MS Xbox is gaining momentum...unstoppable... [Archive]

30-Sep-2002, 16:31

First THIS (http://www.xbox.com/news/0209/rarepressrelease.htm).

Then the great XO2 Event (http://xbox.ign.com/articles/372/372013p1.html).

Then Sony talks CELL (http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=2552).

Then Nvidia CEO talks Xbox2 (http://www.theinquirer.net/Default.aspx?article=5555).

Now talks about a Capcom buyout (http://www.xboxgamers.com/newspro/fullnews.cgi?newsid1033171136,46666,) and MGS3 XCLUSIVE (http://www.computerandvideogames.com/front_index.php).

MS wants to support promising new setups (http://www.digitimes.com/NewsShow/Article1.asp?datePublish=2002/09/30&pages=04&seq=19)

Now putting all these points into context, we can see that MS is very very very aggressive. Sony is sitting back, basking in their 40m PS2 light, not knowing what is gonna hit them soon.

Sony, as usual, is going for their brute force 'crazy' hardware architecture, which could always be delayed.
Xbox2 will likely to use DX10 and NV5A(?) and AMD/nForce and all.
While it may or may not match up against the PS3 this time, you can be assure the familiarity of mature DX API will allow developers to get great results faster(vs PS3). Nvidia will teach IBM something about graphics.

PS3 will likely be the end of Sony dominance, no?
:oops:

EDIT: The C&VG needs you to be registered.

zurich

30-Sep-2002, 17:03

Whoa there, calm down boy.

Just because MS is buying/throwing money around, doesn't mean consumers are ;)

And I :roll: at the MGS3 rumour. Even if its true I doubt it'll get published in Japan. MS is going to have to buy Enix & Square outright to crack that market (only reason why Sony is here is because they jumped ship).

I really do have to laud MS's efforts in this market. It just somewhat upsets me that despite all their work, some games still turnout to be complete duds, ie: Dead To Rights. I can only hope that this doesnt discourage the suits too much, because they had the right intentions :oops:

Ed Fries is still a very, very bright man. I trust he'll do the right thing (as Ballmer lets him).

zurich

Johnny Awesome

30-Sep-2002, 17:13

We see eye to eye, you and I. :)

Sony is going to win this battle in what will be at least an 8 year struggle, but I still feel that Microsoft is going to win the war. They just have too many resources at their disposal. Sony has enlisted IBM and Toshiba though, so the fight is going to be a good one, but only if IBM is a full-fledged partner of the PS3. Otherwise, Sony doesn't have the financial muscle to compete against Microsoft.

There is a dangerous assumption from Sony fans: that money can't buy talent and "that magic special something" that great games have, but this is a myth. Microsoft is about to show that persistence and money can result in great games.

In the first year from launch through the summer, Microsoft launched about 12 first party titles. Of these, Halo and Project Gotham were successful, and Rallisport and Amped showed some potential for future success. If one in six games that Microsoft publishes turn into hits, then Microsoft is in amazing shape.

This Fall I'd probably pick Blinx and Quantum Redshift as series with potential that will only sell moderately well, whereas MechAssault will be a success. Whacked! and MS Sports will probably do fairly poorly. Brute Force is being delayed to make it that number two success that MS needs, but it's hard to say if it will turn out well.

Going forward, MS has invested heavily in Oddworld, Psychonauts, Rareware, Midtown Madness, Crimson Skies, Halo 2, PGR 2, and so on. They'll be fine in the long run.

The doom and gloom Xbox crowd is mistaken if they think that MS, which has created two winning franchises in 9 months on Xbox is going to abandon the market. It won't happen. Wait until you see the software attach rate numbers this holiday on Xbox. Through the roof. :)

30-Sep-2002, 17:15

zurich

30-Sep-2002, 17:28

The thing that Xbox fans/owners have to fear most, isn't Sony or Nintendo, but rather the Microsoft suits (namely Steve Ballmer sp?, MS CEO).

Non-gamer, bottom-figure, profit-driven guys like him are going to look at the expense report, and make an executive decision that would ultimately f*ck everything the Good Guys, like Ed Fries, had been working towards.

Not to say that he'd axe the Xbox, but instead refocus the whole project to make it 'profitable', ie: the $499 TiVo-Xbox-w/Windows XP stupid thing.

If you read 'Opening the Xbox', right from the beginning Gates and Ballmer were quaking in their boots that MS would be investing so much money into something that didn't come with the Windows/MS Office safety net attached.

The tend at MS seems to be 'Integrated For Success', ie: IE4->Win98, Messanger->XP, WMP8->XP, etc. I wouldnt be surprised to see MS try and make a logical leap from profitable, cashcow MS OS/business apps to Xbox in order to boost sales. And if they did, that'd be bad, as it'd loose face amongst gamers.

zurich

30-Sep-2002, 17:38

Kutaragi isnt any much better. :o
Xbox is already using windows stuffs. No surprise if Xbox2 has WinXP2, Pallandium, .Net and so forth. PS3 is not gonna be just a console anymore too. :oops:

MS might not always finish top(they usually do), but you can count on them to still finish a strong second, soon or later. :oops:

MrSingh

30-Sep-2002, 17:48

Feel free to add/remove from that list of mine.

Please add Nuon and Indrema to that list....

Vince

30-Sep-2002, 18:28

Wow, this thread is just a collection of the best and brightest, huh? :roll: Why does it not surprise me that Johnney's talking out his ass again?

I could reply point by point, but to what end. This threads a joke.

Microsoft on a roll? Last time I checked, it was 40 to 5 and the gaps widning. Wake me up when MS sells out their original, launch, shipment in japan, ok?

And I at the MGS3 rumour

Hehehehe

Grall

30-Sep-2002, 18:38

Feel free to add/remove from that list of mine.

Please add Nuon and Indrema to that list....

Those were hardly killed by M$.

They were either botched from the start (Nuon) or total pipe-dreams (Indrema). I do think Microsoft is a front for world-domination and that Bill Gates is evil incarnate, but they're not behind EVERY crashed hardware launch ever.

;)

*G*

30-Sep-2002, 18:56

Grall, i think MrSingh is joking here.

Vince, i think this thread is pretty valid. :oops:

Teasy

30-Sep-2002, 19:40

Wow, this thread is just a collection of the best and brightest, huh? Why does it not surprise me that Johnney's talking out his ass again?

Hehe, I'll take a guess, because he does it consistently? Talk about a pom pom waver.

As for the thread itself, I think there are far to many assumptions here and the title is.. well :roll:

Grall

30-Sep-2002, 19:46

Chap:

So am I. :)

*G*

zurich

30-Sep-2002, 20:09

bah, i think my posts are valid.

Tagrineth

30-Sep-2002, 20:15

Now, anyone care to tell me what competitive rivals had been bulldozed or overtaken by the sheer might of MS?

IIRC, off teh back of my mind:

Netscape
RealPlayerG2
Winamp3
IBM home OS
Apple Mac
that old Word Processor i cant recall teh name
all other Office Suites

Feel free to add/remove from that list of mine. :oops:

Netscape's making a "return" with AOhelL... and I know a few people who do use it instead of MSIE on Windows.

Even one of my friends who tested and found conclusively that Windows Media Player is more efficient than WinAMP still uses WinAMP. :P

And I use StarOffice™ myself :)

Sonic

30-Sep-2002, 20:44

Truth be told Win Amp 3 is a major POS. It's too slow and clunky for my tastes, but Windows Media Pkayer is far worse. I will stick with Win amp 2.8, the version that's good for me.

And I usually use Zoom Player for my media needs, it's a program that doesn't ake up much memory space, and it's harldy a resouce hog. Plus it's overall faster than WMP.

Regarding Microsoft and the Xbox, money does talk. Sony knows this better than anyone else, but people who think Sony can't compete with MS have got to be kidding me. If this turns into a Microsoft vs. Sony hardware war in the coming years then I am fairly confident when I say that Sony will win. I just don't see how MS will pull this one off, especially since allthe money that will be thrown around will inevitably be lost. You can't just throw money into the industry and expect to make it back, it takes time and lots of high selling games. Microsoft can always be a success in North America, but I doubt it will ever be more successful than Sony is in any market with the systems. And it has been said before, IBM is looking very heavily in building a worldwide network that goes into the homes of millions. Sony wants this too and that's why they are partners with IBM regarding the CELL technology. Microsoft wants such a network too, but I don't really know if they can compete with IBM who has alot more experience and expertise in the field.

Then again, I also believe IBM will be making a hell of alot more money that MS will in the next 5 years.

Magnum PI

30-Sep-2002, 20:53

i use:

*winamp

very efficient ! not like the overbloated windows media player
(i use it with the mad winamp plugin for MP3)

* openoffice

because it's free and it also runs under linux.

* mozilla

because tabbed browsing rules !
because they respect internet standards.
it also run under linux.

* a logitech mouse

i just prefer their mices :)

at home i use windows 2000 because it's better for gaming.
i use linux too.

at my work i use linux with openoffice and mozilla.

Johnny Awesome

30-Sep-2002, 21:36

I'm not sure why Vince has to be so insulting all the time, but I'm sure I'm not alone in noticing it. I don't really have any interest in debating these matters with him anyway, as he seems to believe the console war is a 9 month battle.

Sonic, IBM is formidable and I think they could team up with Sony to pose a serious threat to MS, but it would still be a very good fight. Let's not be naive here.

Zurich

I don't think the "suits" at MS are going to intervene in the Xbox project if they meet their 9 million target by June 2003. I remember when everyone laughed at Window 3.1 and Pocket PC (I was one of them, a big Amiga supporter back in the early 90s), but who's laughing now?

Microsoft is serious about getting into the home entertainment business. They bought Rare, which is a huge signal that they are thinking long-term.

Just because Sony has a 35 to 5 million unit advantage after 9 months, doesn't mean that MS won't be successful at selling 30+ million Xbox units by 2005. I know a boat load of PS2 owners that are either getting an Xbox at $199 or later at $149.

Only 25% of the market has decided which console they want. It's still pretty wide open.

Blade

30-Sep-2002, 23:13

While I agree that MS is taking some steps to strengthen their software lineup (Rare, anyone?) it doesn't mean they're going to dominate. Half of the links you posted there were rumors, some of which have been confirmed to be fake.

pcostabel

30-Sep-2002, 23:56

I don't think the "suits" at MS are going to intervene in the Xbox project if they meet their 9 million target by June 2003. I remember when everyone laughed at Window 3.1 and Pocket PC (I was one of them, a big Amiga supporter back in the early 90s), but who's laughing now?

You cannot compare the two. The software industry is all about content.
Windows is successfull because of the huge software library.
But in the console market, Sony has the most content. I'm not talking
just about games: they also have movies and music. M$ has very little compelling content that can help them sell an entertainment system.
What was the last M$ movie you saw?

Microsoft is serious about getting into the home entertainment business. They bought Rare, which is a huge signal that they are thinking long-term.

Just because Sony has a 35 to 5 million unit advantage after 9 months, doesn't mean that MS won't be successful at selling 30+ million Xbox units by 2005. I know a boat load of PS2 owners that are either getting an Xbox at $199 or later at $149.

That's the problem. Xbox appeals to hard core gamers, those that are willing to buy two or more systems. Most people only buy one, and if M$
cannot convince single-system buyers to go for the Xbox, they will never
survie, nuch less beat Sony.

Only 25% of the market has decided which console they want. It's still pretty wide open.

Unfortunately for M$, that 25% is made of early adopter, that are more likely to buy multiple systems. The remaining 75% will only buy one.
Guess which one?

CaptainHowdy

01-Oct-2002, 00:59

the Capcom rumor was shot down this morning by....capcom..
and the MGS3 rumor is just wishful thinking.

Vince

01-Oct-2002, 02:30

Teasy: Hehehe - Got a smile outta me!!

I'm not sure why Vince has to be so insulting all the time, but I'm sure I'm not alone in noticing it.

Because I'm sick of your useless rhetoric. I'm only insulting when you post this BS. Do you ever read the shit you write?

I don't really have any interest in debating these matters with him anyway, as he seems to believe the console war is a 9 month battle.

Beleive me, I've been thinking of this since GDC 2002, well before you knew anything (Which I told you).

The console war is no longer a console war, it's .Net vs OGSA - it'd the future shape of the living room and internet.

As stated by PCO, Sony dominates the front-end production houses (Cinema, Music, TV) and the back-end appliences (PSx, VAIO, Trinitron, Walkmen, DVD, BlueRay, need I go on?). All they need to do is connect them with the help of IBM and Toshiba - whose supplying the core hardware microarchitecture, the OS, the GRID standards.

Microsoft dominates the middle turf (Windows, .NET, MSN) and will only supply the middle to 3rd parties for implimentation and is attempting to gain a back-end with XBox - which isn't working.

Ok, explain to me how Sony's stumbling? They have all the pieces to seemlessly distribute digital media, and are now connecting them.

MS has the connection standards, but no hardware and no front-end to sell.

And explain to me how MS can leverage ANYTHING in the console market. It's a closed architecture, Windows means nothing.

Sony has the potential to sieze the market by the balls. Buy a Sony TV with Cell/OS that can flawlessly interact with your Cell/OS powered PDA or VAIO, or your Cell/OS powered PS3 which allows you to get any of Sony's thousands upon thousands of hours of digitized films dating back to the '60s (I dream of Jeanie!). Or some Sony Music which can be sent to your Cell/OS powered Walkmen or Sony/Aiwa Audio products. Buy one Sony product, and you'll end up buying another 5.

How is Microsoft going to counteract this? What can MS offer me? hypothetically better graphics? HA! We're past that. TiVo? Um, no. An integrated Harddrive? hehe

Nobody gives a damn about graphics, we're well into a point of diminishing returns with respect to current TV limitations, and even with HDTV, the average consumer won't notice a diffrence between PS3 and XBX2.

Microsoft has what advantage? Rare? Give me a break, their one development house thats been failing as of late. Buying up as many development houses as they please isn't going to change the fact that people hate XBox. Sony's still outselling it >2X in the US, and the gaps widening.

How XBox2 is going to rectify these deficiencies is beyond me.

I know a boat load of PS2 owners that are either getting an Xbox at $199 or later at $149.

And they'll continue to buy Sony Games, and Products. Their are over 30M unique PS2 owners (That own just PS2), I doubt their are 1M unique XBox owners... way to dominate.

Kolgar

01-Oct-2002, 03:30

Wow, Vince, interesting reply. I've often wondered how a Sony/Microsoft standoff would shake out, and your analysis seems to make sense. Funny, I hadn't given Sony that much of a chance, but as I said, your argument is compelling...

Whatever happens, it's gonna be more interesting and bloody than any "console war" we've ever seen!

Kolgar

Vince

01-Oct-2002, 03:44

Whatever happens, it's gonna be more interesting and bloody than any "console war" we've ever seen!

Ohh yeah; if you supply the lawnchairs, I'll supply the drinks :)

Grall

01-Oct-2002, 03:48

Vince, I say like Kolgar; interesting points you make.

HOWEVER...(hehe)...! I don't believe they'll execute anywhere as flawlessly as this.

A: just because things integrate with each other doesn't mean instant commercial success. The more peripherals something needs to fulfil its potential (or worse yet: even work to begin with), the less software support will be available for it, and the less support, the less consumers will be enticed to buy it as well. The less consumers buy it, the less incitement for soft-co:s to support it, thus completing the vicious circle... Hence reason for failed SegaCD amongst other things. :)

B: Sony COULD do all these things you propose, sure. But do you really think they WILL? It would require an awesome commitment from the company as a whole, from hardware division, software, marketing, media, everything... LOTS of co-ordination will be needed (on a larger scale than almost anything gone before it) and most likely many cone-haired bosses on many different levels having their say. You think they all have the guts to go for a scheme like this? As for me, I'm very doubtful. There's SO many ways they could screw something like this up and simply lose oodles of money when it all blows up in their faces. I expect the PS3 to play DVD movies and connect to the internet for online play and that's it. PERIOD. Heheh. :) (Oh alright then, maybe it'll run Linux too just like the PS2. Maybe it'll even run Linux as the resident firmware OS, who knows.)

Let's wait a few years and see who's right in the end. :)

*G*

Vince

01-Oct-2002, 04:39

The more peripherals something needs to fulfil its potential (or worse yet: even work to begin with), the less software support will be available for it, and the less support, the less consumers will be enticed to buy it as well.

You don't Need them for it to work, but if your going to buy theese products, why not buy ones that work together? I'm going to buy a TV, get a Sony HDTV that has Cell/OS, need a digital camera - Sony with Cell/OS and send the images anywhere.

See my point, it's not 'accesories' that are necessary, but rather help entice you to making all the products you're going to buy anyway Sony. Go ahead, buy a Zenith TV, it just won't be compatable with Cell/OS network.

B: Sony COULD do all these things you propose, sure. But do you really think they WILL? It would require an awesome commitment from the company as a whole, from hardware division, software, marketing, media, everything... LOTS of co-ordination will be needed (on a larger scale than almost anything gone before it) and most likely many cone-haired bosses on many different levels having their say.

True, but I take Sony Groups realignment around their media groups as an indication, aswell as the power given to SCEI and Kutaragi.

As well as the formation of MovieFly an alliance between MGM/Paramount/Sony/Universal/Warner Bros to deliver Video on Demand.

And when the broadband future finally arrives, Sony may have a leg up on competitors in both PCs and consumer gadgets, not least because it makes them all, along with the digital "content" that drives their sales. When it comes to linking all these worlds, with a PC like the Vaio as a hub, the rest of the computer world is "catching up" to what Sony is doing, says Will Poole, Microsoft Corp.'s vice-president for digital media. "They've gotten this concept ahead of the others," he adds

Substitute/Interchange PSx for Vaio. Now time for sleepy...

EDIT: Mark, their nothing you posted that I didn't cover somewhere with some dynamic hinking on your part. I'm going to bed, think it over yourself. Maybe even do some research into Sony's realignment/new CEO (Aibo IIRC) and his intentions.

Mark Cicero

01-Oct-2002, 04:40

I think Vince has missed a couple of other rather blatent assumptions Grall.

The console war is no longer a console war, it's .Net vs OGSA - it'd the future shape of the living room and internet.

Last time I checked e-commerce didn't really occur from the living room.

As stated by PCO, Sony dominates the front-end production houses (Cinema, Music, TV) and the back-end appliences (PSx, VAIO, Trinitron, Walkmen, DVD, BlueRay, need I go on?). All they need to do is connect them with the help of IBM and Toshiba - whose supplying the core hardware microarchitecture, the OS, the GRID standards.

This of course is contingent on a few factors. One, that they all decide to get along together. Two, if said getting along occurs, that they somehow get past Congressional inquiries which are a bit easier to do with multiple industries trying to create a monopoly rather than just one company (allegedly) trying to do it. Third, that IBM is going to help them connect. But that gets to my next point. Thanks to xbox live, Microsof is taking a definite interest in doing what individual states (esp. Engler in Michigan) are having a hard time selling: universal broadband connections. If MS decides to underwrite the whole project (which given the lack of at least a few layers of beurocracy will probably make it far more efficient than any public undertaking) then they, not IBM or Sony or Toshiba, will control how this great media conglomeration/congruence will operate.

Microsoft dominates the middle turf (Windows, .NET, MSN) and will only supply the middle to 3rd parties for implimentation and is attempting to gain a back-end with XBox - which isn't working.

How is it not working? MS's projections for December are 9 million. They are not, repeat NOT, expecting to take over the market in one fell swoop. This round is to establish that it isn't a joke. Next round is to scare the $hit out of sony, the third round will decide the winner or at least will provide something to keep these forums alive. Xbox3/PS4 is where the finally war in the valley of armageddon will occur (provided of course that Nintendo somehow or other doesn't manage to get UN sanction for suppling all of our gaming/entertainment/communication needs).

Ok, explain to me how Sony's stumbling? They have all the pieces to seemlessly distribute digital media, and are now connecting them.
MS has the connection standards, but no hardware and no front-end to sell.

This is assuming that they indeed wish to enter the digital entertainment market. The post-napster world has changed the way the industry has, and will, look at things. They weren't ready before now and I'd be willing to bet they arent' going to move into the digital realm until they are "certain" they can solve the essential problem of copying.

And explain to me how MS can leverage ANYTHING in the console market. It's a closed architecture, Windows means nothing.

Umm now I could be wrong (and that's admission not sarcasm) but aren't all of the current consoles closed architecture? And again, there's the assumption that Xbox2 = some form of windows. If you read The Making of the Xbox people, especially Steve Balmer, freaked out when they were told it wouldn't run windows.

Sony has the potential to sieze the market by the balls. Buy a Sony TV with Cell/OS that can flawlessly interact with your Cell/OS powered PDA or VAIO, or your Cell/OS powered PS3 which allows you to get any of Sony's thousands upon thousands of hours of digitized films dating back to the '60s (I dream of Jeanie!). Or some Sony Music which can be sent to your Cell/OS powered Walkmen or Sony/Aiwa Audio products. Buy one Sony product, and you'll end up buying another 5.

This is assuming, as Grall pointed out, that people will by peripherals. At least if MS takes over it will all be in one huge ass box beside the tv if in the home at all.

So yeah Vince's post is food for thought but in the end acid-reflux causing heartburn is a b!tch.

Sonic

01-Oct-2002, 05:06

Why couldn't Sony pull it off? They've got a much better chance than MS does, and just as much as every ambition. It's obvious that they are going to be competing with a format that's able to connect households with a network all across the world. It just isn't about a console to play games on any more. Sony and MS both want more than that, that will still be the main focus, but they see advantages of making profit in other ways by making use of the machine for other uses. Sony has all the pieces of putting it together, now all they need to do is put them in the right places and make sure the foundation is stable. MS has a lot of the pieces and is somewhat on its way to acqiring more of the pieces, but its overall partners are not in high numbers like Sony's are.

It will be interesting, but don't forget that Sony might just have to let IBM have control of the network. Afterall, this is what IBM is really striving for.

marconelly!

01-Oct-2002, 05:07

then they, not IBM or Sony or Toshiba, will control how this great media conglomeration/congruence will operate.

With their closed network that has no visible advantages over the already available open internet? Without content providers to back them up (I don't see them merging with film or TV industry anytime soon). I don't think so. If anything, what Sony/IBM are trying to do is much more open and visionary than what I see coming from Microsoft.

This is assuming, as Grall pointed out, that people will by peripherals. At least if MS takes over it will all be in one huge ass box beside the tv if in the home at all.

How can it be one box if you want to have digital camcorder, digital photocamera, PDA, etc, etc. Peripherials will be there as long as they don't make an universal pocketable device that does everything, is connected with evertything, and can project images into 3D space or even better into your visual cortex :P

Grall

01-Oct-2002, 05:51

Vince:

"You don't Need them for it to work, but if your going to buy theese products, why not buy ones that work together?"

I think you're assuming everyone's a techno-geek. Provided you as Joe Consumer (or Jane for that matter) even understand the concept of this Cell/OS thing you're trumpeting and the (percieved) benefits it might offer, you might just as well end up buying some other brand simply because you think Sony's TV/mobile phone/whatever LOOKS UGLY. So you might not be able to communicate with your PS3 through them, at least it matches your furniture/glasses/whatever, something most people rate far higher than gadgetry interconnectivity! (Yes, strange as it may seem to you and me, but this is how actual people think, LOL!)

Then there's price to be considered too of course, Sony's never the cheapest out there.

I'm going to buy a TV, get a Sony HDTV that has Cell/OS, need a digital camera - Sony with Cell/OS and send the images anywhere.

"Go ahead, buy a Zenith TV"

Uh, Zenith isn't available in Euro Disneyland. :)

"True, but I take Sony Groups realignment around their media groups as an indication, aswell as the power given to SCEI and Kutaragi."

I still say it's way too early. Anything introduced simply because it's neat and handy without there being any real need or demand for it has an uncanny way of blowing up in the most spectacular manner possible. Witness: the imminent implosion of most Euro 3G telecom operators... ;)

"As well as the formation of MovieFly an alliance between MGM/Paramount/Sony/Universal/Warner Bros to deliver Video on Demand."

Is this something consumers are even interested in? Why would you pay every time you want to watch a movie when you can just get the DVD and pay once AND get a bunch of extra features AND a nice box to display on your shelf? This is the exact reason that divx scheme crash-landed you know. People don't want to pay for intangibles.

"When it comes to linking all these worlds, with a PC like the Vaio as a hub, the rest of the computer world is "catching up" to what Sony is doing"

Everybody else won't be 'catching up' to Sony if their scheme relies on a Vaio as the central hub. Hell, Vaios aren't even on sale in Sweden. NEVER seen one over on these shores. Scheme for world domination relies on availability on all markets you know... ;) Otherwise you leave door open for arch-nemesis Bill Gates and henchmen.

Having a PS3 as a central hub seems only marginally better. It's a bit of a stretch for a gaming console to fulfil that role (they ARE seen as toys you know by the general public), and gaming consoles disguised as set-top boxes or such has also flopped (usually never even been brought to market). The PC is seen as the natural hub of such things simply because it's easily recognized as a computer. Children's toys (or in case of the Playstation; young mens' toys) controlled by joypads can't fill those shoes.

I don't foresee a change in that attitude in the next few years. We're not ready for that total integration yet. Maybe the around PS4 or 5 we will be...

*G*

JF_Aidan_Pryde

01-Oct-2002, 06:27

Sony tried to do the connectivity thing with the Memory Stick and it sure worked for me.

*Self confessed VAIO + Cyber-Shot onwer* :D\

I mean, with that memory stick slot starring at me, am I *seriously* going to considering buying something else? The DSC-P5 is truely a blast.

bryanb

01-Oct-2002, 07:03

I don't think the "suits" at MS are going to intervene in the Xbox project if they meet their 9 million target by June 2003. I remember when everyone laughed at Window 3.1 and Pocket PC (I was one of them, a big Amiga supporter back in the early 90s), but who's laughing now?

There are no suits at Microsoft who have the power or inclination to stop the massive capital hemorage that is the Xbox. The only suits that matter on this issue are Gates and Ballmer. These are the guys that placed the bet on the Xbox. These are two of the most ego driven corporate leaders ever. They aren't about to admit failure. Business is a game that these guys take very personally.

But the loss of face that Gates and Ballmer would incur from a straight out flop of the Xbox, such as is ocurring in Japan and partially in the EU, doesn't compare to the loss of face that Microsoft would incur in the consumer electronics market. Microsoft wants access to the family room and the Xbox is their biggest salvo yet into that market. As a business with stagnating profit margins in all of its existing markets, Microsoft badly needs the Xbox to succeed. They company is valued more than GE and IBM combined. Stockholders are soon going to start looking for badholders now that 20% quarter growth at MS is over.

There was a reason why they code named the Xbox - "Project Midway".

Glonk

01-Oct-2002, 07:32

While Vince's theories are interesting none the less, I don't think he's very much grounded in reality.

Most of the points have already been addressed here, but I do think that it will be an interesting battle. But in the end I don't think Sony stands a chance against MS.

MS has more money (which is kinda stating the obvious), MS can use this money to position itself better. That's why it's acquiring all these talented developers as first party. Sony's getting the idea, getting TakeTwo to sign exclusively for PS2 and the like, but they don't have that kind of money to throw around.

Sony also pissed off a lot of developers with the PS2. Development costs and times are FAR higher than they could have been, and it's kinda put Sony at a disadvantage. One of the reasons the PSX was so popular was how easy it was to get a game on it. The PS2 was the opposite.

This whole talk about Cell worries me, for a couple reasons. First, the common perception these days on the internet is that it involves distributed computing over the internet. I don't think that's true at all (in fact hasn't it been flat out denied?). But by the same token, the PS2 fanboys are standing behind Cell was a computational powerhouse when it's totally unproven, and actually looks to be nothing more than CMP.

Hardware wise, I don't think Sony+Toshiba+IBM will be able to compete with Intel/AMD+Nvidia. That's all up for debate, though. And if the Xbox2 is as easy to develop for as Xbox1, and MS still has deep pockets, and they launch at the same time as the PS3 -- where's Sony's advantages gone?

Think about it.

Crazyace

01-Oct-2002, 07:58

zurich

01-Oct-2002, 08:00

zidane1strife

01-Oct-2002, 13:49

I just hope Ms doesnt make xbox 2 or 3 into a minipc by incorporating win compatibility... cause thatd be enough to push pc distributors, manufacturers, software dev.s, who are already feeling threatened by Ms, go over the edge a.k.a get very pissed off.... and could make them do some crazy things like a switch to linux across the whole pc industry with software dev.s providing both win and linux compatibility, until an eventual switch over to linux...

Ms might have alot of power with their monopoly of the operating system market, but if they make a big move that threatens alot of people it could consolidate the market into going against them... organizing a fellowship, and throwing the ring into the fires of mount....

Johnny Awesome

01-Oct-2002, 15:53

Vince

Your argument boils down to ignoring all of MS/NVidia/AMD/Intel advantages and exagerating those of Sony/IBM/Toshiba. It's also strange for you to compare Sony's future technology with that of the Xbox (and not Xbox 2), which is a lot closer to being a set-top box in the living room than the PS2 right now.

Microsoft has a very good relationship with Vivendi/Universal, RCA, just to name a couple companies that could put a dent into Sony's plan to rule the living room. Things aren't so cut and dry you know.

Unfortunately, you seem to place more emphasis on attacking me rather than my arguments. You just come across as Ken Katarugi's cheerleader. Sadly, I think the only way you'll be happy is if we install a Cell-based CPU into your brain so that Sony can control you more directly.

PS: Offline I only know 6 people with Xbox besides myself. All six of them are casual gamers with no other system. Six out of seven people I've played on Xbox Live (beta testers) only own Xbox, don't like Sega games, and three of them only play sports games. One of them only owns NFL2K3. Sounds very casual to me.

Mark Cicero:

Good points on convergence. It's going to be a slow process where consumers and content providers will want assurances before fully embracing the paradigm. MS is taking the first step with downloadable content on Xbox Live and will be well on their way with this long before PS3 arrives.

Glonk:

I agree about the financial picture. Sony vs. MS is a joke financially, but don't forget that IBM is pretty powerful. Together they could mount a reasonable, but IMO somewhat weaker, challenge to MS financially. Microsoft's Cash/Equivalents are literally 20 times those of Sony (2 Billion vs. 40 Billion).

Xbox and Xbox 2 are far too important to MS for them to abandon the console. They already have 17% of the US hardware market (and about 25% of the software market). Even as Sony outsells them 2:1, they are gradually moving towards 25% of the market. They just need to get their European house in order. :)

One of the worst things that could happen to Sony is that all the hardcore gamers (who buy tons of games) get an Xbox and sap away software sales from Sony. The most powerful hardware is where the ports are usually bought when multiple systems are owned, which is why games like Max Payne did so well on the Xbox.

marconelly!

01-Oct-2002, 16:35

MS has more money (which is kinda stating the obvious), MS can use this money to position itself better. That's why it's acquiring all these talented developers as first party. Sony's getting the idea, getting TakeTwo to sign exclusively for PS2 and the like, but they don't have that kind of money to throw around.

Getting the idea? You probably were not around when Sony was getting developers left and right, some of them far more important than Rare can ever hope to be anymore. Square comes to mind among others.

Sony doesn't have as much money to throw around but:

- They throw it very wisely so far, which is not something you can always say for MS (acquiring Oddworld, paying for DtR exclusivity)

- PS2 is one of their core money making businesses. For MS, Xbox is yet another thing, that of all, right now loses money. If you think that MS will use all of their cash disposal backing up something like that, I think you are badly mistaken.

Johnny Awesome

01-Oct-2002, 16:47

By the same token, all of the losses on Xbox so far amount to only one months profit for MS. Do you think this is all that onerous a burden? I think MS is willing to lose $1 billion (one months profit) every year for the next 4 years to get Xbox into the marketplace.

On acquisitions - MS has made as many good moves as Sony. Oddworld is still a good franchise that has sold 350,000 copies on Xbox so far and the sequel will probably do a lot better. DTR was a bad idea, but who knew that Namco would make a crappy game that didn't exploit the Xbox hardware? What about Sony and 989 Studios? That's been a fiasco. It goes both ways I think.

bryanb

01-Oct-2002, 16:56

Brian,

It was called "Project Midway" because it was supposed to be halfway between a console and PC (the later implications were a coincidence). Read the book ;)

As for Ballmer, he may take business seriously, but if you read "Opening the Xbox" he was far from pleased with the whole idea. I think in one chapter, a conversation between him and Fries goes something like:

Coincidence? That's a real load of revisionist crap. I'm not saying that the name might not have had multiple meanings and "between a console and PC might be one of them", but you seriously think that a corporation with guys as bright as Microsoft come up with a name like Project Midway that is solely competing with Japanese product and you think there were not historical allusions?

Too simple minded.

Just for kicks, let's calculate XBox cost of revenue so far:

375 million for Rare
200 million for Bunjie (just an estimate)
200 million to NVidia for R&D costs
150 million for exclusives: feed money to 2nd and 3rd parties
500 million in marketing
50 million to manufacture/ship the 10 million Xbox titles that have sold
1.2 billion in hardware costs (4 million Xboxes at 300 each)

MS has already spent 2.7 Billion on the XBox.

Ok, let's calculate revenue:

150 million for the 10 million Xbox titles that have sold (15 bucks per title to MS)
800 million for hardware (average 200 to MS per Xbox)

MS has received 950 Million revenue for the XBox.

There is essentially no way that the XBox will ever produce revenue. Simply recovering the seed money that Microsoft will spend on this project over the next 2 years could take 5 to 10 years, once the product becomes profitable. They have to get hardware costs down from their current 275 bucks per box amount for that scenario to even become possible.

Oh, I forgot XBox Live costs, which are supposed to be 2 billion. Gaming has turned into a very low margin business with the recent price cuts!!! No wonder Nintendo is such a spend thrift.

Tommy

01-Oct-2002, 16:59

but who knew that Namco would make a crappy game that didn't exploit the Xbox hardware?

Namco is a joke anymore. When is the last time they made a really good game?

I think I read somewhere they are making a new Starfox game for the CUBE. ummm unless Nintendo is heavily involved in helping out Namco...it will probably suck real bad.

marconelly!

01-Oct-2002, 17:14

Namco's Ace Combat 4 is probably the best arcade airplane game made this gen. They also made Klonoa 2, and Tekken 4 is getting averaged reviews at ~ 80%.

"MS has made as many good moves as Sony"

The only really good acquisition move MS has made is getting Bungie on board. And even that hardly compares to simply making GTA franchise exclusive to PS2.

Johnny Awesome

01-Oct-2002, 17:29

Teasy

01-Oct-2002, 18:14

Extra controllers have generated around 5 million * $20 = $100 million at least.

Is that a real number or a guess?

This brings the revenue to around $378 million + $290 * 3 million + $190 * 2 million = $1.63 billion

Could you be more clear, what is all that money made from exactly?

Laa-Yosh

01-Oct-2002, 19:19

This brings the revenue to around $378 million + $290 * 3 million + $190 * 2 million = $1.63 billion

Could you be more clear, what is all that money made from exactly?

Hm, maybe software revenue + hardware revenue, you know, from the 3 + 2 million Xboxes they've sold?

Johnny Awesome

01-Oct-2002, 19:30

Sure, no problem.

Software, pre-drop Xbox units, post-drop Xbox units.

Laa-Yosh

01-Oct-2002, 19:39

Sure, no problem.

Software, pre-drop Xbox units, post-drop Xbox units.

Aren't 9 dollars of retailer profit a bit too low for those boxes?

Vince

01-Oct-2002, 20:41

Wow, are you people just absolute pestimesets or incapable us using some commoin sence??

Last time I checked e-commerce didn't really occur from the living room.

It's only a matter of time, why else do you think MS is there? because they care about Console Gamers?

This of course is contingent on a few factors. One, that they all decide to get along together.

Sony's already been rearanging itself since their Sony Meeting in Summer 2001 where they disguessed the new corperate strategy under Ando:

"Using graphs and diagrams to drive home his point, Ando insisted that Sony, the world's premier gizmo maker, was better positioned to triumph in this broadband world than any of its rivals. He went on to argue that nobody--not Samsung (SSNLF ), not Microsoft (MSFT )--had a sharper vision of how consumers would navigate superfast networks in which a single fat wire, or a sliver of radio frequency, would handle multiple layers of voice, data, and video. Already, he noted, Sony's violet-gray Vaio laptops were hits with the digerati, who liked to edit their own photos and music files and exchange them over the Web. Once broadband networks were ubiquitous, all of Sony's cameras and audio devices would meld into a seamless distribution network for Sony's movies, music, and games, supported by the company's own online shopping and financial services. "Ando's message was clear and aggressive," says Hiro Uchida, Sony's general manager for strategic ventures. "Sony faces big challenges, but Ando showed us that we're getting activated."

You know, if you guys actually did some research and used some intelligence, they're would be no fighting here....

I won't even talk of Conrgressional oversight when talking about an alliance of rivals of Microsoft who are supporting Open Source projects like Linux and OGSA.

How is it not working? MS's projections for December are 9 million. They are not, repeat NOT, expecting to take over the market in one fell swoop. This round is to establish that it isn't a joke. Next round is to scare the $hit out of sony, the third round will decide the winner or at least will provide something to keep these forums alive.

1) 9Million verse 50Million, Thats why it's not working.

Xbox3/PS4 is where the finally war in the valley of armageddon will occur

2) The war will be descided by then. This is it, who ever takes control of the living room (either MS or Sony/IBM) will get the developer and cunsumer support of their OS/Network form and we'll only see a repeat of the PS2/XBox massacure for the next generational loser.

This is assuming that they indeed wish to enter the digital entertainment market. The post-napster world has changed the way the industry has, and will, look at things. They weren't ready before now and I'd be willing to bet they arent' going to move into the digital realm until they are "certain" they can solve the essential problem of copying.

Do some research, then get back to me. I'm sick of repeating stuff and having people blow BS in my face that "kills", "mames", or otherwise "destroys" the form of system that I talk about - Yet, if you were informed would have no revelence whatsoever.

This is assuming, as Grall pointed out, that people will by peripherals. At least if MS takes over it will all be in one huge ass box beside the tv if in the home at all.[/peripherals]

I think Marconelly covered this, but I will again because it irritates me. Do you have any idea what I'm talking about? Peripherals? These aren't Computer assesories that they're trying to sell like MS:

Do you own a TV? a CD Player? Shelf Audio System? Cell Phone? DVD Player? PS2? PDA? Computer? Telephone? Or any other the thousands of other products Sony offers?

Well, then the idea is that if your going to buy any of them, you might aswell buy ones made by Sony that work together with your other Sony products effortlesly. It's [product] differentiation and convergence at the same time.

Well, if I buy the Sony Shelf Audio System, I can get music off PS3/ Sony's GRID and play them on it... cool. Or, If I buy a Sony PDA, I can control all my Sony Products.. cool. If I buy a Sony HDTV..... See it yet?

Microsofts going to put it all in one box uh? They going to start selling ready mades housing units now too???

[quote]So yeah Vince's post is food for thought but in the end acid-reflux causing heartburn is a b!tch.

Only get burned if you don't know what your talking about.

I think you're assuming everyone's a techno-geek. Provided you as Joe Consumer (or Jane for that matter) even understand the concept of this Cell/OS thing you're trumpeting and the (percieved) benefits it might offer

Ohh, I totally understand, I usually harp on people for thinking close minded that all are as well educated in this as we are.

I can't say yes or no to this as I don't have it and don't work for Sony, but I do know that I can already merge amany things in my house together if I really wanted to. But, with Windows and seperate products with seperate standards from diffrent companies, it's a total hassle like you said.

But, if everythings running the same OS, using the same hardware architecture, by the same standards, and probobly from the sam comapny.... It should (unless Sony royally fucks up) be so easy to use and add to that a frickin baby could do it.

Thats the beauty, it's all the same, based on one architecture, one OS, one standard/protocol.... I mean, common

PS. I think it's a totally cool idea and m just talking about it in the abstract, whether or not they can pull it off is another thing, but the argument is valid and the pieces fit - they just need to do it.

Vince

01-Oct-2002, 20:59

Sony also pissed off a lot of developers with the PS2. Development costs and times are FAR higher than they could have been, and it's kinda put Sony at a disadvantage. One of the reasons the PSX was so popular was how easy it was to get a game on it. The PS2 was the opposite

To add to Crazyace.. here's a hypothetical... how much more/less would a developer make if they could do away with a traditional publisher and sell it on ther 'Net. Hypothetically speaking.

Just thinking outloud, but what if - I dunno, say XBox/LIVE! - had a service where you could go there, browse threw games and descriptions and videos and select one which you'd download, decompress, and play from your HD or prefferably some form of Recordable Media (CD-R, a DVD format, ect)

Obviously, you'd need some form of DRM, ect, but hypothetically, would developers be pen to this? I'm just curious...

Faf, Archie, Ace??

nonamer

01-Oct-2002, 21:24

To add to Crazyace.. here's a hypothetical... how much more/less would a developer make if they could do away with a traditional publisher and sell it on ther 'Net. Hypothetically speaking.

:o Dismally! Since that gives no piracy protection and is the equivalent of give the software away!

bryanb

01-Oct-2002, 21:37

You're right about Namco. They are underperforming lately.

Once again, MS costs have been exagerated and their revenues are understated.

They've sold 20 millon games and have 30% 1st party penetration. This means that they have sold 6 million first party title = $30 * 6 = $180 million. The 14 million other titles have generated another $7 * 14 = $98 million. Extra controllers have generated around 5 million * $20 = $100 million at least.

This brings the revenue to around $378 million + $290 * 3 million + $190 * 2 million = $1.63 billion, which is a billion shy of the costs you cited. In other words, they aren't as far away as you think, especially when you realize that there's no way the Xbox cost more than $250 to manufacture at this point.

I imagine that MS will lose another $1 billion this year on the Xbox through June, get their 9 million users, break even in 2004 with 18 million users, and make $1-2 billion in 2005 with 27-32 million userbase, making the whole thing a wash. Not a bad way to enter the market the first time out.

Johnny what kind of strang math are you practicing?

MS didn't sell 20 million games. As of July NPD data had their numbers pegged in the US to 10 to 11 million. You can even find the NPD numbers here in a separate thread. If they said they sold 20 million then they are lying.

Since when does MS get 20 bucks for every extra controller they sell? Not hardly likely.

I also forgot to add Microsoft's own labor costs. I'd imagine they probably have a couple hundred people total on this project (dev, sales, marketing). So let's say another 80 to 100 million.

And of course their XBox Live costs. Lets peg those conservatively so far at 300 million.

3.1 Billion total Xbox expenses
0 XBox profit

Intel and Nvidia are sucking up around 80 bucks per XBox. Microsoft will never have a profitable XBox in the 200 dollar price range.

I wonder how many titles Microsoft would need to sell per Xbox to see a profit. 20? Ha, so laughable impossible.

Brimstone

01-Oct-2002, 22:11

You're right about Namco. They are underperforming lately.

Once again, MS costs have been exagerated and their revenues are understated.

They've sold 20 millon games and have 30% 1st party penetration. This means that they have sold 6 million first party title = $30 * 6 = $180 million. The 14 million other titles have generated another $7 * 14 = $98 million. Extra controllers have generated around 5 million * $20 = $100 million at least.

This brings the revenue to around $378 million + $290 * 3 million + $190 * 2 million = $1.63 billion, which is a billion shy of the costs you cited. In other words, they aren't as far away as you think, especially when you realize that there's no way the Xbox cost more than $250 to manufacture at this point.

I imagine that MS will lose another $1 billion this year on the Xbox through June, get their 9 million users, break even in 2004 with 18 million users, and make $1-2 billion in 2005 with 27-32 million userbase, making the whole thing a wash. Not a bad way to enter the market the first time out.

I have no idea about the total profit and loss sheet of Microsoft when it comes to the X-Box, but I don't think it really matters in the long run. The X-Box is about establishing a beachead in the console market and they've accomplished that. X-Box live will probably loose a lot of money also, but in the long run it will help them establish brand recognition when it comes to online gaming.

The way AOL has a huge lead over MSN is something M$ seems to have learned from. Sony is going to have to excute well to combat M$ in the console arena.

Mark Cicero

01-Oct-2002, 22:34

I don't understand why everyone is so focused on saying that if Xbox doesn't make a profit then MS has lost everything. Xbox is such a minor subsidiary at this point that it is barely mentioned at all in the year end financial reports. (And just for Vince's "prove it"-ness, there's a summary of it in part I, item I, products; and a brief mention in part I, item 7 revenue. Aside from that I can't find any more).

What if Xbox isn't supposed to make money but just try to break even? It makes a lot more sense for that senario to be in place with a 9 million projection for the end of the year than it is for there to be some sort of profit at the end of the tunnel. Once MS entered the market the rules changed, the winner win not be the one with the largest profit margin but the one who keeps consumer consciousness for two succeeding systems which brings me back to my Xbox3/PS4 will decide the war idea. As for 9 million not being close to 50 million, well, what part of "this round is to prove that its not a joke, next round is where the action will be, and the aforementioned third round ending it all" is not being understood?

Do you own a TV? a CD Player? Shelf Audio System? Cell Phone? DVD Player? PS2? PDA? Computer? Telephone? Or any other the thousands of other products Sony offers?
Well, then the idea is that if your going to buy any of them, you might aswell buy ones made by Sony that work together with your other Sony products effortlesly. It's [product] differentiation and convergence at the same time.
Well, if I buy the Sony Shelf Audio System, I can get music off PS3/ Sony's GRID and play them on it... cool. Or, If I buy a Sony PDA, I can control all my Sony Products.. cool. If I buy a Sony HDTV..... See it yet?

Just for the record, none of the electronics in my house come from sony since they generally seem to be overpriced dodads that are easily found in a much nicer, and cheaper, form outside of that pretentious religious-experience-in-electronics-temple called the sony store.

And for the record, my comment about MS putting everything into a huge ass box was originally intended to be a funny sarcastic point that would leave everyone in hysterics. Apparently I'm not as funny at 11:30 at night as I thought I was.

Gollum

01-Oct-2002, 22:47

This always has to end in a pissing contests? Anyway, both sides have made some valid points, no need to repeat them.

It amazes me though, how some people always think they can predict the future. Like Vince, man calm down a bit about all those great Sony products you keep raging about, I am not following this forum closely but you really do sound like you get paid for this. Like it or not, a large majority of people just buys products without considering how their devices can work together flawlessly with their game console and that isn't going to change within the next few years. You are taking a niche group of people (enthusiasts and in your case apparently Sony fans while at it) and concluding from there to how you think the rest of the population will make their purchasing decisions in the next several years? Not bloody likely, it doesn't work that way! And even so, assuming people care about their cellphone integrating with their DVD-Player, you completely fail to mention that there are dozens of other great manufacturers of electronic goods out there that often make even better products than Sony and offer tham at a better price too! Surprise, they can offer most of what Sony offer too, sans a game console maybe but so what? For Sony's living-room dominance you preach about to happen, they'd first need to butcher their competition in all those other markets to carry more weight (or co-operate on common standards, which given their past doesn't seem very likely), otherwise its not gonna make a whole lot of a difference in this "war"...

marconelly!

01-Oct-2002, 23:16

but the one who keeps consumer consciousness for two succeeding systems
Maybe you should expand that to 'three' because PS2 has sure done a great job in keeping and expanding consumer consciousness from PS1 ;)

Just for the record, none of the electronics in my house come from sony since they generally seem to be overpriced dodads that are easily found in a much nicer, and cheaper, form outside of that pretentious religious-experience-in-electronics-temple called the sony store.
I have no idea how you got such weird impression about their stores, but know that you are, at the very least, depriving yourself of some of the best display technologies available today.

I hope you realize that it's just as silly as people depriving themselves of Microsoft products because they have personal issues with the company's politics.

For Sony's living-room dominance you preach about to happen, they'd first need to butcher their competition in all those other markets to carry more weight
It is my impression they have already done that. Their home electronic devices are by far most sold (from the stats I saw in some magazine once)

zurich

02-Oct-2002, 00:02

I thought Panasonic/Mashitsiaiurusiua was #1.

Besides, Sony doesnt have any offerings for the very very large $199 crowd that Zenith/RCA soaks up. Much like how the TNT2 Vanta was NVIDIAs cashcow for the past many years, low end = market penetration.

zurich

Johnny Awesome

02-Oct-2002, 02:02

Bryanb:

Xbox is running at a 4.3:1 software ratio (probably higher now) and MS has sold roughly 5 million Xbox units. That's around 20 million games (I underestimated it actually). Even if you're right and MS has lost 1.3 billion or something, it's inconsequential. It's a long term investment in the entertainment market that will eventually pay off in spades.

General thoughts:

Sony's HDTVs don't offer as good value as other brands for instance, but they are pretty nice televisions. Their DVD players are a mixed bag, but sell fairly well. They aren't dominating the market or anything. Bluetooth is catching on pretty fast though. Sony better hurry up unless they want to confuse the market.

Besides, do you honestly think the US government is going to allow a foreign company to control the creation, sales, and delivery of all electronic entertainment? Dream on.

The problem I have with some Sony advocates (not all, mind you) is that it's a constantly moving target. When the DC had better games, it was wait for Sony games with kick ass graphics. When the PS2 finally arrived it was lacklustre visually and many Sony fans started saying "it's all about the gameplay".

Now that the Xbox has arrived with a 4-ports/hard drive/ethernet which add significant features and gameplay improvements (see Blinx, Project Ego, Xbox Live, audio ripping, no memory cards) that consumers will eventually warm up to and developers are embracing, the Xbox software library is catching up to the PS2. Now it's no longer about the games. Now it's about the amazing "cell and PS3".

It's all smoke and mirrors, but if you look at the situation objectively Microsoft has 5 million set top boxes out there with network capabilities and mass store and Sony has around 150,000. If Sony fans really think that everything is about digital home entertainment centers this generation (which it isn't, it's about games) then Sony may as well pack it in right now.

I have a love of Xbox and welcome MS as competition to Sony (but I'm not a huge MS fan), but I'm not blind to the problems Xbox faces: No Japanese RPG franchises of worth, poor sales in Japan, apprehensive European market, newbie status, no backwards PSX compatibility, 30 million units behind Sony, only around 1/2 the number of titles this year in the US as the PS2.

But I'm also not blind to their strengths: MS money and persistence, huge western developer support, great hardware, ability to absorb losses unnoticed by shareholders, great marketing advantage through PCs, .NET proliferation, good partnerships with companies like RCA, Vivendi Universal, NVidia, Intel, AMD, solid online strategy, more flexible hardware (hard drive, 4-ports, ethernet).

This is going to be a good fight. Sony will win Round 1, but Round 2 will be VERY interesting, despite the fact that many people seem to think that Sony/IMB/AOL/Toshiba/Cell are going to steamroll the world without MS/Phillips/Vivendi Universal/RCA/Verizon/NVidia/Intel/AMD/ and others doing anything about it.

Think about how hard it is to explain the Xbox hardware advantages to consumers who are used to the same thing over and over, let alone "crazy concepts" like cell. Sony has some hurdles of their own up ahead.

Glonk

02-Oct-2002, 03:32

Hi Glonk,

I think you'll find that the high dev costs are for any projects on next gen consoles, not just PS2.... This is more to do with the high expectations in terms of audio and graphics more than anything else..
High end 3D art packages have historically cost as much as devkits...
Many developers have stated that they've needed to employ several programmers whose sole job was optimizing the code for the VUs on the PS2, otherwise performance wouldn't be as good as it should be. Because it's also so much more difficult, it adds to the length of time it takes to makes games, which also increases costs...

It's not cheap on any platform, but PS2 is the most expensive. It's the most restricted hardware wise, and easiest to bottleneck.

bryanb

02-Oct-2002, 04:04

Bryanb:

Xbox is running at a 4.3:1 software ratio (probably higher now) and MS has sold roughly 5 million Xbox units.

I'm just not interested in a 4.3:1 number. Where did it come from? Its a magical mystery number fabricated by Microsoft.

I can show you NPD numbers on this site that detail the top 500 selling games from July of this year. You can total the numbers up for yourself. Its shows the Xbox having shipped around 7 to 8 million games and NPD admits to only polling 80% of total sales.

So where did the other 10 million games that the Xbox shipped come from? Not from the EU. More magical mystery numbers.

Are you familiar with NPD? They report facts on the console industry. Unless you can show me FACTS about which games made up the 20 million figure for the XBox, then I have no choice but to believe it as pure MS marketing speal.

StefanS

02-Oct-2002, 04:41

General thoughts:

Sony's HDTVs don't offer as good value as other brands for instance, but they are pretty nice televisions. Their DVD players are a mixed bag, but sell fairly well. They aren't dominating the market or anything. Bluetooth is catching on pretty fast though. Sony better hurry up unless they want to confuse the market.

As far as I know Sony is supporting bluetooth, especially since they teamed up with Erricson, developer of bluetooth, to create the brand SonyErricson for the mobile market. I have always liked Erricson, so to me their new mobiles seem to be very good.

But some of their other accessories aren't. E.g.: Their cybershot, which is not a very good product. Average resolution, no good optics and only few lumen.

Now that the Xbox has arrived with a 4-ports/hard drive/ethernet which add significant features and gameplay improvements (see Blinx, Project Ego, Xbox Live, audio ripping, no memory cards) that consumers will eventually warm up to and developers are embracing, the Xbox software library is catching up to the PS2. Now it's no longer about the games. Now it's about the amazing "cell and PS3".

Frankly, only very few Xbox games use the 4 gamepadports. For people who want to play with 3 fellows the GCN is obvisously the better choice. BTW I would not count that as an improvement since this feature has been arround since the N64.

But audioripping and the use of the harddisk is adding to the gameplay. Especially if you're not satified with the sound track of a game.As far the hard disk it has been only integrated into the gameplay by one game (Blinx) so far, so we'll see how this will develope.

But the harddisk has also some downsides: Piracy. You can already get copies of several Xbox titles fairly easy on the Net and play them with a modchip. That's why MS had to alter their design of the Xbox and this has caused some additional costs I guess.

aneep

02-Oct-2002, 09:13

Teasy

02-Oct-2002, 11:05

Sure, no problem.

Software, pre-drop Xbox units, post-drop Xbox units.

Ok, where does the $378 million come from though?

BTW I hadn't heard that XBox hit 5 million sold. What are the current worldwide sales for the big three consoles, anyone know?

Also could you answer my other question, how do you know that they've sold 5 million extra controllers?

PC-Engine

02-Oct-2002, 11:33

I have:

1. Digital camera from Fuji that doesn't use Magic gate memory sticks.
2. Two DVD players, one from JVC and another from Panasonic.
3. TV from JVC and a big screen from Mitsubishi.
4. MiniDV camcorder from JVC.
5. Receiver from Yamaha.
6. Speakers from AR.
7. GC from Nintendo.
8. DC from SEGA.
9. Laptop from Fujitsu.
10. 5 home built PCs with monitors from NEC.
11. Car stereo from Alpine, amp and speakers from Pioneer.
12. Cellphone from Samsung.

...and I would prefer to keep it that way :wink:

BenSkywalker

02-Oct-2002, 14:05

I can show you NPD numbers on this site that detail the top 500 selling games from July of this year. You can total the numbers up for yourself. Its shows the Xbox having shipped around 7 to 8 million games and NPD admits to only polling 80% of total sales.

So where did the other 10 million games that the Xbox shipped come from? Not from the EU. More magical mystery numbers.

Through July with the XBox still moving ~200K units a month. Figure for two months sales and the tie in ratio and you have ~1.7Million games sold. Then you have the launch numers. Roughly 1.4Million consoles with a 3.1 tie in IIRC. That's another 4.2Million titles sold. Then you have NPD's dreams of what they cover. 80%? Likely closer to 60%. Check NPDs yearly breakout of publisher revenue for the US versus the financial results for the market by those publishers in their financial statements. NPD covers roughly 60% of the gaming market.

I'm not going to get into the extended debate, but Johnny's numbers appear to be quite sound to me.

Sony electronic equiptment..... Has anyone bought anything durable from Sony in the last ~ten years?

marconelly!

02-Oct-2002, 15:08

"Besides, do you honestly think the US government is going to allow a foreign company to control the creation, sales, and delivery of all electronic entertainment? Dream on."

IF there's a standard established, they will accept it and other hardware makers will adopt it. Like a DVD. I think the whole thing with Sony and IBM is going in that direction, and Sony has said numerous times how they would like it best if PS2, GC and XB players could play against each other online.

"When the DC had better games, it was wait for Sony games with kick ass graphics. When the PS2 finally arrived it was lacklustre visually and many Sony fans started saying "it's all about the gameplay"

Tekken Tag was better looking than Soul Calibur in every technical aspect imaginable, and was a launch game. I don't understand how could anyone argue from that point on that PS2 has worse graphics.

Magnum PI

02-Oct-2002, 16:36

Sony electronic equiptment..... Has anyone bought anything durable from Sony in the last ~ten years?

i have a VVEGA TV. one year and still working :)

but what is durable now ?

bryanb

02-Oct-2002, 16:45

Through July with the XBox still moving ~200K units a month.

Its very debatable that the XBox has sold 5 million. It might have shipped 5 million but its highly unlikely to have sold 5 million. Microsoft can warehouse as many XBoxes as they want to. It doesn't do much for their bottom line.

The best estimates are that XBox having sold around 2.8 million in the US up to June of this year.

Again, more NPD from the USA numbers:

XBox in July: 159,000
XBox in August: 137,000

Now exactly how has XBox sold 5 million?

It would be nice if you guys could come up with numbers from real sources. Simply quoting Microsoft press releases doesn't lend you much credibility.

BenSkywalker

02-Oct-2002, 16:56

BenSkywalker

02-Oct-2002, 17:04

The best estimates are that XBox having sold around 2.8 million in the US up to June of this year.

Again, more NPD from the USA numbers:

XBox in July: 159,000
XBox in August: 137,000

Now exactly how has XBox sold 5 million?

Based on NPD numbers which are not, never have been and probably never will be absolute. Using the typical deviation between NPD and real numbers, the July sales would be ~265,000 with August at ~229,000 on top of 4.67Million.

It would be nice if you guys could come up with numbers from real sources. Simply quoting Microsoft press releases doesn't lend you much credibility.

This discussion has been done to death on these boards. NPD represents ~60% of the marketplace. When discussing absolute numbers you need to extrapolate off of the figures NPD provides. I've already stated how you can prove the general guideline of 60% is correct and I've been through this discussion too many times to bother going through the whole thing again.

It doesn't matter if it is Sony, MS or Nintendo numbers. NPD figures*1.67~=actual numbers. NPD gives you a guideline on sales trends, that is it. You can use the relative numbers they provide between hardware and software across platforms, you can not use them as absolutes.

mkillio

02-Oct-2002, 17:19

Sony electronic equiptment..... Has anyone bought anything durable from Sony in the last ~ten years?

I have a Trinitron from '91 or '92 and it still works fine.

Magnum PI

02-Oct-2002, 17:21

but what is durable now ?

My Panasonic SuperFlat is six years old and has yet to have so much as a hint of a problem, that should be an absolute given. I have a 19" TV that I have had for fourteen years that still works without any problems, that shouldn't be impressive except it was fairly cheap when new. My ColecoVision still works, as does my original 8bit NES. I have a stereo system from 1972 that still works fully(was my grandfather's and I kept it as it had a record player and they had stopped making them for several years). I also have a JVC VCR from 1980(top loader, manual nobs to "tune in" channels) which still works without issue.

OK.. but it's *old* equipment.

i wasn't questionning ancient equipments durability but contemporary ones. (whats is durable *now* ?)

if you buy a recent VCR at a decent price, it wont last for twenty years.. not to speak about a playstation..

If a piece of electronic equiptment dies within five years its junk in terms of durability IMO. Five to ten years is poor. Ten to fifteen is OK. Fifteen to twenty is good. Twenty and up is great, all IMO.

if they wanted, manufacturer could make freezers that would last twenty years (they had in a first time) but they intentionnaly make equipments that won't last for ten years..

i'm afraid most of the contemporary equipments won't last for much more than seven years. like it was programmed to die after 7 years, like a nexus :) .

maskrider

02-Oct-2002, 17:28

Sony electronic equiptment..... Has anyone bought anything durable from Sony in the last ~ten years?

Bought my Sony Trinitron TV in 93 and it is still working very fine, may be too fine that I want it to fail (my wife doesn't let me buy another if the current one is still working :( ).

My first batch PS2 (SCPH-10000) and PSX are still working fine, my old Sony mini MD/CD/Cassette combo is also working fine.

bryanb

02-Oct-2002, 17:36

This discussion has been done to death on these boards. NPD represents ~60% of the marketplace. When discussing absolute numbers you need to extrapolate off of the figures NPD provides. I've already stated how you can prove the general guideline of 60% is correct and I've been through this discussion too many times to bother going through the whole thing again.

Ok, then point me to a link that can back up your claim that NPD is only 60% of total sales. More magical mystery numbers.

NPD is more like 85% accurate. The only major US retailer that they do not survey is Walmart. Walmart ain't pushing 40% of consoles and games. And Walmart + the small fries that are not included in the NPD data is NOT 40% of the market.

Why do you just make these things up? Why isn't NPD only 30% accurate? You could then shoot higher. You could claim that XBox has shipped 7 million.

BenSkywalker

02-Oct-2002, 17:42

I have a Trinitron from '91 or '92 and it still works fine.

Bought my Sony Trinitron TV in 93 and it is still working very fine, may be too fine that I want it to fail

I have to say I'm surprised. This is the first I've heard of a Sony product made in the last ten years lasting that long.

My first batch PS2 (SCPH-10000) and PSX are still working fine

Any PS2s failing at this point are clearly due to complete and utter failure on Sony's part to try and make something that works. Any component should last two years under pretty much any condition.

You have a launch PSX that still works? Really? Haven't heard of any of those lasting longer then two years(most failed within the first year).

Magnum-

OK.. but it's *old* equipment.

i wasn't questionning ancient equipments durability but contemporary ones. (whats is durable *now* ?)

I have objects listed from '72 to '96. Planned failure was rumored to be the norm back in the early 80s(there is a pop culture reference to it in the movie 'Gremlins') and most of the components I listed are from that era or newer.

i'm afraid most of the contemporary equipments won't last for much more than seven years.

A good deal of my home theater setup is from '96, I'll let you know if it all dies on my next year ;) (currently planning on picking up a Tau, that would change if my SF died on me).

BenSkywalker

02-Oct-2002, 17:48

Ok, then point me to a link that can back up your claim that NPD is only 60% of total sales.

I've told you how to prove it for yourself. Check NPDs sales figures versus financial reports from the companies they cover. If that is too much for you then that is your problem. As I stated previously, this applied equally to Sony, Nintendo and MS. You think I'm some XBox fanboy or something? If so, you are obviously new here.

Why do you just make these things up?

You start off with next to no credibility when you are new, you are losing the small portion you start off with by default. This board did not appear for your benefit, we have been around for some time and topics that have been covered extensively will not be gone over again because a rude new member thinks he is important enough to make it so.

maskrider

02-Oct-2002, 17:50

My first batch PS2 (SCPH-10000) and PSX are still working fine

Any PS2s failing at this point are clearly due to complete and utter failure on Sony's part to try and make something that works. Any component should last two years under pretty much any condition.

You have a launch PSX that still works? Really? Haven't heard of any of those lasting longer then two years(most failed within the first year).

I was not being clear on the wordings in my previous post on my PSX, my PSX is not a launch PSX but still has worked 6 years without a flaw.

My Japanese PS2 is a launch PS2, but for sure I've read reports on failed PS2, too.

May be I am lucky or may be they are just unlucky.

bryanb

02-Oct-2002, 18:27

I've told you how to prove it for yourself. Check NPDs sales figures versus financial reports from the companies they cover.

You start off with next to no credibility when you are new, you are losing the small portion you start off with by default.

So you want me to compare Microsoft financial reports to NPD data and somehow infer how accurate NPD is from that? Have you looked at Microsoft's quarterly reports? You think you can pull out total XBox shipments from numbers? And this is going to allow me to arrive at the magical mystery number of 60% for NPD console hardware reporting?

Geez, talk about a lack of credibility. I think you take the cake on that one.

I will always be rude when confronted with someone who enters a discussion with ZERO facts. I have no reason or desire to be rude when discussing a subject with someone who isn't simply fabricating things.

marconelly!

02-Oct-2002, 20:38

Ben you have some pretty screwed experiences if you can even ask for people to tell you what Sony product in the last 10 years hasn't failed.

Everything I have from them has always worked perfectly, as it is for all the people I know. Maybe it's just our good luck, I don't know...

Btw, financial reports probably list shipped units, and NPD tracks sold to consumer units, no? Besides, NPD knows how much ground they cover (it's 80% I think) and they estimate and increase their numbers accordingly. I'll double check this, but I think their numbers should not be additionaly increased, as they do that themselves.

Vince

02-Oct-2002, 20:52

Any PS2s failing at this point are clearly due to complete and utter failure on Sony's part to try and make something that works. Any component should last two years under pretty much any condition.

:roll: Ben, you know I respect you, but you sound like Johnney.. and thats not a good thing.

You have a launch PSX that still works? Really? Haven't heard of any of those lasting longer then two years(most failed within the first year).

I have a launch PSX, Genesis and a NES without the cartridge cover that all work.

The only problem I've ever had was with an N64 which would overheat and refuse to work. We remedied this in the short term by freezing it that night so we could play :) Then just took it back.

Two years? What the hell do you your consoles? I mean, either you guys are spewing rubblish, or you genuinly have a problem with taking care of your property... Which after looking (and smelling) the sterotypical guy at E3, may be the cause :wink:

As for my descusion about PS3/Destributed content - I'm goijg to shut up and just let it play out. People don't want to think and learn with an open mind and I don't have the time or patients for this.

PS. I've never been in a Sony Store.

Vince

02-Oct-2002, 21:04

XBox in July: 159,000
XBox in August: 137,000

To this:

Based on NPD numbers which are not, never have been and probably never will be absolute. Using the typical deviation between NPD and real numbers, the July sales would be ~265,000 with August at ~229,000 on top of 4.67Million.

Wow... This is amazing. And your saying he has no respect/authority...

Lets do an experiement using your logic as shown here:

]NPD represents ~60% of the marketplace. When discussing absolute numbers you need to extrapolate off of the figures NPD provides

Ok, lets extrapolate:

PS2's NPD #'s for August are ~ 450,000

Thus, now, correct me if I'm wrong: we need to find the missing 40%:

450,000 = x * 60%
450,000 = x * 0.60
450,000/0.60 = x

x = 750,000

Thus, they sold 3/4ths of a Million PS2's in August Alone!!!

Wow, are you willing to conceed that? Thats outragous... but all corect in Ben's eyes.

PS. I hear they're starting to follow in Japan's footsteps and are now using the 30M PS2's stockpiled in Sony's enormous warehouse for public work projects like house building and bridge contruction - So, perhaps it makes sence.

Johnny Awesome

02-Oct-2002, 21:41

Ignoring the ignorant Vince for a second, Ben wouldn't it be closer to 70% for NPD, since Halo hit one million about about the same time that it's NPD numbers were around 700,000? That sounds a little more reasonable, but you would probably know better than anyone around here.

Vince

02-Oct-2002, 21:53

Ignoring the ignorant Vince for a second

ig·no·rant (gnr-nt)
adj.

-Lacking education or knowledge.
-Showing or arising from a lack of education or knowledge: an ignorant mistake.
-Unaware or uninformed

Hmm... Care to point out what was lacking education or knowledge? All I did is use Ben's established rules, I guess then indirectly, you called him ignorant.

Johnny Awesome

02-Oct-2002, 22:06

As in - ignorant of proper social behavior. I suppose I'll add arrogant to the list, since you seem to think that your opinion of the market is unquestionable. Of course, all you do is quote Sony press releases and the standard industry line.

Try putting some independent thinking into something for a change. I think we've all seen those GDC slides about 500 times. Why is it so puzzling that many people around here think you're just blowing Sony smoke most of the time?

Why don't we just agree to disagree and leave it at that? I won't take any more shots at you if you don't take any more at me. I don't want to poison the forums with our antics.

dee

02-Oct-2002, 22:24

IGNORANT - adjective - lacking knowledge or awareness in general; uneducated or unsophisticated: he was told constantly that he was ignorant and stupid

[predic.] lacking knowledge, information, or awareness about something in particular: they were ignorant of astronomy

informal discourteous or rude: this ignorant, pin-brained receptionist

black English easily angered: I is an ignorant man - even police don't meddle with me.

BenSkywalker

03-Oct-2002, 02:18

Vince-

Thus, they sold 3/4ths of a Million PS2's in August Alone!!!

Wow, are you willing to conceed that? Thats outragous... but all corect in Ben's eyes.

Why is it outrageous? Check out Sony's shipped numbers for North America this year from January to the most recent release. It has gone up 6-7Million units. Obviously not all of those have sold, but the PS2 also hasn't put up those kind of NPD numbers every month either not to mention that there was already on hand stock at the beginning of the year.

Think of it this way. We know the PS2 sells the best in the US along with all of the other consoles. If the PS2 sold 450,000 a months in each territory every single month it would take them almost thirty months to hit forty million units. Think about that. Nearly two and a half years if it sold 450K units every single month in each territory. Change that to 750K and it works out to about eighteen months. Which do you think is closer to the truth?

Ben, you know I respect you, but you sound like Johnney.. and thats not a good thing.

This in regard to PS2s failing. Let me ask you Vince, is your PS2 still working? Would you expect anyone's PS2 to be dead by this point? I would say the same thing about any XBox or Cube too. The only difference I see between all three of them is that Nintendo gives you a year warranty instead of ninety days.

Two years? What the hell do you your consoles? I mean, either you guys are spewing rubblish, or you genuinly have a problem with taking care of your property... Which after looking (and smelling) the sterotypical guy at E3, may be the cause ;)

For the launch era PSX? Having one die inside of two years is the norm, not the exception. The CD drives in them crapped out early and frequently. This has been covered by pretty much every major gaming publication along with being the norm for end users.

Johnny-

Ignoring the ignorant Vince for a second, Ben wouldn't it be closer to 70% for NPD, since Halo hit one million about about the same time that it's NPD numbers were around 700,000? That sounds a little more reasonable, but you would probably know better than anyone around here.

MS was actually using NPD numbers for their press releases for a while in terms of game sales as they were for console sales through Q1 of this year(were you taking part in the conversation we had at the time about that?). That gave them a chance to change up to actual sales or shipped numbers at the drop of a hat and help cover any slow periods over the course of the year.

The easiest way to do it is to compare say Nintendo's(or EA's or Activisions- whoever) NA software sales in dollars versus NPDs year end results for them based on their figures. It works out to roughly 60%. It will be higher or lower then that in pretty much any given circumstance, titles that are particularly popular with the younger demogrpahic will be particularly smaller using NPDs figures as they don't track WM. Take a title like that Britney dancing game and NPD likely reported less then half its total sales as it only would appeal to much younger gamers and likely sold at WM considerably better then at dedicated gaming stores on a comparitive basis.

How many games have you guys purchased at Wal-Mart this generation just as anecdotal evidence? I don't have a dedicated gaming store within a half hour drive of where I live, thirteen out of the fifteen Cube games I have came from WM(eleven) or KMart(two) with two out of three of my Box games coming from WM(one from EB- my local WM never got Morrowind in for XB).

marconelly!

03-Oct-2002, 04:42

If the PS2 sold 450,000 a months in each territory every single month it would take them almost thirty months to hit forty million units. Think about that. Nearly two and a half years if it sold 450K units every single month in each territory. Change that to 750K and it works out to about eighteen months.

But how can you say something like this? It's not like sales are nearly as constant. Sales for christmas period are outrageously higher than the rest of the year.

What I don't understand is why NPD can't make their numbers correct just by increasing them as you suggest? Are their mathematicians so incompetent they can't just increase their numbers by 40% and make them perfectly true to life? :-?

If they intentionally don't increase the numbers (although I'm pretty sure they actually say they do) why don't they say the numbers are just for the ~60% of the total market?

Johnny Awesome

03-Oct-2002, 05:31

Because their claim is that they have 85% coverage. They don't want to admit they only have 60% coverage (your arguments make sense Ben).

This would place the PS2 around 17 million in the US, but that's actually believable at this point, with Japan at 11 and Europe at around 8 million, this would put Sony at 36 million, which is pretty reasonable given their press releases. Something like that.

The Xbox would be about 5 million world-wide, and the Gamecube would be closer to 7 million. Sony has 75% of the market right now, but they are slowly settling in to around 65% if present trends continue and will probably drop to a least 60% by the end of 2003. Who knows what 2004 and 2005 will bring, but there's still a lot of room left for MS and Nintendo to surge a little at the end.

BenSkywalker

03-Oct-2002, 12:07

But how can you say something like this? It's not like sales are nearly as constant. Sales for christmas period are outrageously higher than the rest of the year.

You are right, and the PS2 sells outmost as well in the US as it does in Europe and Japan combined, there is a lot of leeway in the numbers to allow for seasonal fluctuation.

Johnny-

This would place the PS2 around 17 million in the US, but that's actually believable at this point, with Japan at 11 and Europe at around 8 million, this would put Sony at 36 million, which is pretty reasonable given their press releases.

Sony released a statement about a month ago saying they had hit forty million shipped, figure for units in the pipe and it matches up with NPD covering about ~60% of the market(funny how that works isn't it ;) ).

The Xbox would be about 5 million world-wide, and the Gamecube would be closer to 7 million.

IBM had a press release about a month ago saying they had recently shipped their ten millionth processor for the Cube. Given the amount of time it takes to move them from VT to Japan, manufacturer them, ship them and sell them I'd say the 7Million figure is about right based on that alone(although it also agrees with my estimation anyway). The Box being at 5Million is where it is almost certainly at right now. There is an extensive amount of evidence that shows NPD covers ~60% of the market and nothing showing they cover 80% except their statement(which oddly enough hasn't changed despite WM being the largest growing retailer in the world.... wonder why that is).