getting GS's fabbed; hopefully they will avoid that issue with Cell and RSX this go around. They seem to have 90nm down pat right now, and I think it was the supply issue Kutaragi was alluding to when he indicated Sony would not try and push the 65nm node until after launch.
The blu-ray player, I agree that's going to be a possible supply bottleneck. They may be sourcing some externally from their partners for a while to begin with - something that might drive up prices for them, but we'll just have to see how it plays out.
Oh yeah then maybe it was "a week"... :oops:
Well 150k units a week is quite a lot, everything considered....
Yup. It was a week.
One of those reports estimated 2 - 2,5 M units this year. FWIW.
Mefisutoferesu
13-Oct-2005, 15:00
Why does everyone fear blu-ray production? As far as I can tell the drive is no different than a DVD, the only real changes are the hueristics and the laser, or so I think, and as far as I'm aware the laser spec has been down pat for quite some time, which means Sony's fabs can and may be cranking them out as we speak. GPU wise Sony should be OK, if TSMC can produce good yeilds with Xenos, RSX should fair rather well with Sony's new advanced fabs. CELL should hold up too. Sony's already produced them for dev kits, so we know the tech isn't screwy in production, so that a dodged bullet. Yeah, the size, but Sony seems to have calculated that with the 8th SPE, so I imagine there aren't any surprises and they have yeilds at an acceptable level.
My 'fear' on the PS3 blu-ray drives stems primarily from the size and complexity of the read heads themselves, rather than any questions on the specs/standards. The only ones I've seen are huge compared to the more mature DVD heads. Now - I did also see recently that Panasonic has a blu-ray notebook drive coming out early 2006, so maybe the read head for blu-ray has already been significantly micronized. Everythign else aside though, just on a volume basis it would mean that someone has devoted significant production capacity soley to blu-ray head production for purposes of outfitting the PS3, since I am not sure what volume manufacturers on the whole will be producing at so early into blu-ray's life. Maybe the CE arm of Sony is already gearing up to help the SCE division out on this though.
london-boy
13-Oct-2005, 15:07
Why does everyone fear blu-ray production? As far as I can tell the drive is no different than a DVD, the only real changes are the hueristics and the laser, or so I think, and as far as I'm aware the laser spec has been down pat for quite some time, which means Sony's fabs can and may be cranking them out as we speak. GPU wise Sony should be OK, if TSMC can produce good yeilds with Xenos, RSX should fair rather well with Sony's new advanced fabs. CELL should hold up too. Sony's already produced them for dev kits, so we know the tech isn't screwy in production, so that a dodged bullet. Yeah, the size, but Sony seems to have calculated that with the 8th SPE, so I imagine there aren't any surprises and they have yeilds at an acceptable level.
Well it's hardly "no different from DVD". Just the precision is MUCH higher, for obvious reasons. That's what creates problems. Then the laser, and making parts that are cheap but will work.
It's a matter of cost and manufacturability ratio. You can get drives now no problem, but at what price?
It's not a "just like a DVD drive". If it were, we would have had Bluray and HDDVD drives for a long time already.
Gholbine
13-Oct-2005, 15:24
Well it's hardly "no different from DVD". Just the precision is MUCH higher, for obvious reasons. That's what creates problems. Then the laser, and making parts that are cheap but will work.
It's a matter of cost and manufacturability ratio. You can get drives now no problem, but at what price?
It's not a "just like a DVD drive". If it were, we would have had Bluray and HDDVD drives for a long time already.
I'm not so sure that's true.
HD-DVD and Blu-Ray have only become neccessary recently, because of the advent of HDTV's. Before this, neither format had any real mass-market appeal, until now. Since the Sony (any many others) will have been producing Blu-Ray lasers for 4 years by the time the PS3 hits, I imagine that's ample time to crank out the technology at a fair rate and price.
mckmas8808
13-Oct-2005, 15:29
I can only hope Gholbine you are right.
london-boy
13-Oct-2005, 15:30
HD-DVD and Blu-Ray have only become neccessary recently, because of the advent of HDTV's.
Well Bluray and HDDVD are not only for movies you know. We have had the "need" for higher capacity discs for quite a while now.
Before this, neither format had any real mass-market appeal, until now.
Market appeal doesn't mean that it's not needed. In the end, if BDROM/HDDVD drives were cheap enough to be released today at a decent price, they'd be out.
Since the Sony (any many others) will have been producing Blu-Ray lasers for 4 years by the time the PS3 hits, I imagine that's ample time to crank out the technology at a fair rate and price.
Well yes obviously the cost for manufacturability will come down. I was only saying that between today and PS3 release (6 months or so?), Bluray drives will be a bitch to get right at the price Sony wish to pay for them.
There's always a compromise between cost and technology and finding the right balance is tough.
Mefisutoferesu
13-Oct-2005, 15:37
Indeed, xbd, that's part of the reason I've been wondering why I'm wondering about the blu-ray troubles. If there's really that much trouble with the bds, they wouldn't have moved on to attempting laptop drives. As to the head, I was not aware they were so huge, I imagine the extra precision needed to read the data lines? Or is it the laser itself? Oh, perhaps it's that hueristics chip or whatever... the spin causes deformation on the disc so inorder to keep data from corrupting they developed a more advanced algorith for more accurately reading 0/1s or something like that... dunno if it's still necessary for the BDs with the tdk coating.
ANYWAY, physically, outside of the laser head though the blu-ray drive shouldn't deviate that much from the standard DVD drive... not enough to cause a huge spike in prices or drop in yeilds. I can only imagine it's the laser that's the trouble, and I don't see why they can't start building the laser heads now? Is the spec for the laser head still not settled? I imagine it would be since there are the non-coated BD burners out there now. Obviously, you were hinting at the opposite of this thinking, l-b, but I really don't see it. Could you walk me through it a bit?
london-boy
13-Oct-2005, 15:45
Indeed, xbd, that's part of the reason I've been wondering why I'm wondering about the blu-ray troubles. If there's really that much trouble with the bds, they wouldn't have moved on to attempting laptop drives. As to the head, I was not aware they were so huge, I imagine the extra precision needed to read the data lines? Or is it the laser itself? Oh, perhaps it's that hueristics chip or whatever... the spin causes deformation on the disc so inorder to keep data from corrupting they developed a more advanced algorith for more accurately reading 0/1s or something like that... dunno if it's still necessary for the BDs with the tdk coating.
ANYWAY, physically, outside of the laser head though the blu-ray drive shouldn't deviate that much from the standard DVD drive... not enough to cause a huge spike in prices or drop in yeilds. I can only imagine it's the laser that's the trouble, and I don't see why they can't start building the laser heads now? Is the spec for the laser head still not settled? I imagine it would be since there are the non-coated BD burners out there now. Obviously, you were hinting at the opposite of this thinking, l-b, but I really don't see it. Could you walk me through it a bit?
As i said, it's all about the compromise between cost and tech. Sony have BDROM drives working already, in the labs or outside, but that doesn't mean it's just easy to release PS3 with a fully functional BDROM drive at a decent cost.
Precision, Laser, error correction, all these things are hard to get right, and need PROPER parts, which still cost a little bit, definately much more than DVD drives.
Just thing that in the same area of a DVD, BDROMs have 6 times the amount of "grooves and holes" (so to speak) to achieve the higher capacity. That requires high precision.
The laser, well i'm not sure what the problems with that could be to be honest, but i'm sure there are always little things that can go wrong.
Shifty Geezer
13-Oct-2005, 15:45
I think the jumbo heads are due to red-laser support (DVD and CD). Basically they need two heads in one to be backwardly compatible with the older formats. There's nothing else intrinsically needed to be bigger AFAIK.
I think the jumbo heads are due to red-laser support (DVD and CD). Basically they need two heads in one to be backwardly compatible with the older formats. There's nothing else intrinsically needed to be bigger AFAIK.
The jumbo heads are definitely the 'tri-wavelength' ones, but their size relative to the standard DVD read head is definitely more than triple (at least that was the case last year). Still with Panasonic and their laptop drive being tri-wavelength as well, there have clearly been strides made. Hopefully the drive we get is a good combination of size, speed, and cost.
Acert93
13-Oct-2005, 16:26
Oh yeah then maybe it was "a week"... :oops:
Well 150k units a week is quite a lot, everything considered.... :lol:
150k/mo = 1.8M / yr
150k/week = 7.8M / yr
6M difference L-B! I was sitting here thinking, "MS is teh idiots!11" Even if they started production 6 months before launch (they didn't) that would not even be 1M units for a world wide launch :shock: We would be looking at an install base of LESS than 3M come fall 2006!
If it is "month" then stick a fork in them ;)
expletive
13-Oct-2005, 16:48
I think these comments are clearly posturing of some sort whether to set expectations of failure, or reap additional kudos upon success. I don't think theres any other reason for Moore to discuss how they possibly made a bad decision by going worldwide with the press.
J
Acert93
13-Oct-2005, 16:56
I think these comments are clearly posturing of some sort whether to set expectations of failure, or reap additional kudos upon success. I don't think theres any other reason for Moore to discuss how they possibly made a bad decision by going worldwide with the press.
J The article I read yesterday from Allard saying there would be some dissappointment from stores and consumers was interpreted by myself as saying, "There are gonna be only so many units, so like every other major launch some people are gonna miss out and be upset". If they have 1M units in the US, even if they only sell 90% of the units, there are going to people stores and places bare and people who want them unable to find them.
Its gonna happen. It happened with the N64, it happened with the PS2, it will happen with Xbox 360 and PS3.
Alpha_Spartan
13-Oct-2005, 16:58
Shit, I'd hate to be the poor sap who gets stuck with a core system at Christmas because Steve Ballmer wanted 25% of the consoles to be cheap.
I say screw Japan. Respectfully, of course. I don't see why it's such a high priority. Those premium boxes should have been NA systems while the Japanese launch is pushed back to I don't care when. I'd rather piss off the 5 fans in Japan than the 250,000 NA gamers who get turned away because there are no more 360's. Priorities, MS, priorities.
When will Microsoft get over their little Japan fettish?
Guden Oden
13-Oct-2005, 17:07
I don't see how logistics could possibly be an issue, it's not as if nobody's ever shipped a lot of stuff across the globe before, particulary when it comes to a multinational corporation like MS.
Only way it might be a problem is if they'd have limited supply and problems to meet initial quotas, but that's more of a manufacturing issue anyway.
I wonder how hard it will get to get a hold of a 360 the first months. I mean after the first few launch units are sold. . . Wil there even be enough for the hardcore gamers?
BTW, just read that many online tech-shops are almost pre-sold out already her in Norway. Another interesting thing is that approximately 95% of norwegians have pre-ordered the most expensive unit! Can someone find numbers from anywhere else?
expletive
13-Oct-2005, 17:19
Has anyone seen any 360 commercials yet? Is it me or is there an inordinate amount of buzz surrounding this launch considering the dearth of advertising we've seen thus far? The only thing i can think of is the mountain dew promo in the USA but imo, that promoted awareness that the 360 was coming but nothing in any of the marketing that would stand up and make people actually want the console.
J
Yeah, I'm not sure if that's purposeful or not, but I guess regardless since it's more or less sold out for the holiday ahead of the fact, advertising right now just isn't all that important for MS. The viral seems to have done the job up until now. I'm sure come Nov 22nd we'll start seeing something in terms of a media blitz from them (or maybe not, doesn't really matter).
Shifty Geezer
13-Oct-2005, 17:24
Yes, same as I think happened with PSP. I wonder if advertising is being avoided as sales are guarenteed without it. Be like wasting money to attract more customers than you can supply.
expletive
13-Oct-2005, 17:25
Yeah, I'm not sure if that's purposeful or not, but I guess regardless since it's more or less sold out for the holiday ahead of the fact, advertising right now just isn't all that important for MS. The viral seems to have done the job up until now. I'm sure come Nov 22nd we'll start seeing something in terms of a media blitz from them (or maybe not, doesn't really matter).
Do you think there is any benefit for continuing to advertize once you have established you cant even meet the current demand? Possibly driving the 'buzz' into a 'frenzy'? Is this osmething that would carry over past the holiday season or does that frenzy have an expiration date of Jan 1 2006? :)
J
Mefisutoferesu
13-Oct-2005, 17:31
There's a Japanese commercial. It's terrible, but there's one. Well, it's not terrible it's just very American.
Do you think there is any benefit for continuing to advertize once you have established you cant even meet the current demand? Possibly driving the 'buzz' into a 'frenzy'? Is this osmething that would carry over past the holiday season or does that frenzy have an expiration date of Jan 1 2006? :)
J
Yeah I think if there's an expiration date, it's when PS3 begins to near launch - then I'm sure MS will go all out. But until then, they might as well save some marketing dollars. The fact is I think their in-store kiosks will be impressive enough that even some casuals who wander by will have their interest piqued. That was a good move IMO on their part.
Yes, same as I think happened with PSP. I wonder if advertising is being avoided as sales are guarenteed without it. Be like wasting money to attract more customers than you can supply.
Really?
Over here, the PSP was everywhere! I mean everywhere:-) On the train, busses, subways, in the streets, in papers, magazines.
I'll not be surpsised if we'll seeing the same amount of ads for X360 come November.
I remember when the Xbox launched, didn't MS spend like 500 million $ on adverising? I know it was very important back then because it was their first entry, but I don't see it hurt this time either.
Really?
Over here, the PSP was everywhere! I mean everywhere:-) On the train, busses, subways, in the streets, in papers, magazines.
I'll not be surpsised if we'll seeing the same amount of ads for X360 come November.
I remember when the Xbox launched, didn't MS spend like 500 million $ on adverising? I know it was very important back then because it was their first entry, but I don't see it hurt this time either.
Well, in the US the PSP was nowhere (except maybe print ads). Then after it's release there was a strange television ad that ran for a while... an ad that could have been improved upon vastly in my opinion. But hey, did well enough without it all I guess.
Well, in the US the PSP was nowhere (except maybe print ads). Then after it's release there was a strange television ad that ran for a while... an ad that could have been improved upon vastly in my opinion. But hey, did well enough without it all I guess.
Yeah, of course they would do good without an enormous effort in advertising, at least in Europe when it had already launched in both the Asian and the US market a long time ago. Like noone had heard about the PSP over here this september;-)
Black Dragon37
13-Oct-2005, 17:40
Sony had massive supply problems with the PS2, despite it being a staggered launch. The PS3 has even more unproven tech in it, so I would be very surprised if they could avoid having supply problems as well.
And, I think both companies will "suffer" from a higher than expected demand.
The PS2 suffered shortages because they didn't have enough raw resources to manufacture the consoles.
Because Sony's promoting lots of stuff the PS3 has to the public (the Cell chip, Blu-ray) at this current time, I don't see that happening again.
I am pissed off at Peter Moore though... the dumbass.:mad:
london-boy
13-Oct-2005, 17:43
The PS2 suffered shortages because they didn't have enough raw resources to manufacture the consoles.
Because Sony's promoting lots of stuff the PS3 has to the public (the Cell chip, Blu-ray) at this current time, I don't see that happening again.
?? I didn't get that. What does Sony's promoting stuff have anything to do with their ability to crank out enough PS3's to meet demand? Which they won't by the way, demand will just be too high.
Shifty Geezer
13-Oct-2005, 17:47
Really?
Over here, the PSP was everywhere! I mean everywhere:-) On the train, busses, subways, in the streets, in papers, magazines.
I'll not be surpsised if we'll seeing the same amount of ads for X360 come November.
In the UK all I heard about PSP (apart from gaming internet sites of course!) was in the general media. PSP was mentioned in several newspaper articles and the like in Lifestyle/Entertainment sections. I don't know of any specific Sony ads on TV or Press. Maybe local advertising was in response to media coverage? Perhaps Sony felt PSP was getting enough coverage in the UK to not require advertising?
From what I heard (and xbd confirms) in the US there was little coverage too. It would make sense not to advertise a product you know has already got enough attention. Hence the Japanese advert Mefisutoferesu (great name. Really easy to remember how to spell :p) has mentioned.
In the UK all I heard about PSP (apart from gaming internet sites of course!) was in the general media. PSP was mentioned in several newspaper articles and the like in Lifestyle/Entertainment sections. I don't know of any specific Sony ads on TV or Press. Maybe local advertising was in response to media coverage? Perhaps Sony felt PSP was getting enough coverage in the UK to not require advertising?
From what I heard (and xbd confirms) in the US there was little coverage too. It would make sense not to advertise a product you know has already got enough attention. Hence the Japanese advert Mefisutoferesu (great name. Really easy to remember how to spell :p) has mentioned.
Yes I would think so too. Everyone knew about PSP so why all the fuzz right. On the other hand, I don't remember seeing a lot of ads for the DS launch. They are still showing a television ad for the PSP, strange. It's like they are forcing teh supah PSP on us!!!11!!
scooby_dooby
13-Oct-2005, 18:38
This is MS we're talking here, the advertising blitz will be ridiculous. They're just waiting, it's a little early to start hyping something that is still 6 weeks away. It'll probably start real soon here....
Powderkeg
13-Oct-2005, 20:09
The PS2 suffered shortages because they didn't have enough raw resources to manufacture the consoles.
Because Sony's promoting lots of stuff the PS3 has to the public (the Cell chip, Blu-ray) at this current time, I don't see that happening again.
That makes no sense at all.
You are basically saying that Sony had supply problems before, but there will be a much higher demand for PS3 components such as BluRay and Cell so there won't be supply problems now. If the demand for PS3 components is significantly higher, then wouldn't it make sense that the supply would be stretched even thinner, haaving to go into multiple products?
> "at a decent cost."
Why are you so concerned about that? Let Sony worry about it's costs. I think they would not include a part in a consumer device that they know will most likely be manufactured on a scale of over a hundred million, if it's cost was unreasonible. Sony does not consider the cost for the first 100K, but they consider how much does it cost when you produce 100 MILLION of them.
Considering Blu-ray's design from the very start is as a mass consumer item, would lend evidence to the part being manufactured at a reasonible cost, or they simply would not have so many companies supporting them in the Blu-ray Association.
Blu-ray drives have to manufactured cheaply, if the members of the Blu-ray Association ever stand to make a profit.
Blu-ray drives have to manufactured cheaply, if the members of the Blu-ray Association ever stand to make a profit.
Eventually it will be cheap, that does not mean that the intiall batches will be...
london-boy
13-Oct-2005, 22:37
> "at a decent cost."
Why are you so concerned about that? Let Sony worry about it's costs. I think they would not include a part in a consumer device that they know will most likely be manufactured on a scale of over a hundred million, if it's cost was unreasonible. Sony does not consider the cost for the first 100K, but they consider how much does it cost when you produce 100 MILLION of them.
Considering Blu-ray's design from the very start is as a mass consumer item, would lend evidence to the part being manufactured at a reasonible cost, or they simply would not have so many companies supporting them in the Blu-ray Association.
Blu-ray drives have to manufactured cheaply, if the members of the Blu-ray Association ever stand to make a profit.
Obviously Sony will take losses initially, but it all has to be contained within a certain limit. It's not like they can just spend twice the price of each PS3, even for a short while.
scooby_dooby
13-Oct-2005, 22:45
Bluray is going to be much more expensive than DVD ever was, you need look no further than what's on store shelves right now to see that.
6 months before the PS2 launch you could purchase standalone DVD players for ~300-400 easily in North America.
Now, 6 months before the PS3 launch you can't even BUY a blu-ray player at retail in the united states, and when they do sell, like in japan, they are $2000!!
They'll definately have a hard time producing something that can meet demand, yet still be reliable AND cost effective. It won't be easy.
BUt as someone already said, why do we care? Props to sony for packing a lot of expensive tech intpo the a game console. As long as they can make it happen. As a consumer the only things I would be concerned with are a) reliability b) read speed and c) price.
compres
14-Oct-2005, 04:06
Please stop trolling these boards. You made the exact same comment on this thread last month http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/showthread.php?p=571744#post571744 and got it locked by Sonic.
Thanks.
(BTW Am i the all-seeing-all-knowing or what...!)
Yes you are! Amazing...
BUt as someone already said, why do we care? Props to sony for packing a lot of expensive tech intpo the a game console. As long as they can make it happen. As a consumer the only things I would be concerned with are a) reliability b) read speed and c) price.
And date...
Speaking at X05, a senior European publisher boss told MCV he “wouldn’t be remotely surprised” if PlayStation 3 didn’t arrive here until spring ’07 – and with a price tag as high as £499.
http://www.mcvuk.com/newsitem.php?id=544
I hope not. Xmas 06 surely is late enough?
Hopefully we'll get some answers later this month (or is that PS3 show next month?).
Bluray is going to be much more expensive than DVD ever was, you need look no further than what's on store shelves right now to see that.
6 months before the PS2 launch you could purchase standalone DVD players for ~300-400 easily in North America.
Now, 6 months before the PS3 launch you can't even BUY a blu-ray player at retail in the united states, and when they do sell, like in japan, they are $2000!!
They'll definately have a hard time producing something that can meet demand, yet still be reliable AND cost effective. It won't be easy.
BUt as someone already said, why do we care? Props to sony for packing a lot of expensive tech intpo the a game console. As long as they can make it happen. As a consumer the only things I would be concerned with are a) reliability b) read speed and c) price.
the price for the one has nothing to do with the price of the other.
if sony starts producing millions of BD drives, (including ps3, home and other equipment) costs will be divided and wont be much more then regular dvd drive costs.
R&D is already spent. lazerheads cost wont be that much different compared to regular red lazerheads. manufectoring the rest is almost same cost)
mckmas8808
14-Oct-2005, 13:42
I hope not. Xmas 06 surely is late enough?
Hopefully we'll get some answers later this month (or is that PS3 show next month?).
I surely doubt the PS3 will be released in EU in 2007. And the show is this month. About 9 more days.:grin:
Powderkeg
14-Oct-2005, 14:11
And date...
I hope not. Xmas 06 surely is late enough?
Hopefully we'll get some answers later this month (or is that PS3 show next month?).
I would almost be willing to bet money that the PS3 launch will follow the same timetable as the PS2.
Japan = March
North America = October
Europe = October
drpepper
14-Oct-2005, 14:35
I would almost be willing to bet money that the PS3 launch will follow the same timetable as the PS2.
Japan = March
North America = October
Europe = October
I second Powderkeg's guess. At least it seems more realistic that way.
london-boy
14-Oct-2005, 14:36
I WANT ONE! NOW! Come on Sony, my bday is in March! Just release the damn thing, even just 5 a week per region! I'll work my magic and get my hands on one. :lol:
Did they fix the yield issues on the lasers for bluray ? last i heard from both camps that was the major problem.
Then lets not forget that not only do u have a bluray drive but then u need the red laser for dvd compatibility .
I have yet to see any proof that sony can a) make enough bluray drives for ps3 during 2007 and b) Can make them cheap enough to put into a 400$ console and c) have a small defect ratio on these units .
As for ms and thier advertising , i doubt they need to have just xbox 360 adds . THey will most likely start showing adds of thier games starting around halloween here in the states . Figure thats less than a month before launch and they want gamers to start seeing the games that will come out on it . But other than that the news we are getting in retail is that any store that took preorders is getting anywhere from 1/2 to 1/4th the units they preordered . There are some gamestops that have 300 reserves on the system (one new york store)
My store which is a small store in bergen country new jersey has bout 72 last time i counted. We are getting 10-15 units and 1 of those is core . Unless ms is able to get more units out in time
I would almost be willing to bet money that the PS3 launch will follow the same timetable as the PS2.
Japan = March
North America = October
Europe = October
Yup Ican see that and i can also see
October
N.A / Europe xbox 360 price drop 350$ premium 250$ core Japan 300$ premium .
scooby_dooby
14-Oct-2005, 20:10
I would almost be willing to bet money that the PS3 launch will follow the same timetable as the PS2.
Japan = March
North America = October
Europe = October
I'd be willing to bet hard money that it does not launch EARLIER than those dates.
However, I would not be completely surprised to see the whole thing pushed back.
NavNucST3
15-Oct-2005, 02:35
Quick question...
Is Sony actually making the drives, because I thought they got out of the optical drive business. I remember something on cdfreaks a long time ago, saying they were rebranding lite-on/pioneer drives for their current cdr/dvdr drives.
EDIT: Went to cdfreaks to take a look at some stuff, and the Sony dru-810a, is apparently a BenQ. So if Sony follows suit with BD-ROMS like they have for their current optical drives, they may be at the whim of MFRs. like BenQ, who as mentioned in another thread MIGHT have a delay due to bd-rom+ or whatever they are/were having an issue with.
Shifty Geezer
15-Oct-2005, 09:59
EDIT: Went to cdfreaks to take a look at some stuff, and the Sony dru-810a, is apparently a BenQ. So if Sony follows suit with BD-ROMS like they have for their current optical drives, they may be at the whim of MFRs. like BenQ, who as mentioned in another thread MIGHT have a delay due to bd-rom+ or whatever they are/were having an issue with.Sony do make the blue laser diodes though AFAIK, and I imagine thats the key limiting factor.
NavNucST3
15-Oct-2005, 18:00
Sony do make the blue laser diodes though AFAIK, and I imagine thats the key limiting factor.
Hmm, I didn't think they made any of the components, hence the reason for outsourcing, if you come across something though Shifty, could you post a link or PM me, thanks.
I also wonder why we haven't heard any other mfr. mention any issues with BD, other than BenQ.
Powderkeg
15-Oct-2005, 18:47
Yup Ican see that and i can also see
October
N.A / Europe xbox 360 price drop 350$ premium 250$ core Japan 300$ premium .
I've said it before, it would be cheaper for MS to bundle 2 games with the system for the same price than it would be to drop the price by $50.
So, let's say you could get a PS3 for $400, or a 360 premium bundled with 2 games for the same price.
scooby_dooby
15-Oct-2005, 18:57
Except that MS has already confirmed yearly price cuts.
Joe DeFuria
15-Oct-2005, 19:03
Except that MS has already confirmed yearly price cuts.
Actually, MS hasn't. IIRC MS has stated that they will have continuous / yearly cost reductions, which has been improperly reported as price reductions. That being said, price reductions should indeed occur on some regular basis...just as they always do for every console.
london-boy
15-Oct-2005, 19:04
I've said it before, it would be cheaper for MS to bundle 2 games with the system for the same price than it would be to drop the price by $50.
So, let's say you could get a PS3 for $400, or a 360 premium bundled with 2 games for the same price.
still fourhundredbloodydollars dammit!
*broke*
Shifty Geezer
15-Oct-2005, 19:42
Hmm, I didn't think they made any of the components, hence the reason for outsourcing, if you come across something though Shifty, could you post a link or PM me, thanks.After a couple of minutes Googling
Sony on blue laser diodes
Speakers include Michiro Chiba from Sony's laser diode manufacturing division. With a monthly manufacturing output exceeding 20 million units, Sony is one of the world's biggest laser diode producers, and Chiba will give CS-MAX delegates a rare insight into the Japanese company's high-efficiency production processes and future plans to make GaN-based blue emitters in high-volumes.
http://www.compoundsemiconductor.net/articles/news/8/9/18/1
I've said it before, it would be cheaper for MS to bundle 2 games with the system for the same price than it would be to drop the price by $50.
So, let's say you could get a PS3 for $400, or a 360 premium bundled with 2 games for the same price.
But thats not the whole picture. If ps3 games are 50-60$ then it would cost you 500-520$ for the p3 vs 400$ for the xbox 360. That is a 100-120$ less .
Then what do you save games on with the ps3 ? A memory card or another media type , factor in 20$ and your at 520-540$ huge price diffrence right there for 2 games and the system .
Or the core system . 300$ with 2 games + 1 memory card for 20$ and your at 320$ vs 520-540$ for the ps3 .
Either way you cut it the xbox 360 will be the better deal and that core system will look like a very good value for someone who wold normaly buy a console at the 200-300$ price point
Powderkeg
15-Oct-2005, 21:26
That's the other reason why a bundle is more attractive than a price cut for MS.
They could bundle is a couple of games and it probably wouldn't cost them more than $20 or so to do it. Cutting the price by $50 would cost them an additional $30 per unit compared to a game bundle.
And to the consumer, it looks like they are saving a minimum of $100 by purchasing a 360 instead of the PS3. It's a win-win for MS, because they are minimizing their own costs, while offering the most attractive option to consumers.
mckmas8808
15-Oct-2005, 21:31
But thats not the whole picture. If ps3 games are 50-60$ then it would cost you 500-520$ for the p3 vs 400$ for the xbox 360. That is a 100-120$ less .
Then what do you save games on with the ps3 ? A memory card or another media type , factor in 20$ and your at 520-540$ huge price diffrence right there for 2 games and the system .
Or the core system . 300$ with 2 games + 1 memory card for 20$ and your at 320$ vs 520-540$ for the ps3 .
Either way you cut it the xbox 360 will be the better deal and that core system will look like a very good value for someone who wold normaly buy a console at the 200-300$ price point
:lol: jvd if you think MS will just throw money away like that then you will be horribly disappointed. MS are in this business to make money and there's no way they will let Sony sell the PS3 at that price and offer the two games in the Xbox 360 at a much cheaper price.
I love the comedy though. I needed a laugh for the day. Thanks.
Powderkeg
15-Oct-2005, 21:36
:lol: jvd if you think MS will just throw money away like that then you will be horribly disappointed. MS are in this business to make money and there's no way they will let Sony sell the PS3 at that price and offer the two games in the Xbox 360 at a much cheaper price.
I love the comedy though. I needed a laugh for the day. Thanks.
He's not saying that the 360 will have a game bundle and a much cheaper price. He is saying this.
360 premium with 2 game bundle = $400
PS3 (Assumed price) = $400
2 games @ $50 each = $100
Memory Card = $20
Total = $520
Or drop the totals by $100 each if it's a $300 PS3 compared to the core 360.
And yes, MS would do that.
I don't see the ps3 launching for less than 400$
If mckmass can't find the time to actually read my post and not troll then that is his choice . I don't think i need to explain things over and over again for sony fan boys to understand .
mckmas8808
15-Oct-2005, 21:55
I don't see the ps3 launching for less than 400$
If mckmass can't find the time to actually read my post and not troll then that is his choice . I don't think i need to explain things over and over again for sony fan boys to understand .
Look guys resulting to calling people trolls when they don't agree with you is really starting to get childish. We are all adults (most of us) here.
I can say that in 2007 when the PS3 starts to use 65nm tech they could bundle GT5, a 128 MB Pro Duo stick,and an eyetoy in the PS3 to compete with that Xbox 360 bundle. Who wouldn't like that?
You can say that .
However its obvious that you don't read threads and say whatever you want as you would know that i didn't claim the game bundle. My first figures where factoring only a 50$ price drop which will come at a year after launch .
I also included numbers with someone clamiing 2 free games instead of a price cut . I also included numbers with no price cut but only 2 platnium choice games which many launch games of decent quality (like kameo) will be a year later .
Its obvious that you didn't take the time to read the thread and only wanted to take a pot shot at my numbers because otherwise you would have seen i covered all 3 major scenarios
Powderkeg
15-Oct-2005, 22:30
Look guys resulting to calling people trolls when they don't agree with you is really starting to get childish. We are all adults (most of us) here.
An adult would read the whole posts, and any previous ones that relate to it, and made sure they understood the point before calling it wrong.
After a year, obviously there will be some reduction in manufacturing costs for MS, so they could afford a price drop or game bundle if they wanted to. Furthermore, they could bundle 2 platinum hits, and both games combined would only cost MS an additional $20 or less, so from MS's point of view a 2 game bundle a year from now would cost them about the same as the system does now.
Since there wouldn't be a significant difference in production costs, they could offer it at the same price as now.
And there is no logical reason not to accept this scenario, since it is precisely what MS has been doing for the past 3 years.
mckmas8808
15-Oct-2005, 23:10
And there is no logical reason not to accept this scenario, since it is precisely what MS has been doing for the past 3 years.
I'm not questioning will it ever happen. I'm questioning at what time frame would they do that. Would they offer the bundle so early? Or are they gonna wait awhile to over such a bundle. I'm thinking they would want to maximize profits that's all.
I'm not questioning will it ever happen. I'm questioning at what time frame would they do that. Would they offer the bundle so early? Or are they gonna wait awhile to over such a bundle. I'm thinking they would want to maximize profits that's all.
As i've said there are many choices they have . I gave the most likely one a 50$ price drop to both units . Esp since we know that the add in remote is a limited time only thing with the premium package (i.e launch units ) that plus a year of production will give them wiggle room for price drops .
I'm also giving sony a bit of leway so to speak as I really doubt they will come in at 400$ as they have a larger tranistor count , more expensive ram and a next gen optical format along with many more inputs and outputs . So i'm assuming it will come in at 400$ . I don't see them droping in at 300$ as i believe they will loose way to much money to offset it with software sales . But if they would then ms would drop the price to be competitive i.e premium at 300$ and core at 200$ . Which i don't think ms can do and i highly doubt sony can go under 400$ .
So we have
1) a price drop and platinum titles a year after launch when most of us agree the ps3 will launch in october / novemember of 2006 in usa and europe.
2) a bundle (which i'm not too sure on) of 1 -2 games and staying at the same price
3) they can do a bundle with the premium system and no bundle with the core. Or mabye 2 games with the premium and 1 game with the core and a slight drop on the core to 250$
4) They stay the same price. However there will be million unit sellers and lets face it kameo and pdz along with other launch titles will be droping in price as budget titles as the newer big holiday games of 2006 start launching . We may even see price drops on gears of wars and other games from the begining of 2006 .
These are the 4 most likely things i see happening . Which i believe 1 being most likely and then 2 .
I don't see why your trying to say there wont be platnium games a year later. I'm going to go out on a limb and say
pdz , kameo , cod , pgr 3 will all be over 1million units sold by next year sept (and i really don't think its going out on a limb) and there will be most likely many more for the launch period like oblivion and other games .
Now i'm sure we will be talking about x mass 2006 titles around then but that doesn't change the fact that there is quality software from the xbox 360s earlier launch that will still be good quality games and low in price for people who just want to game . Just look at it this way . Lets just say that ms does have platnium titles (don't see why they wouldnt) at ps3 launch and both consoles cost the same. However for the price of software u can buy 2 ps2 games at 50$ each that is 100$ or 5 xbox 360 platnium titles at 20$ each. If ps3 games are 60$ then that be 120$ or 6 xbox 360 games .
As you can see there is alot more to system cost than just the system price tag and launching first allows you to put out software and lower the cost of the software before the competition comes onto the scene
Powderkeg
16-Oct-2005, 00:09
I'm not questioning will it ever happen. I'm questioning at what time frame would they do that. Would they offer the bundle so early? Or are they gonna wait awhile to over such a bundle. I'm thinking they would want to maximize profits that's all.
Do you maximize profits by selling fewer console for more money, or by selling more consoles at slightly less profit at first, but with the guarantee of increased game sales revenue over the long term?
If the difference is save $20 now, or make $150 per console in game sales later, I think the answer is obvious. You sell as many systems as you can in the short term, and make the money back in long term game sales.
mckmas8808
16-Oct-2005, 00:11
Do you maximize profits by selling fewer console for more money, or by selling more consoles at slightly less profit at first, but with the guarantee of increased game sales revenue over the long term?
If the difference is save $20 now, or make $150 per console in game sales later, I think the answer is obvious. You sell as many systems as you can in the short term, and make the money back in long term game sales.
Your right.
Do you maximize profits by selling fewer console for more money, or by selling more consoles at slightly less profit at first, but with the guarantee of increased game sales revenue over the long term?
If the difference is save $20 now, or make $150 per console in game sales later, I think the answer is obvious. You sell as many systems as you can in the short term, and make the money back in long term game sales.
Its not worth it powderkeg just don't responed
Only sony will make money on software apparently and only sony can take massive losses on hardware apparently and only sony will sell units apparently .
God forbid ms has a system they made a year 6 months earlier that costs less than the ps3 to make .
That could never happen cause then sony will be in a weaker position . It can't happen , mckmass said it can't and so it cna't .
Bad_Boy
16-Oct-2005, 00:32
...hope you dont mind if i cut in :P ...
not sure if anyone mentioned it, but ign has a article about this topic..
http://insider.ign.com/teasers/658/658660.html
Digital Culture: Rushed to Release
Microsoft feels the crunch as the Xbox 360's release nears.
October 14, 2005 - Is it really worthwhile launching your product worldwide and only satisfying a few of your customers? This is the dilemma facing Microsoft now, which is facing an all-but-guaranteed sell out of the Xbox 360 this Christmas. Yes, a lot of this is because there is rabid demand for the first console of the next generation, but a large part of this comes down to corners being cut so that Microsoft can say, "We did it." Microsoft has loudly proclaimed its near-simultaneous global launch for most of the year, but it seems that it's realizing now that it may have overreached a bit. There's not much on the record from the company regarding its hardware production capacity, and it's refusing to say how many console it will have on day one.
too bad im not a ign insider, anybody wanna share the info? ;)
According to one unnamed publisher source, speaking to UK trade paper MCV last week, Microsoft will have 600,000 Xbox 360s ready to go by the time the big day hits there in the beginning of December, with 200,000 earmarked for Europe's biggest market, the UK.
Now 600,000 may sound like a fair amount, but when you consider that the PSP, which sells for £179 in the UK, sold 185,000 units in just its first week on the market before selling out, it seems clear that there's no way that Microsoft will be able to keep everyone happy.
There are some important consequences to this compacted shipping schedule, not least of which is the quality of the games that are going to be sitting on shelves on day one. Some companies have decided that hitting launch isn't as important as making sure their games are done, such as Ubisoft, which earlier this week decided to hold back Ghost Recon: Advanced Warfighter until next year.
And while Microsoft has been unfaltering in pushing the Xbox 360 on the basis of its raw power, not all developers are going to have their games in that state by launch day - if that's even what they were aiming for. Several launch titles have been developed with current gen consoles in mind and have had their Xbox 360 versions thrown in as an afterthought.
This sloppiness will also be the reason why the second round of games on Xbox 360 will likely be better than the first, or at the very least come closer to showing off the true potential of the hardware.
"[Developers will] be able to get a lot more out of the system next year," Allard said. "That's why games look better year over year. It's primarily because hardware comes in hot and developers use the deficiency of the schedule not just to learn about hardware, but also to cut a couple of corners."
Not surprisingly, Allard is insistent that Microsoft's first-party titles - Kameo: Elements of Power, Project Gotham Racing 3 and the controversial Perfect Dark Zero - will not be rushed and will only be out for launch if they're ready.
"We're hoping all three of the first-party games make day one. We're on a good trajectory with all three of those. Can I guarantee day one? No. What we learned with Halo [2] is you don't ship a game before it's ready."
"[The developments teams are] all incredibly motivated and they're working very, very hard. They know there's a chance that they don't all make day one. They'll all make this holiday though."
So, does any of this actually matter? The lack of enough hardware probably won't be the end of the world. Every major console release is accompanied by stock shortages. It does look like this may go more the way of the PlayStation 2, though, which is good for Microsoft's PR. Nothing sounds better than being able to fire off a press release on day two claiming a national - or global, if you're willing to wait a few weeks - sell out.
f it really does take until the second generation of software for most developers to start scratching at the Xbox 360's throttle, that could be too late, since that puts it around the same time as Sony is going to be ramping up the hype for the PlayStation 3. And Microsoft's Peter Moore, who oversaw the launch of the Dreamcast, hardly needs reminding of what happened the last time a console was pushed ahead to compete with Sony.
Thats about all the juicy stuff .
Ms could have shipped with 2 million units in the usa and still sold out though. THats about how many preorders gamestop / eb toysrus and bestbuy have along with some smaller chains
expletive
16-Oct-2005, 02:57
Thats about all the juicy stuff .
Ms could have shipped with 2 million units in the usa and still sold out though. THats about how many preorders gamestop / eb toysrus and bestbuy have along with some smaller chains
I think IGN took some liberties with that article because those original comments were made by JA in response to developers filling up the DVD9 discs and cutting corners with compression. He later went on to say that developers get better with using the hardware as time goes on but the intial commentary on cutting corners was solely based on the compression and dsic capacity. (IIRC)
I think IGN took some liberties with that article because those original comments were made by JA in response to developers filling up the DVD9 discs and cutting corners with compression. He later went on to say that developers get better with using the hardware as time goes on but the intial commentary on cutting corners was solely based on the compression and dsic capacity. (IIRC) well personaly i believe that all launch games ever expcet for mario 64 were rushed games. The exception is mario 64 as it was confirmed that the n64 was built around the game and they were developed basicly hand in hand and the system was delayed a year
expletive
16-Oct-2005, 14:32
well personaly i believe that all launch games ever expcet for mario 64 were rushed games. The exception is mario 64 as it was confirmed that the n64 was built around the game and they were developed basicly hand in hand and the system was delayed a year
Yes i agree for the most part. The only games that I didnt feel like that about, were the big titles in the DC launch (nfl 2k, SC, sonic). I think its clear that most of the 360 games will suffer either tecnologically or with content (condemned is only 10-15 hours from what ive read). The only one that seems fully 'realized' on launch is kameo, PGR may fall into that category as well as long as they iron out the final remaining framerate issues.
Yes i agree for the most part. The only games that I didnt feel like that about, were the big titles in the DC launch (nfl 2k, SC, sonic).
The Dreamcast launched in Japan in Q4 1998 (with Pen Pen, Godzilla, July, and VF3) and in Europe and the US almost a year later...
So while we are technically talking about launch titles, there is some room for discussion me thinks. ;)
expletive
18-Oct-2005, 01:10
The Dreamcast launched in Japan in Q4 1998 (with Pen Pen, Godzilla, July, and VF3) and in Europe and the US almost a year later...
So while we are technically talking about launch titles, there is some room for discussion me thinks. ;)
Fair point!
well personaly i believe that all launch games ever expcet for mario 64 were rushed games. The exception is mario 64 as it was confirmed that the n64 was built around the game and they were developed basicly hand in hand and the system was delayed a year
and Super Mario World, Pilot Wings & F-Zero (launch game??) on Super Nintendo :D
F-Zero SN is still my favorite racing game of all time.
mckmas8808
19-Oct-2005, 17:29
Worldwide launch maybe looking smaller than first previously thought.
Two key investment banks issued revised guidance for Xbox 360 shipments earlier this week, with Banc of America Securities maintaining its estimate of 1.4 to 1.6 million, while UBS Securities dropped its original estimate of 2.5 million to 1.5 million.
The revised estimates came after IBM (http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=12368#) confirmed that it was ahead of its targets in terms of manufacturing the PowePC-based chips used by the Xbox 360, with the chip maker set to meet Microsoft's requirements for the part in the current quarter.
Despite the positive news from IBM, both Banc of America's Gary Cooper and UBS' Mike Wallace maintain that shipments of the Xbox 360 will be significantly lower than many observers expect - with their conclusions being based on information from retailers and industry insiders.
The two analysts also agree to a large degree on where those units are going to go; Cooper expects that by the end of 2005, there will be 800,000 units in North America, 600,000 in Europe and the remainder will be in Japan, while Wallace also expects 800,000 in North America (350 to 400k of those on the launch day), with 400 to 500k in Europe and 100 to 200k in Japan.
Microsoft itself has repeatedly cautioned the industry that it expects the Xbox 360 to sell out ahead of Christmas, but has moved to assure retailers that there will be a steady supply of new units turning up in the weeks and months after launch.
Keep in mind that these are analysts. And we all know the key word in their title.:wink:
Link --> http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=12368
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